Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 24, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Obama's much anticipated overseas trip enters its sixth day, but so far it has not meaningfully affected the choice for president voters would make if the election were held today. Obama has held a modest advantage over McCain for all but a few days (in which the candidates were precisely tied) since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

Today, Obama will give what is considered to be the major speech of his trip in Berlin, Germany. McCain was planning to give a major speech of his own today from an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, but that had to be canceled due to the after-effects of Hurricane Dolly.

[Wiz in Wis]

Why are the tracking polls showing a closer race than the one-time polls that have Obama up by 6-7%? Which one's should we trust?

Neither... its July

[Sam Spade]

Why are the tracking polls showing a closer race than the one-time polls that have Obama up by 6-7%? Which one's should we trust?

Truthfully, the tracking polls, simply because they are going to be less subject to bad samples (and the bad samples will exit the actual result over time).

But at this point in the campaign, it's fair enough to believe whatever you want. 

[J. J.]

Probably close to +2 Obama, same as last week.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Gains Over McCain in Swing States Since June [23 July, 2008]

Gap has moved at least 3 points in his favor in all state groups since June

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109036/Obama-Gains-Over-McCain-Swing-States-Since-June.aspx

Barack Obama - John McCain Vote Preference in Red, Blue and Purple States

Based on Gallup Poll Daily Tracking March - May

Blue (Democratic) states: Obama 53% (52%); McCain 37% (39%)

Purple (competitive) states: Obama 48% (46%); McCain 40% (44%)

Red (Republican) states: Obama 40% (39%); McCain 50% (52%)

And he's winning Britons, French and Germans by a landslide

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109018/Britons-French-Germans-Solidly-Back-Obama.aspx

Dave

[CARLHAYDEN]

Why are the tracking polls showing a closer race than the one-time polls that have Obama up by 6-7%? Which one's should we trust?

Truthfully, the tracking polls, simply because they are going to be less subject to bad samples (and the bad samples will exit the actual result over time).

But at this point in the campaign, it's fair enough to believe whatever you want. 

I'd agree with your first statement, but, regarding the second statement, if someone "believes" McCain is going to carry the District of Columbia, or Obama will carry Utah, they really need a reality check.

[Lunar]

Carl, I have an honest question: Are national polls necessarily more immune from bad samples?  Or do little pockets of weakness (cell-only, non-response, multiple landlines etc.) expose themselves more in a national poll?

[Gustaf]

Carl, I have an honest question: Are national polls necessarily more immune from bad samples?  Or do little pockets of weakness (cell-only, non-response, multiple landlines etc.) expose themselves more in a national poll?

Do you mean national as opposed to tracking or national as opposed to state?

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, July 25, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+2)
McCain - 41% (-2)

Obama's current lead matches his lead in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking rolling average for July 18-20, Friday through Sunday of last week. A six percentage point lead for Obama, also measured at several other points in July and June, is the highest he has enjoyed since he had a 7-point advantage over McCain in early June (which, in turn, was Obama's largest lead of the campaign).

The key question at this particular point in the campaign concerns the impact, if any, of this unusual week during which Obama conducted his highly-publicized world tour while McCain attempted to grab back part of the media spotlight by conducting domestic events and taking the opportunity to make critical comments about his presumed Democratic opponent.

European residents certainly evince a strong sentiment in favor of Obama winning the U.S. presidency -- much higher than the pro-Obama sentiment here at home. Gallup polling shows that residents of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom by very large margins would rather see Obama win instead of McCain. Residents of the U.S. have been favoring Obama by just about three points. The key is the degree to which the sentiments of European residents might "rub off" on U.S. voters as they have the opportunity to absorb news coverage of Obama's trip.

In a broad sense, there are several ways that Obama's European trip could affect U.S. voters:

1. Obama's trip could end up being the basis for a shift in voter preferences to the point where he pulls into a sustained lead over McCain. This could occur on a delayed basis. It's even possible that Obama's trip, while not having an immediate effect on tracking numbers, could lay the mental groundwork in the minds of voters to the point where they are more open to an Obama presidency at some point in the future (such as the Democratic convention). In particular, this might occur if his trip removes doubts voters might have about his ability to handle international affairs.

2. Voters could simply not pay much attention to the trip, and its net impact could end up being very minor. The data so far this summer have shown little significant movement in voter numbers, suggesting that voters may, to some degree, be tuning out the election coverage regardless of the candidates' efforts to stimulate interest.

3. Voters could pay attention to Obama's trip, but decide that the trip, per se, did not demonstrate anything that would cause a fundamental shift in their voting preferences. While the news media have made a great deal out of the trip, it's conceivable that it may not appear to be significant to the majority of voters.

4. Voters could pay attention to the trip, but shift support away from Obama if they viewed the trip or the way in which Obama conducted himself in a more negative light. Conservative commentators -- and of course the McCain campaign itself -- have certainly been arguing that there are negatives associated with the trip, including a speculation of presumptiveness that a presidential nominee would make a speech more appropriate for an actual president, the criticism that the content of his speeches did not contain anything new, or that the real issues facing the voters are domestic, not international.

The evidence is certainly mixed at this point as to which of these scenarios may end up being closest to reality. Obama's 6-point lead over the past weekend initially suggested that he was perhaps on the cusp of a jump in support as a result of (or at the least coincident with) his trip. But that lead was not sustained, and the Gallup averages reported in the middle of this week have been in and around the average 3-point advantage Obama has maintained for the last month and a half.

Now, on the basis of a strong showing in Thursday night's Gallup interviewing, Obama is back to a 6-point margin over McCain. On Thursday Obama made his highly-anticipated speech to a crowd estimated to be larger than 200,000 in Berlin, Germany, and it is not implausible that it might have affected enough voters to move his overall advantage in the horse race tracking a few points. The drop off in Obama's support earlier this week, however, suggests caution in assuming that the trip will have any lasting impact on the structure of the race.

This means that the jury is still out until the tracking results through the weekend and into next week are monitored carefully. To signify a real difference in the support patterns of voters in the U.S., the data would either need to show a sustained 6-point plus lead for Obama over a number of days, or conversely, a sustained pattern by which John McCain moves into the lead (something he has not done since early June) and sustains that lead.

Previous election year polling shows that the conventions have a high (but not 100%) probability of shaking up the race. The impact of events prior to the conventions is certainly more difficult to pin down. As noted, the structure of the race this year appears to have snapped into place in early June after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic Party's nomination, and it simply has not changed much since. Whether or not it will change at this juncture remains to be seen.

[Wiz in Wis]

5+ point leads in both tracking polls...

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 26, 2008:

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 41% (nc)

This represents a continuation of Obama's frontrunner position in Gallup's Friday report, when he led McCain by six points, 47% to 41%. Earlier this week, Obama and McCain were separated by just two to four points, but that was before the extensive U.S. news coverage of the last leg of Obama's foreign tour.

Obama's particularly large leads over McCain in Friday and Saturday's tracking suggest that the massive publicity surrounding Obama's speech at the Victory Tower in Berlin on Friday -- the only major public event of the trip -- and coverage of Obama's meetings with the heads of state in France and Britain may have tilted U.S. voter preferences more in his favor.

Notably, Obama's current seven-point lead over McCain ties his widest since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election in early March, and was achieved only once previously. He led McCain by seven points immediately after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign for the Democratic nomination in early June. However, that proved to be a short-lived bounce, with Obama holding a six- to seven-point lead for only three days before it dropped back to two to three points.

While Obama may have thus far received a modest bounce from the massive publicity surrounding this week's trip, his ability to sustain or build on that -- as opposed to having it dissipate along with news coverage of the trip --could hinge on how the major U.S. media outlets and conservative vs. liberal commentators portray his performance abroad in the coming days.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Carl, I have an honest question: Are national polls necessarily more immune from bad samples?  Or do little pockets of weakness (cell-only, non-response, multiple landlines etc.) expose themselves more in a national poll?

Not necessarily.

Also, unrepresentative samples aren't the only, nor the most serious problem.

The thing is that some state polls are really terrible, especially those done by some media outlets.

What I believe you are getting at is that larger sample sizes in most national polls tend to dilute the tendency to badly skewed samples.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - July 27, 2008:

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 40% (-1)

This represents a continuation of Obama's front-runner position evident in the last three Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates.

The margin, coincident with the extensive U.S. news coverage of Obama's foreign tour, is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election horserace in March.

A key question remains as to whether this "bounce" is short-term (as happens to bounces in some instances following intense publicity surrounding a convention) or if his lead will persist -- the answer to which will become evident in the next several days.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - July 27, 2008:

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 40% (-1)

I´d rather have a continuous 5-6% advantage for Obama until Nov. 4 to avoid voters staying at home because they think Obama is a lock. A 5-6% advantage prior to Election Day is also the margin with which Obama could offset a minor Bradley-Effect and still win the election.

[The Mikado]

It'll be back down to ~5 by Wednesday.

Quote this post on Wednesday to mock me/admire my prescience.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Obama is really running away with this race!

Feel like a clown now?

[Alcon]

Obama is really running away with this race!

Feel like a clown now?

Feigned conditional outrage!  Feigned conditional outrage!

[Rowan]

Weekend polling from Gallup.

*Sigh*

[Flying Dog]

Let's go for double digits!!!!

[Keystone Phil]

Obama is really running away with this race!

Feel like a clown now?

Oh, absolutely. I just wish Election day wasn't next week!

Does anyone know how former President Dukakis is these days?

[Wiz in Wis]

Obama is really running away with this race!

Feel like a clown now?

Oh, absolutely. I just wish Election day wasn't next week!

Does anyone know how former President Dukakis is these days?

He's hanging at the Pool with Former President Dole.

[Flying Dog]

Obama is really running away with this race!

Feel like a clown now?

Oh, absolutely. I just wish Election day wasn't next week!

Does anyone know how former President Dukakis is these days?

He's hanging at the Pool with Former President Dole.

I shudder to think about what that man looks like in a bathing suit. Ick.

Have you seen him lately, he has had enough 'adjustments' done to make Cher blush.

[Democratic Hawk]

Let's go for double digits!!!!

Well, if it's gonna happen it will happen tomorrow (given that weekend data, apparently, overstates Obama's lead).

Dave

[Flying Dog]

Let's go for double digits!!!!

Well, if it's gonna happen it will happen tomorrow (given that weekend data, apparently, overstates Obama's lead).

Dave

Think about it this way: Perhaps mid-week date overstates McCain's lead. How 'bout that?

[© tweed]

Let's go for double digits!!!!

Well, if it's gonna happen it will happen tomorrow (given that weekend data, apparently, overstates Obama's lead).

Dave

Think about it this way: Perhaps mid-week date overstates McCain's lead. How 'bout that?

the election is on a Tuesday