Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[ChrisFromNJ]

September 20, 2008
Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 44%(nc)

[Rowan]

It doesn't come out till 1 PM, where are you getting this from?

[ChrisFromNJ]

It doesn't come out till 1 PM, where are you getting this from?

[Verily]

It doesn't come out till 1 PM, where are you getting this from?

Someone at Kos changed the image url to get the image above on the previous page.

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080920DailyUpdateGraph1_jkdelad.gif

[Brittain33]

This pretty much rules out the number series someone posted above which were in conflict with Gallup's write-up of a good Thursday sample... that would require an O +11% sample last night while Rasmussen was finding McCain +1.5%. 

[Rowan]

Must have been a big night for Obama, considering a big night rolled off.

Extremely disappointed with these numbers.

[Tender Branson]

The average of the 4 tracking polls today:

Obama - 48.25%
McCain - 44.25%

[Lunar]

Are all three polls three day rolling averages?  I haven't checked the Kos or Diago since I find them less interesting.

[Tender Branson]

Are all three polls three day rolling averages?  I haven't checked the Kos or Diago since I find them less interesting.

Yes, but they use smaller daily samples of about 300.

Gallup and Rasmussen use a daily sample of roughly 1000.

[Democratic Hawk]

Extremely disappointed with these numbers.

I'm not

[Kaine for Senate '18]

September 20, 2008
Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 44%(nc)

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

[Ronnie]

I furthermore concede this election to the Democrats.

[Democratic Hawk]

September 20, 2008
Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 44%(nc)

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Here's Frank Newport's take:

Obama has held at least a small margin over McCain in each of the last four daily reports, generally coincident with the start of the Wall Street financial meltdown that began to dominate the news on Monday this past week. Separate Gallup consumer confidence tracking has shown that Americans' views of the economy deteriorated as the week progressed, and that Americans also began to express increased personal worry about their own finances. There is thus a reasonable inference that Obama's gains may, in part, be related to the way in which the public viewed his and McCain's response to the financial crisis. Friday's economic news was a bit more positive, with the announcement of a pending major U.S. government bailout for the country's economy, and the second day of significant increases in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other stock market indices. It remains to be seen if this will affect Obama's lead in the days ahead.

Obama's current 50% rating matches his 50% record high reached just after the Democratic National Convention. (That came in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30-Sept. 1.) However, his current six percentage point advantage is not as large as the nine-point lead he held in late July and an eight-point lead after the Democratic National Convention in late August. It is important to note that McCain recovered and moved ahead after each of these Obama high points, suggesting that it is certainly possible that McCain could recover in this situation as well.

Both candidates will be on stage at the University of Mississippi this coming Friday for the first of three presidential debates, and the public's reactions to the candidates' performances there could certainly have an impact on their election standing.

[minionofmidas]

I furthermore concede this election to the Democrats.

NOOO! Don't jinx it!

[Keystone Phil]

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Is it at least comortable underneath that rock?

[J. J.]

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Is it at least comortable underneath that rock?

Serious answer is the market, which has cooled (did it end the week up?).

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

y r gallup and ras diverging?

[© tweed]

y r gallup and ras diverging?

Ras hard-weights for party ID, Gallup doesn't, making the latter more prone to swings

[Sam Spade]

Extremely disappointed with these numbers.

You know, it is quite possible that your guesstimates are wrong here and that Gallup's statement from Thursday is correct (which translated to me into being at O+7 or better because there were a couple of samples during the DNC/aftermath which were greater than O+6 - after Hillary and Labor Day)

It would make more sense, also as compared to the rest of the tracking polls.

In other words, if Sunday is the mean, with McCain up 1-2, as I figured then, we see this type of pattern:

Monday:  Huge McCain dropoff
Tuesday:  McCain gain, but not to the level of Sunday
Wednesday:  Reversion of McCain back to Monday's levels
Thursday:  Another McCain dropoff, below Monday and Wednesday
Friday:  McCain gain, but not to the level of Tuesday

What this means in terms of actual numbers is your own guess...    Remember, I always have tended to believe that public perception in polling lags a day or so behind actual events, but that's just me.  Vorlon may disagree, actually.

[Rowan]

I'll agree, my numbers may be off here, I may have to relook at my calculations. But my Rasmussen numbers are indeed pretty precise.

[Sam Spade]

I'll agree, my numbers may be off here, I may have to relook at my calculations. But my Rasmussen numbers are indeed pretty precise.

Well, if you're getting them from a premium member, they ought to be. 

[RJ]

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Is it at least comortable underneath that rock?

Serious answer is the market, which has cooled (did it end the week up?).

I'll comment on this as well, even though I don't like to do that very much.

The market is probably the majority of the reason, but I also think Palin is losing some of her momentum in this campaign. She had the blip in the interview in which she wasn't clear on the Bush Doctrine and now there's this issue with her husband not testifying in the state trooper scandal. She's supposed to be the biggest asset McCain has in his campaign, but it's not showing right now. The Market thing will pass (hopefully there won't be another thing like this happen for Mac's sake) but as small as these two incidents are, this could be the more drastic long term issue. Republicans everywhere better hope a pattern isn't developing.

[mypalfish]

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Is it at least comortable underneath that rock?

Serious answer is the market, which has cooled (did it end the week up?).

I'll comment on this as well, even though I don't like to do that very much.

The market is probably the majority of the reason, but I also think Palin is losing some of her momentum in this campaign. She had the blip in the interview in which she wasn't clear on the Bush Doctrine and now there's this issue with her husband not testifying in the state trooper scandal. She's supposed to be the biggest asset McCain has in his campaign, but it's not showing right now. The Market thing will pass (hopefully there won't be another thing like this happen for Mac's sake) but as small as these two incidents are, this could be the more drastic long term issue. Republicans everywhere better hope a pattern isn't developing.

Without Palin, McCain never would have taken the lead.

What I can't understand is with Obama taking complete command of the race, why is there all this whining about racism doing him in?  He and his surrogates (mainstream media) really do think he's the Messiah and he is entitled to win, having to expend little to no effort.  The guy has NOTHING to complain or be worried about.  His beyond favorable...more like fawning...coverage by the MSM is probably good for 2-3 pts that he wouldn't have if he was covered like a mere mortal.

[TomC]

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Is it at least comortable underneath that rock?

Serious answer is the market, which has cooled (did it end the week up?).

I'll comment on this as well, even though I don't like to do that very much.

The market is probably the majority of the reason, but I also think Palin is losing some of her momentum in this campaign. She had the blip in the interview in which she wasn't clear on the Bush Doctrine and now there's this issue with her husband not testifying in the state trooper scandal. She's supposed to be the biggest asset McCain has in his campaign, but it's not showing right now. The Market thing will pass (hopefully there won't be another thing like this happen for Mac's sake) but as small as these two incidents are, this could be the more drastic long term issue. Republicans everywhere better hope a pattern isn't developing.

Without Palin, McCain never would have taken the lead.

What I can't understand is with Obama taking complete command of the race, why is there all this whining about racism doing him in?  He and his surrogates (mainstream media) really do think he's the Messiah and he is entitled to win, having to expend little to no effort.  The guy has NOTHING to complain or be worried about.  His beyond favorable...more like fawning...coverage by the MSM is probably good for 2-3 pts that he wouldn't have if he was covered like a mere mortal.

The GOP convention would have still given McCain a decent boost without Palin; might've even given him a smaller but more lasting boost if his message of bipartisanship wasn't undercut by the tones of others' speeches.

I agree that Obama shouldn't complain about racism. Though the "messiah" thing from the right is wearing just as thin.

I disagree Obama is in complete command of the race. I only recall one poll with him at 50%, and none with him over 50%. No one has really held a commanding lead in a Presidential race since 1996.

[mypalfish]

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Is it at least comortable underneath that rock?

Serious answer is the market, which has cooled (did it end the week up?).

I'll comment on this as well, even though I don't like to do that very much.

The market is probably the majority of the reason, but I also think Palin is losing some of her momentum in this campaign. She had the blip in the interview in which she wasn't clear on the Bush Doctrine and now there's this issue with her husband not testifying in the state trooper scandal. She's supposed to be the biggest asset McCain has in his campaign, but it's not showing right now. The Market thing will pass (hopefully there won't be another thing like this happen for Mac's sake) but as small as these two incidents are, this could be the more drastic long term issue. Republicans everywhere better hope a pattern isn't developing.

Without Palin, McCain never would have taken the lead.

What I can't understand is with Obama taking complete command of the race, why is there all this whining about racism doing him in?  He and his surrogates (mainstream media) really do think he's the Messiah and he is entitled to win, having to expend little to no effort.  The guy has NOTHING to complain or be worried about.  His beyond favorable...more like fawning...coverage by the MSM is probably good for 2-3 pts that he wouldn't have if he was covered like a mere mortal.

The GOP convention would have still given McCain a decent boost without Palin; might've even given him a smaller but more lasting boost if his message of bipartisanship wasn't undercut by the tones of others' speeches.

I agree that Obama shouldn't complain about racism. Though the "messiah" thing from the right is wearing just as thin.

I disagree Obama is in complete command of the race. I only recall one poll with him at 50%, and none with him over 50%. No one has really held a commanding lead in a Presidential race since 1996.

Jesus Christ himself returning from Heaven wouldn't get as favorable coverage as Obama giving a speech.

As far as bipartisanship goes, it's total bunk.  Obama's numbers rose and McCain's fell when he unleashed negative attack ads (radio and tv) against McCain that are running an incredible amount in Wisconsin.  Negative campaigning works.

And, imo, there is no way McCain can possibly win when the MSM literally acts like it's on the Obama campaign's payroll.  That's just the reality of the situation.