Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[minionofmidas]

All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.

In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.

[minionofmidas]

All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.

In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.

No. The workers don't count the ballots, they just look for incorrectly filled out ballots. It's a quick scan of the ballot from top to bottom, takes a few seconds at most.

Counting the ballots by hand would take unbelievably longer.

Oh right, the old problem of having too many different races on the same bit of paper, meaning loads and loads of sorting work.

[minionofmidas]

Spent the last couple of hours salivating in front of this thread...

Where's the Grays Harbor map though?

Oh, and could you tell me how the Spokane Reservation votes?

[minionofmidas]

There's a lot more land that's on the rez, but that's really the only Indian precinct.  They (shock of shocks) don't vote much.

Shock!

[minionofmidas]

What's with this Wilkeson place?

[minionofmidas]

Still no Grays Harbor map.

Oh come on. Do it for Kurt Cobain.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks!

[minionofmidas]

Re GH... the thing in the nw is a rez of course (what's it called again, Quinault?) but shouldn't there be a rez in the se corner as well (Chehalis)?

[minionofmidas]

Wait... which one was Bush by 16?

[minionofmidas]

Since no news is actually happening, random tinkering with returns from Washington state military bases.

In total, 4,230 ballots were cast in military base precincts, up from 4,204 in 2004.

Army
2004: 1,549 ballots; 59-40 Bush
2008: 1,802 ballots; 50-48 Obama
16% turnout increase, Obama swing 21.8%

Air Force
2004: 1,239 ballots; 75-23 Bush
2008: 1,057 ballots; 63-35 McCain
15% turnout decrease, Obama swing 24.0%

Navy
2004: 1,416 ballots; 74-25 Bush
2008: 1,371 ballots; 55-44 McCain
3% turnout decrease, Obama swing 38.1%

So, while McCain bled horribly among all sorts of military voters vs. Bush, his worst losses appear easily to be among Navy voters -- the very branch of service in which he and John Kerry served.  Hah.

Individual base information (2004 results in parentheses, turnout in brackets, Dem swing in red):

Fort Lewis AB (Tacoma): 50-48 Obama (40-59) [+16%] +21.8%

Fairchild AFB (Spokane): 65-34 McCain (21-77) [-10%] +26.0%
McChord AFB (Tacoma): 61-37 McCain (27-72) [-20%] +21.6%

Jackson Park NR (Bremerton): 53-43 Obama (36-63) [-4%] +37.6%
Trident NB (Silverdale): 58-41 McCain (23-76) [-5%] +34.4%
Whidbey NAB (Oak Harbor): 56-42 McCain (22-78) [-2%] +43.0%

OK, now someone think of news that is actually news

For comparison: Alaska bases.

First the big bases:
Fort Wainwright (army, just outside of Fairbanks)
2004 1244 votes cast, 817 R, 411 D
2008 522 votes cast, 338 R, 176 D
Swing (just for lolz given the change in turnout/postal ballot utilitation) 1.6 to D

Fort Richardson (army, just outside of, and technically within, Anchorage)
2004 821 votes cast, 517 R, 295 D
2008 411 votes cast, 281 R, 123 D
Swing 9.0 to R (lol)

Eielson (Air Force, a little further outside of Fairbanks)
2004 1262 votes cast, 1058 R, 190 D
2008 641 votes cast, 497 R, 137 D
Swing 12.6 to D

Elmendorf (right next door to Fort Richardson)
2004 1106 votes cast, 897 R, 201 D
2008 1340 votes cast (what happened?), 990 R, 329 D
Swing 13.6 to D

now the tiny ones
Fort Greely (specialist army installation for arctic conditions training - it's at one of the coldest locations in the entire US. Semi-sorta-closed down. A little further out of Fairbanks than Eielson. Seems to be included in Delta Junction precinct, for which results below. Note that bulk of precinct population is not on-base.)
2004 348 votes cast, 278 R, 54 D
2008 348 votes cast, 286 R, 54 D
Swing 2.3 to R

Clear (Air Force. Missile launch site, really. Also near Fairbanks but towards the southwest rather than southeast. Precinct also called Clear, but includes territory outside of base. Not sure how many residents outside the base it includes, or even whether there are any - I think there are some, though.)
2004 89 votes cast, 59 R, 25 D
2008 81 votes cast, 59 R, 17 D
Swing 13.7 to R

Eareckson (Air Force. Not a separate base anymore, but an outlying bit of Eielson, and the last remaining military installation in the Aleutians. A radar station, really, with 27 residents as of Census 2000. Identical to Shemya Island. Included in Aleutians #1 precinct, whose polling booth is on Atka Island 12 degrees of latitude to the east. Obviously then, anybody interested in voting actually votes by mail.)
2004 32 votes cast, 16 R, 14 D
2008 44 votes cast, 22 D, 21 R
Swing 8.5 to D.

[minionofmidas]

p.s. i blame my productivity on the meth they put in mike's deluxe



and no date

That looks like very soft cheap bread. And very cheap processed cheese. Not even the salad looks healthy. Quality of the sausage is harder to judge, although if it's good quality it's sliced too thin for maximum tastyness, which of course leads me to believe it's probably as crappy as the remainder.
So, it's not the meth. Just the general badness. Not that I'm complaining, though. Keep eating bad food and making great maps, Ben!

[minionofmidas]

deathdig - I-1000/Death with Dignity Cool one

What's the bright red precinct here like; it seems to stand out on a couple other maps as well?

[minionofmidas]

Sort of an enclave of not-yet-developped land. I approve of it.

But why is it its own precinct? Oh, Washington State with its tiny precincts that make a mockery of the secrecy of the vote...

[minionofmidas]

But why is it its own precinct? Oh, Washington State with its tiny precincts that make a mockery of the secrecy of the vote...

Kinda impossible to avoid.  It's wedged between SeaTac, Kent and Tukwila.

So? They could easily either have them vote in one of the neighboring precincts except for city elections, or (though that would be ugly) do a privacy consolidation with some other uninhabited scraps of land. Or just have one of the cities formally annex it.

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You mean those grey areas had votes cast and they weren't consolidated into something else but just not released?

[minionofmidas]

They could easily either have them vote in one of the neighboring precincts except for city elections

Too complicated. They print one ballot type per precinct.

While it does indeed make things a bit more complicated, it's not as if other states weren't doing the same thing... of course, in some states city elections are held on a different date.

The easiest thing to manage would probably be a privacy consolidation with a neighboring city precinct.

Incidentally, some German states have areas outside the municipal organization as well - most extensive in Bavaria. Hesse has a few. All but one are quite sizable, actually, and all but one (a different one) are entirely uninhabited. That one has two inhabitants at some inn in the middle of the forest. (The nearest inhabited area is quite near, actually, but is in Lower Saxony. The nearest inhabited area in Hesse is, like 10 km away or something.)

[minionofmidas]

2. They actually do that when they can (here), but they can't here.

Makes sense, thanx.

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Or if there's a law to follow. Germany bans undersized precincts. Although the rule doesn't seem to be entirely hard and fast - Frankfurt's smallest precinct (about 200-odd registered voters) is that way because the nearest inhabited area is a good bit away, but presumably also because it's always been that way (ie if that neighborhood were built in that size today, they'd tell people to not be so frigging lazy if they want to vote.) Berlin actually does a results presentayshe consolidation for a small precinct of about 100 people on an island.

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In a way. A low average precinct size is fun (f[/color=black]uc[/color]k privacy - well at least as we're still talking, say, 50+ or 40+ votes I agree with the sentiment). A wide variation is more annoying than fun - makes for stupid queries like mine that started this discussion.

[minionofmidas]

How about a wealth tax instead?

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, the mayor of Seattle ought to have enough clout in Olympia to ensure the city isn't allocated any snowstorms.

[minionofmidas]

I don't get the hating on McGinn in the last pages of this thread.

[minionofmidas]

I don't really dislike him that much. I think he's wrong on the viaduct

If I understand this right they want to build another freeway through the city center. There are few things I'll oppose more unthinkingly, unflinchingly, than that. So me and McGinn are on one page on that.

[minionofmidas]

Wouldn't that just split the Lefty vote and elect Mallahan? Or is Murray hotdamn popular and might just push both people to the wall?

[minionofmidas]

And students in Whitman.

[minionofmidas]

It looks like Grays Harbor probably has the lowest registration rate among non-Hispanic, non-students

No surprise there

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know next to nothing about the place

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No surprise there, either.

[minionofmidas]

Washington doesn't have an income tax. Eyeman's initiative is a repeat of his past efforts to require the Washington legislature to have a 2/3 majority to increase any taxes. Basically it constricts their ability to do anything.

58% Pro-Suicide.

[minionofmidas]

The Eyman initiative was declared unconstitutional a few months ago. Passage is kind of irrelevant.

Ah. It helps to read on.

How does that work? It's illegal but you can vote on it anyhow? Seems bizarre.