Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

We could see a trend to McCain (about where Obama was in early to mid July).  We won't know until tomorrow at the earliest (probably not until Wednesday or Thursday).  Obama may decide it's time to roll out the VP candidate.

[Vsanto5]

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What controversy?  I want to know what you are talking about because I really don't know how you came up with that retort.

[Keystone Phil]

What controversy?  I want to know what you are talking about because I really don't know how you came up with that retort.

Whether it's Rev. Wright, Obama's own comments concerning "race" in this race, his inexperience, the fact that he's "too different" for many people, etc.

Reagan didn't have those problems. People threw around that he was an actor and that he was considered far right wing.

[Saxwsylvania]

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What controversy?  I want to know what you are talking about because I really don't know how you came up with that retort.https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=77087.315;num_replies=327#top
Insert Quote

Hey, I hate to make you feel that me and Phil are ganging up on you, but - are you really a fan of Garfield?

[Vsanto5]

I don't feel ganged up on.  But yes I' am.  The earliest garfields are the best, the fattest garfield, and the slimmer garfield.  Besides my giant sig, why do you ask?

 I think what goes on in people's lives are what is going to drive them to the polls, and which candidate they feel will address their concerns the best.  Not a controversy ,which Reagan never had to deal with.

 I still think that Obama needs Hillary to pull in all the Democrats and then you will see the bounce that should be attributed to left leaning results in the summertime.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Can Conservatives please explain why an all American war hero is losing in the polls to a man with a middle name Hussein?

Believe me, Alcon is NOT a conservative!

[CARLHAYDEN]

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What controversy?  I want to know what you are talking about because I really don't know how you came up with that retort.

I enjoyed Garfield, as I had a cat (or more accurately, I was his valet in his opinion) who knew what time it was for me to come home from work, and that I preferred entering through the kitchen, and would get on top of the refrigerator, and pounce on me when I entered.

Oh, and he was an all black cat that I got as a kitten, who named himself (Zorro) by leaving his mark.

I still miss him.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Obama - 45% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

The results reflect a fairly steady pattern of voter sentiment over the last several days, with the two candidates either tied in an absolute sense, or in today's average, statistically tied. As has been the case all summer, the race appears to be settling back into a pattern where Obama has a small margin over McCain. The overall average margin for June and July has been three percentage points in Obama's favor, despite some brief periods of time when Obama led statistically and other times when the race was tied. Obama has been unable to sustain a significant lead over McCain, and the latter has been unable to break into even a small lead over Obama.

[J. J.]

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

[Alcon]

Monday, August 4, 2008

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 43% (-1)

The three percentage point advantage for Obama matches the average since early June, when Obama clinched the number of delegates needed to head to the Democratic convention as the presumptive presidential nominee. Since then, Obama has never trailed McCain among registered voters, though McCain has tied Obama five times during this span, including Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports for last Friday and Saturday.

The Democratic convention is now just three weeks away, while the Republican convention will begin four weeks from today. The conventions are one of the most anticipated events of the election calendar, in part because each candidate typically receives a "bounce" in support in the polls following their official nomination as the party's presidential candidate.

[Wiz in Wis]

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Midweek = Wednesday Right?

[J. J.]

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Midweek = Wednesday Right?

Thursday is better.  This includes two weekend numbers.  Obama might drop with just Sunday numbers included, but Thursday is likely for the lead.

[Vsanto5]

Why are Gallup and Rassmussen opposites?  It seems when Rasmussen has Obama ahead Gallup has him tied or really close.  When Gallup goes +3 Rasmussen is -1.

[Lief 🗽]

Ah. Here's the Obama weekend bounce J.J. talks so much about.

[J. J.]

Ah. Here's the Obama weekend bounce J.J. talks so much about.

Yes, that average was based on polling from Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Tomorrow, Friday's numbers will drop off and Mondays will pop in.  If Obama is eroding, we see this drop back a bit, but we won't see anything without the weekend until Thursday.

The VP announcement may change that dynamic.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Voter preferences fluctuated in the time immediately after Obama's much publicized overseas trip. First, Obama's lead stretched to nine points near the conclusion of the trip, only to disappear when McCain moved into a precise tie with Obama near the end of last week. Now, the race seems to have reverted to where it has been for most of the summer, with Obama holding a narrow advantage.

If indeed the race has settled back to "the norm" for the time being, it could represent the calm before the storm. With vice presidential running mate announcements and the party conventions forthcoming in the next several weeks, enough voter preferences could be changed by these events to cause renewed movement in the overall numbers. [/quote]

[Wiz in Wis]

Ah. Here's the Obama weekend bounce J.J. talks so much about.

Yes, that average was based on polling from Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Tomorrow, Friday's numbers will drop off and Mondays will pop in.  If Obama is eroding, we see this drop back a bit, but we won't see anything without the weekend until Thursday.

The VP announcement may change that dynamic.

So far, no indication of weakening, but Monday might just have been less damaging than Friday... Right?

[J. J.]

Ah. Here's the Obama weekend bounce J.J. talks so much about.

Yes, that average was based on polling from Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Tomorrow, Friday's numbers will drop off and Mondays will pop in.  If Obama is eroding, we see this drop back a bit, but we won't see anything without the weekend until Thursday.

The VP announcement may change that dynamic.

So far, no indication of weakening, but Monday might just have been less damaging than Friday... Right?

Possibly, though there might have been a good Obama sample in Sunday's  (or even Saturday's poll).  Saturday's numbers will drop out tomorrow and Sunday's numbers will drop out on Thursday.

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - August 6, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

[J. J.]

Wednesday - August 6, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Weekend numbers dropping out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And yet:

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Not happening.

[J. J.]

And yet:

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Not happening.

We don't have the mid week numbers yet.  Sunday is still in the sample.

My only real question is if Obama gets a weekend bump or if McCain gets a mid-week bump.

[Brittain33]

My only real question is if Obama gets a weekend bump or if McCain gets a mid-week bump.

Or if Obama suffers a mid-week sag, or if McCain suffers a weekend sag.

What is truth in this situation?

[J. J.]

My only real question is if Obama gets a weekend bump or if McCain gets a mid-week bump.

Or if Obama suffers a mid-week sag, or if McCain suffers a weekend sag.

What is truth in this situation?

Bingo.  I fully expect McCain to pop up ahead on Thursday or Friday, but I don't expect him to be on Monday.

I think the "truth in this situation," is Obama eroded, maybe 3-4 points and the candidate's numbers will seem to be slow dancing around the others.  The "minuet period" of the campaign?

[Democratic Hawk]

Independents Remain Split Between Obama and McCain [6 August, 2008]

Overall, the race expanded, slightly, than contracted in recent weeks

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109309/Independents-Remain-Split-Between-Obama-McCain.aspx

Presidential preferences for July 28 - Aug. 3, 2008

Core Consituency Groups for Obama

Blacks: Obama 86%; McCain 5%
Democrats: Obama 79%; McCain 12%
Liberals: Obama 78%; McCain 14%
No religious affiliation: Obama 67%; McCain 24%
Hispanics: Obama 57%; McCain 30%
18-to-29-year-olds: Obama 56%; McCain 35%
Moderates: Obama 51%; McCain 35%
Postgraduates: Obama 55%; McCain 39%
Women: Obama 48%; McCain 39%

Core Constituency Groups for McCain

Republicans: McCain 84%; Obama 10%
Conservatives: McCain 68%; Obama 22%
Whites: McCain 51%; Obama 38%
65 years-and-older: McCain 46%; Obama 37%
Men: McCain 48%; Obama 41%
Protestants: McCain 48%; Obama 41%

Competitive Constituency Groups [change on previous week]

Independents: McCain 43% (+4); Obama 40% (-4)
Catholics: McCain 46% (+6); Obama 42% (-7)
30-to-49-year-olds: McCain 46% (+1); Obama 44% (-1)
50-to-64-year-olds: Obama 46% (-2); McCain 43% (+1)
"Some college": Obama 45% (-2); McCain 45% (+3)
College graduates: Obama 45% (nc); McCain 45% (-2)
No College: McCain 44% (+5); Obama 41% (-5)

Dave