Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

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Maybe I should mention that I did turn in my ballot last week:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Erin Jones
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

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Unless penisgate disappears entirely, my gut is that McGinn will beat Murray rather easily.

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Sawant could pull this out, but it looks like Scott is done. Hopefully the Eyman initiative gets challenged in court.

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Sawant just took the lead, albeit narrowly. Scott's now only down 53-46, but the raw vote margin is only slightly smaller. Referendum 88 is now passing by .06%, or a little under 1,000 votes.

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Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

I-976 (Tim Eyman's vehicle tax limit)
Yes: 52.93%
No: 47.07%

Senate Joint Resolution 8200 (Amendment to expand emergency legislative powers)
Approve: 65.40%
Reject: 34.60%

Seattle City Council District 1
Herbold (i): 55.63%
Tavel: 44.00%

Seattle City Council District 2
Morales: 60.32%
Solomon: 39.19%

Seattle City Council District 3
Sawant (i): 51.57%
Orion: 47.95%

Seattle City Council District 4
Pedersen: 52.34%
Scott: 47.32%

Seattle City Council District 5
Juarez (i): 60.53%
Sattler: 39.10%

Seattle City Council District 6
Strauss: 55.44%
Wills: 44.05%

Seattle City Council District 7
Lewis: 52.79%
Pugel: 46.76%

If there are more outstanding ballots left than expected, Scott might have an outside chance of catching up, but it's pretty unlikely. Assuming Pedersen wins, Amazon will have gotten 2 out of their 7 preferred candidates.

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So Sawant has pulled ahead!! Thank goodness.

No "thank goodness", but - damn!

Yes, because a city councilperson winning re-election in Seattle is going to have a profound impact on life in Russia.

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So Sawant has pulled ahead!! Thank goodness.

No "thank goodness", but - damn!

Yes, because a city councilperson winning re-election in Seattle is going to have a profound impact on life in Russia.

No. Because i visceraaly hate radical socialists...

Despite right-wing talking points about Seattle being a "socialist haven", we're actually very far from it, and could use a bit more socialism here, given how much income inequality there is, and how increasingly impossible it is for even middle-class families to get by.

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Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

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Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

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Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.

You realize that you're proving my point, right? And I have mixed feelings about affirmative action.

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Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.

You realize that you're proving my point, right? And I have mixed feelings about affirmative action.

Giving nuance to the argument if we should do race or gender based affirmative action is almost as bad as giving nuance to the argument of if vaccinations are good. Just because there are two sides doesn't mean both sides are equal.

Not even close. There isn’t merely one way to implement affirmative action, and there are examples in which quotas are not used. Now, the language in the proposal was far too vague, in my opinion, but I could easily say that anyone who strongly opposes any form of affirmative action wants to stop brown people from getting jobs. If I did so, I’d rightfully be attacked for using a strawman and not making any attempt to understand where people are coming from. Not sure why it’s okay when it’s done the other way.

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While I'm 99% sure that this isn't why conservatives rejected R-88, I think that what made the difference and pushed some Democrats to reject it as well as how vague it was. It could easily have ended up in court.

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Will Eyman break 40% in November? I'm thinking not.

Inslee has been fairly competent in his handling of the virus, no? I think that probably helps him come November.

While Inslee is decently well-liked here, it’s very rare for a gubernatorial race to be as lopsided as Senate/Presidential races tend to be, and so especially with our top two primary system, I doubt Eyman would get less than 40%. Less than 45%? Definitely possible, if not probable.

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https://twitter.com/KREMCasey/status/1261435381741809665

Good riddance!

Thank god.

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The Stranger is very cringeworthy and condescending, but saying that it sways 95% of young people here is an absurd exaggeration. Pretty much no one in my social group thinks it’s a quality news source. And let’s not heap praise on the Seattle Times, either.

Anyway, my anecdotal take is that Culp is the most likely to make it to the top two. I’ve seen pretty much exclusively signs for him in the more Republican areas I’ve passed through, with maybe a sign or two for Fortunato, and nothing for Eyman. It doesn’t make much difference, since Inslee is safe, though.

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The Stranger is very cringeworthy and condescending, but saying that it sways 95% of young people here is an absurd exaggeration. Pretty much no one in my social group thinks it’s a quality news source. And let’s not heap praise on the Seattle Times, either.

Anyway, my anecdotal take is that Culp is the most likely to make it to the top two. I’ve seen pretty much exclusively signs for him in the more Republican areas I’ve passed through, with maybe a sign or two for Fortunato, and nothing for Eyman. It doesn’t make much difference, since Inslee is safe, though.

You've seen Fortunato signs? Where? I've seen Culp signs everywhere and Freed signs in more urban areas where Culp has less appeal, and a handfull of Garcia and Eyman signs, but nothing else.

I’ve seen a few around the Skykomish River area, though there were more Culp signs.

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Davidson is down 8 so far, and I don’t imagine that will get better for him as more votes come in. Confirms that he’s pretty much toast. Wyman is up 5.5%, will be interesting to see how that changes over the next few days.

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Will Heck or Liias win the Culp vote?

My guess would be Heck.

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For the Washington posters, who are you hoping to win, Liias or Heck?

I'm undecided as of now. I voted for Liias in the primary because it was pretty clear Heck would make the general and I was hoping to have a D vs. D general. Maybe risky, but hey, it paid off.

I’m actually in exactly the same boat. I’m undecided as of right now, but strategically voted for Liias in the primary to give him a slot in the top two.

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The Democrats could pull ahead in WA-08 once more ballots come in, and while primaries here are somewhat predicative of the general election, I'd be stunned if Schrier lost in an environment like this. Probably either means that this particular primary will be a bit off (it happens from time to time), or we're headed for a closer national race than we initially thought. Hard to see Herrera Beutler losing, though, even if the margin tightens a bit. I think moving WA-03 to Lean R was a bit premature anyway.

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You also have to wonder whether the recent developments in Seattle have pushed the electorate to the right.  The left has truly created an abysmal political environment for themselves here.

There's nothing but bad news here, the city has truly gone off the deep end.  We've had CHAZ, defunding, rioting and looting, and the junkie/hoarder encampments crisis, all boosted and defended by the city.  We recently passed a major tax that is explicitly designed to destroy our tax base by forcing Amazon out of the city.  And there are other major economic mismanagement issues that don't get much attention, like two critical failing bridges (W Seattle and Magnolia) that the city refuses to take seriously.  The city is completely held hostage by activists, who generate unflattering news reports every day with their hostile tactics.

I am a hardcore Democrat and I would happily vote for any Republican at the municipal level right now.  I'm certainly not the only person feeling that way.  That doesn't mean I would vote for a Republican for governor or congress, but others may not make that distinction.

Uh, no. The only people who would cite CHOP as a factor in their vote are people with a hate boner for the left, 98% of whom are partisan Republicans. The city hasn’t “abandoned” all other projects, just because it’s also focused on police reform, which is a serious issue that needs attention. Even Democrats who didn’t support CHOP aren’t about to defect to the party of Trump because muh CHOP bad. And even if some would consider voting Republican at the local level, there’s no way people who were otherwise going to vote Democratic in their congressional race would vote for a rubber stamp on Trump. And it’s not like Schrier has been singing Sawant’s praises, either, so the number of people who would have otherwise voted for Schrier switching to a Republican is minuscule at best.

Just because you’re chronically mad at the left doesn’t mean that there are thousands who feel as strongly as you do and would leave the Democratic Party this year with this president up for re-election, especially in a completely different district with a Democrat who hasn’t had any involvement with CHOP on the ballot.

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You also have to wonder whether the recent developments in Seattle have pushed the electorate to the right.  The left has truly created an abysmal political environment for themselves here.

There's nothing but bad news here, the city has truly gone off the deep end.  We've had CHAZ, defunding, rioting and looting, and the junkie/hoarder encampments crisis, all boosted and defended by the city.  We recently passed a major tax that is explicitly designed to destroy our tax base by forcing Amazon out of the city.  And there are other major economic mismanagement issues that don't get much attention, like two critical failing bridges (W Seattle and Magnolia) that the city refuses to take seriously.  The city is completely held hostage by activists, who generate unflattering news reports every day with their hostile tactics.

I am a hardcore Democrat and I would happily vote for any Republican at the municipal level right now.  I'm certainly not the only person feeling that way.  That doesn't mean I would vote for a Republican for governor or congress, but others may not make that distinction.

Uh, no. The only people who would cite CHOP as a factor in their vote are people with a hate boner for the left, 98% of whom are partisan Republicans. The city hasn’t “abandoned” all other projects, just because it’s also focused on police reform, which is a serious issue that needs attention. Even Democrats who didn’t support CHOP aren’t about to defect to the party of Trump because muh CHOP bad. And even if some would consider voting Republican at the local level, there’s no way people who were otherwise going to vote Democratic in their congressional race would vote for a rubber stamp on Trump. And it’s not like Schrier has been singing Sawant’s praises, either, so the number of people who would have otherwise voted for Schrier switching to a Republican is minuscule at best.

Just because you’re chronically mad at the left doesn’t mean that there are thousands who feel as strongly as you do and would leave the Democratic Party this year with this president up for re-election, especially in a completely different district with a Democrat who hasn’t had any involvement with CHOP on the ballot.

Let's be honest, I have a much more negative view of these protesters and the left now than I did a few months ago, and I'm sure many share the same opinion. These people are out to destroy America as we know it, and millions will be fleeing to the GOP as a result, especially after Trump is defeated in November.

You’re judging all protestors, most of whom are peaceful and want to change the country for the better. And you do know that CHOP was mostly a glorified block party, right? Is that really more offensive to than a sitting president ignoring warning signs for and continually downplaying and spreading misinformation about a pandemic that has killed 160,000 Americans and counting, among many other horrible things he’s done? If so, they’re not “fleeing” to the GOP, because they’d be voting for Trump anyway, and would find some other excuse to justify it. People who hate Trump are not going to flee to the party that created him.

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Wow, I suppose I wouldn’t know anything about politics if it weren’t for GMA explaining concepts like “swing voters” to me . The number of people who would honestly vote Republican because of CHOP is minuscule, and I don’t buy that they wouldn’t come up with a different excuse if not for CHOP. I actually know some people who aren’t as progressive as I am here, and their views are a little more nuanced than “CHOP bad, Sawant bad, progressives bad.” It’s a little more like “I understand that people are angry, but I don’t think this is an effective or productive way of expressing their anger, and I don’t think reducing funding by 50% is particularly feasible, nor will it resolve issues of racial profiling. We should train police officers in de-escalation, etc.”

As for Wyman running in 2024, she’s probably the best candidate Republicans could run (assuming she wins this year), but she wouldn’t beat Inslee (doubt she’d run against him), and I’m not sure which opponents she would beat (Ferguson wouldn’t be an easy opponent, either.)

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I could write a dissertation on the many ways in which "bOtH sIdEz" is a lazy, horrible argument, (and I've voiced my complaints about the Democratic Party quite a bit this year) but I think the pandemic serves as some of the strongest evidence and most relevant evidence against both sides being "equally bad."

Take Inslee's response to COVID-19 arriving here in Washington. We were the very first state to get COVID cases, and some of the early cases were in nursing homes, affecting some of the most vulnerable people. Inslee (and Dow Constatine as well) didn't hesitate, and were discussing how/when to close schools as soon as the first case arrived. He took very quick action in March, and while it was frustrating not to be able to live normally in the spring, the restrictions paid off, as we quickly fell far below many other states in cases and deaths. He prioritized lives, and considered livelihood when he could afford to, easing restrictions at the appropriate time. Take a look at Washington state now. We've got from 1st to 44th in cases per capita, 1st to 41st in deaths per capita, and while there have been some upticks now and then, they've died down over time, since Inslee hasn't rushed to re-open the entire state as quickly as possible. I hate giving classes online, but looking at the many outbreaks which have happened in schools and universities across the country, it's obviously the option that puts the healthy and safety of students and staff first.

Now look at his opponent, Culp. He pretty much parrots right-wing talking points, and if elected governor, he'd pretty much throw the hard work of Inslee, other Democratic officials in this state, and millions of residents in the trash. He wants to throw out the mask mandate immediately, re-open schools as quickly as possible (and we are NOT ready,) and pretty much treat the pandemic the way Trump and numerous Republican governors did; as a minor inconvenience that it's very dangerous and shouldn't make us live our lives any differently.

It's hard to stress how much worse things could be here. Had Inslee not taken COVID seriously, we could easily still be leading the country in cases per capita and deaths. We could have ended up with three to four times as many cases and close to ten times as many deaths. Realistically, the pandemic should not be a partisan issue. Prioritizing lives should be something we can all agree on, and making some sacrifices to avoid outbreaks and overly crowded hospitals should be a no-brainer. Honest Republicans could criticize Inslee on other issues, but should be able to acknowledge that he did a stellar job with his COVID response.

And yet, many Republicans have made this a partisan issue. Inslee gets called a "tyrant", measures that keep people safe are deemed "authoritarian", and many unironically care more about the economy and the DOW Jones than actual lives. The Republican reaction to this pandemic hasn't been very "pro-life", if you ask me. They decry simple measures like wearing a mask indoors in public; a minor inconvenience that has been proven to slow the spread and save lives.

This is the issue with the "bOtH sIdEz" argument. One side is clearly concerned with the health and safety of its people. You can criticize specific measures they might take, but it's hard to argue with their intentions. Another side throws caution to the wind, downplays the severity of a virus that can be deadly and has been for over 200,000 in this country, and puts the economy (most likely their pocketbook) over the lives of other people in their country. There is no equivalency to be made. The Democratic Party, while imperfect in many ways, has cared about and made an effort to protect American lives during the pandemic. The Republican Party largely hasn't.

I could talk about multiple other issues, but this is already getting to be one of my longest posts on this site, so I'll just mention that there are many other issues where this is easy to see. Take healthcare. You might not agree with the specifics of my position on healthcare. GMA certainly doesn't, but he would probably at least acknowledge that the intentions behind my healthcare views are to save lives and make it easier to get treatment. Can anyone argue in good faith that the Republican healthcare plan (when/if there actually is one) is aimed at saving lives and improving the quality of life for the majority of Americans?

Yes, I'm aware that there are some Republicans out there who are different. True. But when there's pretty much no ideological diversity among Congressional Republicans, and they side with Trump on every issue time and time again, while there is clear ideological diversity among Democrats, I have no patience for these arguments equating both sides.

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snip.

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, and as anyone ought to be aware, I've been harshly critical of the responses of many Republican Governors, such as DeSantis, Kemp, Abbott, Ducey, and Noem, to provide a few names. I've also been harshly critical of Trump's response to the pandemic. But I still think that it's a stretch to say that all Republicans are crazy, or that they are all in deep for Trump. Look at all of the Never-Trumpers and other Republicans who are opposing Trump this year. This is to say nothing of those Republican Governors such as DeWine, Holcomb, and especially-the trio of Baker, Hogan, and Scott-who have responded seriously to this pandemic and have had among the best responses of any Governor in the country to it.

As I said, yes, there are some, but the problem is drawing the equivalency between Democrats overall taking the pandemic seriously, while a handful of Republicans and a minority of Republican governors do. There isn't equivalency, and while there are exceptions to the rule, you have to look at the big picture. It's fine to praise Phil Scott, and I'll acknowledge that he's handled the pandemic well (though it's easier to slow the spread in a state like VT, which is quite sparsely populated) but you should do so knowing how unrepresentative he is of Republicans as a whole.