Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Aizen]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

oh thats a relief. glad to see everything is a-okay in mccain land. nothing bad ever happens there.

[J. J.]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

I doubt more than 1% of the country's population (3 million) evacuated their homes, and certainly no more than 2%.

You also have phone lines down, people away from their phones getting supplies, people not responding because they are watch hurricane coverage.  Part of that is why M-D won't poll FL after a hurricane.  If we should get one in the NE, you might see an Obama drop (and we might).

[Iosif]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

I doubt more than 1% of the country's population (3 million) evacuated their homes, and certainly no more than 2%.

You also have phone lines down, people away from their phones getting supplies, people not responding because they are watch hurricane coverage.  Part of that is why M-D won't poll FL after a hurricane.  If we should get one in the NE, you might see an Obama drop (and we might).

I think you're clutching at straws.

[Sam Spade]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

I doubt more than 1% of the country's population (3 million) evacuated their homes, and certainly no more than 2%.

You also have phone lines down, people away from their phones getting supplies, people not responding because they are watch hurricane coverage.  Part of that is why M-D won't poll FL after a hurricane.  If we should get one in the NE, you might see an Obama drop (and we might).

I think you're clutching at straws.

I agree.  The reasonable analysis is mine, regardless of which side you take, imho. (not to brag too much  )

[J. J.]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

oh thats a relief. glad to see everything is a-okay in mccain land. nothing bad ever happens there.

No, but follows my corolary to JJ's First Rule, never trust one poll.  

One thing that it probably isn't is a weekend bounce for Obama, since that doesn't Occur on Rasmussen.  Do to the timing, it probably isn't a Bristol bounce.

BTW:  I said the same thing after the Biden slump; it took me about 2-4 days of bad polling before I said there was a problem.

[Sam Spade]

Palin poll numbers done yesterday.  About what I expected to see - still favorable views of her (52-36), but partisanship growing.  Women less favorable, men about the same, if not more (go figure) - proves my theory again!

Henceforth, the conclusion can clearly be made that the speech is very important.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/52_still_have_favorable_view_of_palin_but_partisan_gap_widens

[Dan the Roman]

Note that her ready to be President numbers have dropped substantially from Friday. Now its 48%-29% no, a 19 point deficit compared to a 2% one on Friday. That is the number that is going to drive the McCain-Obama numbers, not Palin's favorables. People seem to view her as a nice lady who is maybe a bit too busy to be Vice President.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Note that her ready to be President numbers have dropped substantially from Friday. Now its 48%-29% no, a 19 point deficit compared to a 2% one on Friday. That is the number that is going to drive the McCain-Obama numbers, not Palin's favorables. People seem to view her as a nice lady who is maybe a bit too busy to be Vice President.

Be careful.  It does not necessarily follow that because someone is unready to be president that they are also unready to be vice president.  It would be hard for her favorables to be as high as they are if people didn't want her serving in any capacity.

Count me as one of the 48 percent who doesn't want her as president but thinks she'd do a fine job at being number two.

[Dan the Roman]

Note that her ready to be President numbers have dropped substantially from Friday. Now its 48%-29% no, a 19 point deficit compared to a 2% one on Friday. That is the number that is going to drive the McCain-Obama numbers, not Palin's favorables. People seem to view her as a nice lady who is maybe a bit too busy to be Vice President.

Be careful.  It does not necessarily follow that because someone is unready to be president that they are also unready to be vice president.  It would be hard for her favorables to be as high as they are if people didn't want her serving in any capacity.

Count me as one of the 48 percent who doesn't want her as president but thinks she'd do a fine job at being number two.

The capcity they may want her serving in is as Governor of Alaska. My parents who were McCain leaning until Friday became solid Obama because the reason they were considering McCain is because they felt Obama was inexperienced. They felt it showed impulsive judgement on his part to pick someone as VP who couldn't serve as President.

The New Republic made an interesting point yesterday. Experience is actually more important for a VP than for a Presidential Candidate. Why? Because its possible to take a risk on a President because they are likely to have at least a degree of time to get the hang of the job and may have other redeeming qualities. A VP does not have this oppurtunity because when a VP becomes President the country is by definition in crisis. The President had died or resigned in disgrace. The nation can afford a well-educated if less experienced President for the first six months of next year if he has other redeeming qualities over his opponent(as Obama may well have in the view of the electorate). If Palin takes office though, it will be because McCain was either shot or died. Is Palin prepared to take over in the middle of crisis if McCain drops dead or is killed. Is Biden? That is the question. And if not, she fails at the most basic requirement of being Vice President no matter how nice she is.

[Dan the Roman]

Note that her ready to be President numbers have dropped substantially from Friday. Now its 48%-29% no, a 19 point deficit compared to a 2% one on Friday. That is the number that is going to drive the McCain-Obama numbers, not Palin's favorables. People seem to view her as a nice lady who is maybe a bit too busy to be Vice President.

Be careful.  It does not necessarily follow that because someone is unready to be president that they are also unready to be vice president.  It would be hard for her favorables to be as high as they are if people didn't want her serving in any capacity.

Count me as one of the 48 percent who doesn't want her as president but thinks she'd do a fine job at being number two.

The capacity they may want her serving in is as Governor of Alaska. My parents who were McCain leaning until Friday became solid Obama because the reason they were considering McCain is because they felt Obama was inexperienced. They felt it showed impulsive judgment on his part to pick someone as VP who couldn't serve as President. this may well be the equivalent of approve disprove numbers on Bush. Bush's favorables always stayed about ten points above his approval rating for most of his term. I think most people who were already going to vote against McCain are included in the unfavorable numbers. Anyone who otherwise was going to vote McCain but changed is probably in the "Ready to be President" numbers, even if a few are still planning to.

The New Republic made an interesting point yesterday. Experience is actually more important for a VP than for a Presidential Candidate. Why? Because its possible to take a risk on a President because they are likely to have at least a degree of time to get the hang of the job and may have other redeeming qualities. A VP does not have this oppurtunity because when a VP becomes President the country is by definition in crisis. The President had died or resigned in disgrace. The nation can afford a well-educated if less experienced President for the first six months of next year if he has other redeeming qualities over his opponent(as Obama may well have in the view of the electorate). If Palin takes office though, it will be because McCain was either shot or died. Is Palin prepared to take over in the middle of crisis if McCain drops dead or is killed. Is Biden? That is the question. And if not, she fails at the most basic requirement of being Vice President no matter how nice she is.

[Sam Spade]

Note that her ready to be President numbers have dropped substantially from Friday. Now its 48%-29% no, a 19 point deficit compared to a 2% one on Friday. That is the number that is going to drive the McCain-Obama numbers, not Palin's favorables. People seem to view her as a nice lady who is maybe a bit too busy to be Vice President.

Oh, of course.  That's why the VP speech is crucial.

[Tender Branson]

Oh No, this is the end for Obama !

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama currently leads McCain by fourteen points among women but trails by four among men. Obama does better among those who would prefer a glass of wine than he does with beer drinkers. McCain has a huge lead among gun owners while Obama leads among households without a gun.

Favorability

Obama: 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[KeyKeeper]

Gov. Palin speech tonight will make or break Sen. McCain.

[J. J.]

Gov. Palin speech tonight will make or break Sen. McCain.

So will McCain's speech.  She could be brilliant, and he could blow it.

He broke up pair to draw to inside straight flush. 

[Eraserhead]

Damn... I'm liking Obama's favorables.

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

[Sam Spade]

It is likely the one-day bump on Monday was a blip because yesterday's sample must have been somewhere between Obama +2-4, maybe slightly less, to lead to this result.  That means Obama's lead will likely be 3 or less come Friday.  I also note that this sample was taken before last night's convention, undoubtedly.

[KeyKeeper]

People just give a little time, these numbers are going to go up and down. Once the RNC is over and the first debate is over then lets see the numbers.

[Sam Spade]

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

What did Sam Spade tell you?  Maybe you should listen to him more often. 

[Eraserhead]

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

What did Sam Spade tell you?  Maybe you should listen to him more often. 

Must have missed that one.

[© tweed]

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

What did Sam Spade tell you?  Maybe you should listen to him more often. 

he told me that Obama "never had a chance" to beat Clinton back in February

[Eraserhead]

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

What did Sam Spade tell you?  Maybe you should listen to him more often. 

he told me that Obama "never had a chance" to beat Clinton back in February

Oh snap!

[Sam Spade]

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

What did Sam Spade tell you?  Maybe you should listen to him more often. 

he told me that Obama "never had a chance" to beat Clinton back in February

I doubt I would have said that in February.  Please provide the link.  I might have said that after New Hampshire, but it was probably taunting.  In fact, that describes a decent bit of what I did that primary. 

[Sam Spade]

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

What did Sam Spade tell you?  Maybe you should listen to him more often. 

Must have missed that one.

Read carefully... 

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=81775.msg1693682#msg1693682

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

What did Sam Spade tell you?  Maybe you should listen to him more often. 

he told me that Obama "never had a chance" to beat Clinton back in February

I doubt I would have said that in February.  Please provide the link.  I might have said that after New Hampshire, but it was probably taunting.  In fact, that describes a decent bit of what I did that primary. 

Obama had no chance from the moment he entered the Dem race.  Just FYI