Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Kalimantan]

Tuesday - October 21

Obama: 50 (nc)
McCain: 46 (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Yesterday was a fairly strong day for Obama, all told.  I'll put the number up soon.

[Sam Spade]

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.19%	(49.55%	50.73%	50.25%	50.34%)
McCain	45.64%	(45.80%	44.63%	45.46%	45.89%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday		Friday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	44.22	41.09	43.41	40.65	45.40	39.49	43.70	39.60	42.85	40.23
Likely	4.82	3.21	4.88	3.61	4.40	3.46	4.93	3.81	5.31	3.60
Lean	1.15	1.35	1.17	1.54	0.93	1.68	1.62	1.99	2.18	2.06

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday		Friday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	85.49	10.83	86.42	10.56	86.44	10.46	86.34	11.23	85.94	11.56
Republican	11.71	87.21	11.34	87.15	12.38	86.68	11.47	86.34	10.91	87.47
Independent	46.58	45.23	43.93	45.52	47.22	42.15	47.47	42.88	48.33	43.99

[Reds4]

Sam,

Looks like Obama had a pretty good night.. but the independents were closer than on many other nights so probably not a huge Obama win I would think?

[Sam Spade]

Sam,

Looks like Obama had a pretty good night.. but the independents were closer than on many other nights so probably not a huge Obama win I would think?

My guess as to the dailies (through other internals) is this:

Last night: Obama +7.5%
2nd night: Obama +2%
3rd night: Obama +4%

Most of the movement last evening, however, occurred because Obama had a strong night in comparison to the previous two nights in terms of his own numbers.  McCain's numbers weren't really very different from the sample it replaced.

[cinyc]

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Hey J. J. and cinyc see to think so.

Huh?  I never said that.  In fact, I've repeatedly said that Obama had absolutely no reason to release his September fundraising until legally required to do so.
 
Please stop putting words into my mouth.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Hey J. J. and cinyc see to think so.

Huh?  I never said that.  In fact, I've repeatedly said that Obama had absolutely no reason to release his September fundraising until legally required to do so.
 
Please stop putting words into my mouth.

I'm referring to your obsession with Obama not taking public funds.

[cinyc]

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Hey J. J. and cinyc see to think so.

Huh?  I never said that.  In fact, I've repeatedly said that Obama had absolutely no reason to release his September fundraising until legally required to do so.
 
Please stop putting words into my mouth.

I'm referring to your obsession with Obama not taking public funds.

That goes to Obama's truthfulness, not his fundraising prowess.  Fact: Obama broke his promise to take public financing in the general election.

[emailking]

That goes to Obama's truthfulness, not his fundraising prowess.  Fact: Obama broke his promise to take public financing in the general election.

Actually, he never said that. He said he would pursue an agreement on doing that with the eventual Republican nominee. Such an agreement was pursued amongst lawyers for both campaigns.

[cinyc]

That goes to Obama's truthfulness, not his fundraising prowess.  Fact: Obama broke his promise to take public financing in the general election.

Actually, he never said that. He said he would pursue an agreement on doing that with the eventual Republican nominee. Such an agreement was pursued amongst lawyers for both campaigns.

Yes he did. 

"I wrote a letter to the FEC saying if my Republican opponent is willing to abide by public financing, I would abide by public financing as well . . ." - Barack Obama, Iowa, December 27, 2007.

[J. J.]

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Hey J. J. and cinyc see to think so.

Huh?  I never said that.  In fact, I've repeatedly said that Obama had absolutely no reason to release his September fundraising until legally required to do so.
 
Please stop putting words into my mouth.

I'm referring to your obsession with Obama not taking public funds.

No, but I can oviously see a downside to NOT raising enough money.

[emailking]

"I wrote a letter to the FEC saying if my Republican opponent is willing to abide by public financing, I would abide by public financing as well . . ." - Barack Obama, Iowa, December 27, 2007.

Newsbusters ehh? Well Huffington Post claims this was taken out of context and the end part of the statement is deliberatley cut off to mask that this was qualified by the necessity for no 527s or party national committee funds.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/obamas-non-promise-not-br_b_108857.html

What is omitted by the ellipses in your quote? If you can show me I will admit you are right and I am wrong.

[TheGlobalizer]

That goes to Obama's truthfulness, not his fundraising prowess.  Fact: Obama broke his promise to take public financing in the general election.

Actually, he never said that. He said he would pursue an agreement on doing that with the eventual Republican nominee. Such an agreement was pursued amongst lawyers for both campaigns.

Yes he did. 

"I wrote a letter to the FEC saying if my Republican opponent is willing to abide by public financing, I would abide by public financing as well . . ." - Barack Obama, Iowa, December 27, 2007.

Yeah, but if it were you and you were raising money like Obama is, you'd do the same thing.

I'm not sure this is a valid criticism, but even if it is, it has no legs at all.

[cinyc]

"I wrote a letter to the FEC saying if my Republican opponent is willing to abide by public financing, I would abide by public financing as well . . ." - Barack Obama, Iowa, December 27, 2007.

Newsbusters ehh? Well Huffington Post claims this was taken out of context and the end part of the statement is deliberatley cut off to mask that this was qualified by the necessity for no 527s or party national committee funds.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/obamas-non-promise-not-br_b_108857.html

What is omitted by the ellipses in your quote? If you can show me I will admit you are right and I am wrong.

ABC News, actually, via Newsbusters.  

Obama said he'd take public funding if McCain did.  So says the Obama-cheerleading New York Times and NPR, ABC News and every other news outlet I've seen.  A blogger on Huffington Post may disagree - but he's wrong and engaging in semantic nonsense.

I really don't want to get into any further debate about Barack Obama on the Rasmussen thread.  It doesn't belong here.

[emailking]

ABC News, actually, via Newsbusters.  

Obama said he'd take public funding if McCain did.  So says the Obama-cheerleading New York Times and NPR, ABC News and every other news outlet I've seen.  A blogger on Huffington Post may disagree - but he's wrong and engaging in semantic nonsense.

I really don't want to get into any further debate about Barack Obama on the Rasmussen thread.  It doesn't belong here.

Yes, my link had ABC too.

Well we don't have anything past that statement and since he later qualified it (and long before it became an issue) it stands to reason he did so there as well.

If you wish may put a response in another thread and link it. I generally respond in whatever thread the post is in to which I am responding.

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - October 22

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 45 (-1)

[J. J.]

Wednesday - October 22

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 45 (-1)

Okay, now there is the trend.  Not the one I wanted, but it's there.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday - October 22

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 45 (-1)

looks like the election ended this past weekend

[Kalimantan]

Wednesday - October 22

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 45 (-1)

Okay, now there is the trend.  Not the one I wanted, but it's there.

Its not a trend.  McCain has been 44-46 and Obama 50-52 for Ras for what, 28 straight days? Thats called stability.

[Lief 🗽]

I think what we saw last week was a dead cat bounce for McCain.

[J. J.]

Wednesday - October 22

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 45 (-1)

Okay, now there is the trend.  Not the one I wanted, but it's there.

Its not a trend.  McCain has been 44-46 and Obama 50-52 for Ras for what, 28 straight days? Thats called stability.

I'm looking for movement, not numbers.  We've seen enough movement for toward Obama (or away from McCain) across polls to say that this is the trend.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday - October 22

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 45 (-1)

Okay, now there is the trend.  Not the one I wanted, but it's there.

Its not a trend.  McCain has been 44-46 and Obama 50-52 for Ras for what, 28 straight days? Thats called stability.

no, I think over the weekend the undecideds started breaking heavily towards Obama and will continue to do so until election day, giving him a 54.5-44.5-1.0 win and 400+ EV.

[Sam Spade]

Not as much movement as there appears to be. 

The sample that went off must have been a bit worse for Obama than I thought because the internals of another question asked yesterday make it abundantly clear that Obama's number yesterday couldn't be higher than 50.20%, so long as no undecideds went for him on that question.

This internal also makes clear that McCain's one-day sample couldn't have been higher than 47%.  Given the actual movement in the poll, however, I hesitate to put McCain's sample much below 45%, not below that.  Getting to that 5% margin would also require at least half of the undecideds to break McCain's way on an economy question and none to break towards Obama (or 3/4 to 1/4, but that would lower the overall numbers)

I'm going to change my daily guesses to be:
Last night: Obama +4-5 (leaning more towards 4)
Night before: Obama +8-9 (leaning more towards 9)
Night before that: Obama +2

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.53%	(50.19%	49.55%	50.73%	50.25%)
McCain	45.47%	(45.64%	45.80%	44.63%	45.46%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	44.27	40.98	44.22	41.09	43.41	40.65	45.40	39.49	43.70	39.60
Likely	5.16	3.15	4.82	3.21	4.88	3.61	4.40	3.46	4.93	3.81
Lean	1.10	1.34	1.15	1.35	1.17	1.54	0.93	1.68	1.62	1.99

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	86.01	11.08	85.49	10.83	86.42	10.56	86.44	10.46	86.34	11.23
Republican	11.90	86.26	11.71	87.21	11.34	87.15	12.38	86.68	11.47	86.34
Independent	47.07	45.11	46.58	45.23	43.93	45.52	47.22	42.15	47.47	42.88

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wednesday - October 22

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 45 (-1)

Okay, now there is the trend.  Not the one I wanted, but it's there.

Its not a trend.  McCain has been 44-46 and Obama 50-52 for Ras for what, 28 straight days? Thats called stability.

no, I think over the weekend the undecideds started breaking heavily towards Obama and will continue to do so until election day, giving him a 54.5-44.5-1.0 win and 400+ EV.

I still find that kind of blow-out hard to fathom.

[TheresNoMoney]

10/23/08

Obama   52%
McCain    45%

Biggest Obama lead in two weeks.