Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[ChrisFromNJ]

Just more proof that Scott Rasmussen is a Republican hack.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Just more proof that Scott Rasmussen is a Republican hack.

I agree. The results are obviously tainted by Republicans too considering Rasmussen is one of the most accurate pollsters we have. It's that right-wing media messing with the returns!

[Alcon]

Just more proof that Scott Rasmussen is a Republican hack.

Or, a more plausible explanation:  Rasmussen does a hard weight by party ID, and Gallup doesn't, so bounces which affect party ID show up much more in the latter than the former.

[J. J.]

4-6 point bounce, post convention.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 30, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men

Favorability

Obama: 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+2, -2)

[KeyKeeper]

We will have to see if McCain can increase his numbers this week. Lets hope Gustav doesn't take the RNC's spot light away.

[Reaganfan]

We will have to see if McCain can increase his numbers this week. Lets hope Gustav doesn't take the RNC's spot light away.

It should be in and weakening by Tuesday.

[KeyKeeper]

We will have to see if McCain can increase his numbers this week. Lets hope Gustav doesn't take the RNC's spot light away.

It should be in and weakening by Tuesday.

I just don't want the DNC and Democrats to say, "Republican don't care about America, they wouldn't even move the RNC back."

[Reaganfan]

We will have to see if McCain can increase his numbers this week. Lets hope Gustav doesn't take the RNC's spot light away.

It should be in and weakening by Tuesday.

I just don't want the DNC and Democrats to say, "Republican don't care about America, they wouldn't even move the RNC back."

Who cares if they do? The Democrats are the most pessimistic party in American Politics. I tried listening to some of the DNC speeches...but they would get too depressing. (I'm being serious)

[KeyKeeper]

We will have to see if McCain can increase his numbers this week. Lets hope Gustav doesn't take the RNC's spot light away.

It should be in and weakening by Tuesday.

I just don't want the DNC and Democrats to say, "Republican don't care about America, they wouldn't even move the RNC back."

Who cares if they do? The Democrats are the most pessimistic party in American Politics. I tried listening to some of the DNC speeches...but they would get too depressing. (I'm being serious)

Alot of Americans do.

[War on Want]

We will have to see if McCain can increase his numbers this week. Lets hope Gustav doesn't take the RNC's spot light away.

It should be in and weakening by Tuesday.

I just don't want the DNC and Democrats to say, "Republican don't care about America, they wouldn't even move the RNC back."

Who cares if they do? The Democrats are the most pessimistic party in American Politics. I tried listening to some of the DNC speeches...but they would get too depressing. (I'm being serious)

lol you haven't studied american politics before 2000 have you? The opposition party is always pessimistic it is called politics.

[Hash]

We will have to see if McCain can increase his numbers this week. Lets hope Gustav doesn't take the RNC's spot light away.

It should be in and weakening by Tuesday.

I just don't want the DNC and Democrats to say, "Republican don't care about America, they wouldn't even move the RNC back."

Who cares if they do? The Democrats are the most pessimistic party in American Politics. I tried listening to some of the DNC speeches...but they would get too depressing. (I'm being serious)

lol you haven't studied american politics before 2000 have you? The opposition party is always pessimistic it is called politics.

Anybody who follows politics knows that the opposition party is always pessimistic. Not just in the US, but in Canada, France, and so forth. [rant]In the latter's case, the Socialist platform since 2002 is "OMG UMP SUX SOOOO BAD VOTE 4 US".[/rant]

Sometimes the pessimistic strategy works, sometimes it doesn't.

[Person Man]

So, he was tied in Gallup and one ahead in Rassy. He is now +8 and +4. That's an average of 5.5. I guess that's better than Kerry's. McCain will have to have a 6 point bump to stay in this.

[Verily]

So, he was tied in Gallup and one ahead in Rassy. He is now +8 and +4. That's an average of 5.5. I guess that's better than Kerry's. McCain will have to have a 6 point bump to stay in this.

Would have been greater if not for Palin, maybe +10 and +6. Of course, that's just speculation, but the final day sample is definitely "polluted".

[J. J.]

So, he was tied in Gallup and one ahead in Rassy. He is now +8 and +4. That's an average of 5.5. I guess that's better than Kerry's. McCain will have to have a 6 point bump to stay in this.

Would have been greater if not for Palin, maybe +10 and +6. Of course, that's just speculation, but the final day sample is definitely "polluted".

We need to wait until Monday or Tuesday.

[Verily]

So, he was tied in Gallup and one ahead in Rassy. He is now +8 and +4. That's an average of 5.5. I guess that's better than Kerry's. McCain will have to have a 6 point bump to stay in this.

Would have been greater if not for Palin, maybe +10 and +6. Of course, that's just speculation, but the final day sample is definitely "polluted".

We need to wait until Monday or Tuesday.

Umm, no, we don't. We already know what happened.

[J. J.]

So, he was tied in Gallup and one ahead in Rassy. He is now +8 and +4. That's an average of 5.5. I guess that's better than Kerry's. McCain will have to have a 6 point bump to stay in this.

Would have been greater if not for Palin, maybe +10 and +6. Of course, that's just speculation, but the final day sample is definitely "polluted".

We need to wait until Monday or Tuesday.

Umm, no, we don't. We already know what happened.

Ah, yes we do.  We have one positive thing for Obama (at least it should be), the Convention.  It will take two or three more days for that to completely register in the polls.

We know that McCain might have something that is positive, Palin.  Maybe, maybe not.  We know that the full impact won't really start until today's numbers and we won't have a strong idea until the post Palin numbers get in on Tuesday.  We can't really tell until Wednesday, at best.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - August 31, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 44% / 46%, including leaners (+1, +1)

There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate. There has been little change in perceptions of Obama since his Thursday night speech and the Palin announcement.

Favorability

Obama: 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+1, nc)

[Sam Spade]

It won't be until tomorrow that we have an entirely unpolluted sample that measures the effects of the Obama speech and the Palin announcement, but if this trend continues I must say that the whole VP announcement process was handled by McCain's people as best as it could be, at least according to Rasmussen. 

[J. J.]

It won't be until tomorrow that we have an entirely unpolluted sample that measures the effects of the Obama speech and the Palin announcement, but if this trend continues I must say that the whole VP announcement process was handled by McCain's people as best as it could be, at least according to Rasmussen. 

The portents are looking good, but it is too early to tell.  I'd actually say Tuesday.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Monday - September 01, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 44% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama receives favorable reviews from 85% of Democrats while McCain is now viewed favorably by 90% of Republicans. Both men are viewed favorably by 60% of unaffiliated voters. Enthusiasm among Republicans for McCain is up significantly since the announcement of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Fifty-one percent (51%) of GOP voters now have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain, the first time he has ever topped the 50% level in that measure. On Friday morning, just 43% were that enthusiastic about McCain.

Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after Barack Obama’s acceptance speech and the selection of Palin to be McCain’s running mate.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable (+1)
McCain: 57% favorable (+1)

[ChrisFromNJ]

Where is the Palin bump that we were told we would see?

[KeyKeeper]

Where is the Palin bump that we were told we would see?

Do you believe will win see anything in the polls right now on Labor Day and Labor Day weekend? We will not see any bump in the polls until midweek.

[CPT MikeyMike]

A Palin bump is there in the sense that it is a stall in the poll - mainly with Obama's numbers. If you expected a 5-8% Obama post-convention bounce well, you got that but take about a 3-4% bump for Palin so we are pretty much back to where this all started.

[ChrisFromNJ]

A Palin bump is there in the sense that it is a stall in the poll - mainly with Obama's numbers. If you expected a 5-8% Obama post-convention bounce well, you got that but take about a 3-4% bump for Palin so we are pretty much back to where this all started.

Or Obama got a standard 3-5% convention bounce and there was no Sarah Palin bounce.