Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[IceSpear]

Dave Reichert considering a gubernatorial bid:

https://q13fox.com/2019/08/30/dave-reichert-considering-run-for-washington-governor-in-2020/

He likely would've lost his own Clinton +3 district last year, so it's hard to see him winning statewide. On the other hand, WA is a lot more friendly to Republicans on the gubernatorial level. On the other other hand, he'll be sharing the ballot with Trump.

I could see him reaching McKenna levels I guess, but probably not. Unless Inslee damaged himself with the botched presidential run, last time I checked his approvals were pretty decent.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Dave Reichert considering a gubernatorial bid:

https://q13fox.com/2019/08/30/dave-reichert-considering-run-for-washington-governor-in-2020/

He likely would've lost his own Clinton +3 district last year, so it's hard to see him winning statewide. On the other hand, WA is a lot more friendly to Republicans on the gubernatorial level. On the other other hand, he'll be sharing the ballot with Trump.

I could see him reaching McKenna levels I guess, but probably not. Unless Inslee damaged himself with the botched presidential run, last time I checked his approvals were pretty decent.

Republicans literally haven't won a gubernatorial election in Washington in 40 years. Reichert is DOA.

[Seattle]

Reichert has ruled out a run for gov in 2020. So... sacrificial GOP candidate Phil Fortunato gets to lose by 10+, the most since 2000.

LD-10 State Senator Barbara Bailey has announced she's retiring early, stepping down Sept 30th. The local county Rs get to choose her replacement, IDK if there's a special in 2020. This would be a competitive district (Ds gained one seat in the House here in 2018, and were close to a second).

LD-25 State Senator Hans Zeiger is retiring to run for Pierce County council. This is theoretically a target for Ds but it has been a tough nut to crack post-2012. It's got a lot of WWC and downscale suburban and exurban areas. Despite the two retiring R incumbents in 2018, both slots were won by new Rs roughly 52 - 48. This remains the last bastion of R suburban support in the Seattle area.

[IceSpear]

Dave Reichert considering a gubernatorial bid:

https://q13fox.com/2019/08/30/dave-reichert-considering-run-for-washington-governor-in-2020/

He likely would've lost his own Clinton +3 district last year, so it's hard to see him winning statewide. On the other hand, WA is a lot more friendly to Republicans on the gubernatorial level. On the other other hand, he'll be sharing the ballot with Trump.

I could see him reaching McKenna levels I guess, but probably not. Unless Inslee damaged himself with the botched presidential run, last time I checked his approvals were pretty decent.

Republicans literally haven't won a gubernatorial election in Washington in 40 years. Reichert is DOA.

I said it was more friendly, relatively. Look at Inslee's victory margins vs. Obama/Clinton/Murray/Cantwell.

[Crumpets]

So I just typed out a bunch of results only to have the site crash on me when I went to post, but here are some interesting things:

- The affirmative action initiative is very close

- Sawant is losing, but might still get very lucky with the late returns

- Eyman's vehicle tax initiative is doing well (yikes)

- A bunch of the Seattle City Council races are very close, and we likely won't know the winners for a few days

[Ronnie]

Sawant made up a lot of ground today.  She was at 45.8% yesterday and is at 48.6%, or 739 votes behind, after tonight’s dump, in which she won 59% of the votes.  As there are about 13K votes left to count, she needs about 53% of the remaining votes to win.  Dare I say, I think she’s favored, but of course, it’s too early to call.

[lfromnj]

Dave Reichert considering a gubernatorial bid:

https://q13fox.com/2019/08/30/dave-reichert-considering-run-for-washington-governor-in-2020/

He likely would've lost his own Clinton +3 district last year, so it's hard to see him winning statewide. On the other hand, WA is a lot more friendly to Republicans on the gubernatorial level. On the other other hand, he'll be sharing the ballot with Trump.

I could see him reaching McKenna levels I guess, but probably not. Unless Inslee damaged himself with the botched presidential run, last time I checked his approvals were pretty decent.

Republicans literally haven't won a gubernatorial election in Washington in 40 years. Reichert is DOA.

#ROSSIWON
#STOLENELECTION

[Xing]

Sawant could pull this out, but it looks like Scott is done. Hopefully the Eyman initiative gets challenged in court.

[rob in cal]

  I'm intrigued that the affirmative action referendum is so close. I would have thought the pro side would be ahead fairly comfortably.

[lfromnj]

 I'm intrigued that the affirmative action referendum is so close. I would have thought the pro side would be ahead fairly comfortably.

Thank god Washington is semi-sane, a lot of these polls that show affirmative action is popular is just as bullsh**t as those 70% assault weapon bans and other polls. When it comes to the polls a lot of these things don't go the way a party wants. This also works for stuff like Voter ID. An Active partisan campaign can shift anything.

It is sad though that this ballot measure will likely pass due to King county dumps(Not saying their votes shouldn't be counted)

[Xing]

Sawant just took the lead, albeit narrowly. Scott's now only down 53-46, but the raw vote margin is only slightly smaller. Referendum 88 is now passing by .06%, or a little under 1,000 votes.

[Crumpets]

Copying down some results from the SoS page:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.43%
Approve: 49.57%

I-976 (Tim Eyman's vehicle tax limit)
Yes: 53.21%
No: 46.79%

Senate Joint Resolution 8200 (Amendment to expand emergency legislative powers)
Approve: 65.36%
Reject: 34.64%

Seattle City Council District 1
Herbold (i): 55.36%
Tavel: 44.28%

Seattle City Council District 2
Morales: 59.85%
Solomon: 39.65%

Seattle City Council District 3
Sawant (i): 50.45%
Orion: 49.09%

Seattle City Council District 4
Pedersen: 53.49%
Scott: 46.20%

Seattle City Council District 5
Juarez (i): 60.08%
Sattler: 39.56%

Seattle City Council District 6
Strauss: 55.05%
Wills: 44.46%

Seattle City Council District 7
Lewis: 52.09
Pugel: 47.45%

[Crumpets]

My hot take: It says a lot about Seattle City politics that Sawant can recover this well from the primary, even if Orion somehow makes a miraculous comeback. It means there are a sizeable chunk of people who probably don't identify as socialists, but who hate Amazon enough to vote for Sawant. Something Democrats should really keep in mind across the country going into 2020.

[Xing]

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

I-976 (Tim Eyman's vehicle tax limit)
Yes: 52.93%
No: 47.07%

Senate Joint Resolution 8200 (Amendment to expand emergency legislative powers)
Approve: 65.40%
Reject: 34.60%

Seattle City Council District 1
Herbold (i): 55.63%
Tavel: 44.00%

Seattle City Council District 2
Morales: 60.32%
Solomon: 39.19%

Seattle City Council District 3
Sawant (i): 51.57%
Orion: 47.95%

Seattle City Council District 4
Pedersen: 52.34%
Scott: 47.32%

Seattle City Council District 5
Juarez (i): 60.53%
Sattler: 39.10%

Seattle City Council District 6
Strauss: 55.44%
Wills: 44.05%

Seattle City Council District 7
Lewis: 52.79%
Pugel: 46.76%

If there are more outstanding ballots left than expected, Scott might have an outside chance of catching up, but it's pretty unlikely. Assuming Pedersen wins, Amazon will have gotten 2 out of their 7 preferred candidates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Sawant has pulled ahead!! Thank goodness.

[cwt]

Is anyone else kind of surprised at Advisory Vote No. 23?

I know they don't actually matter, but as far as I can tell it's the biggest "maintained" vote any advisory vote has ever gotten, and by a pretty large margin. Pretty rare to see 36 counties agree on anything, let alone on approving a tax.

[smoltchanov]

So Sawant has pulled ahead!! Thank goodness.

No "thank goodness", but - damn!

[Xing]

So Sawant has pulled ahead!! Thank goodness.

No "thank goodness", but - damn!

Yes, because a city councilperson winning re-election in Seattle is going to have a profound impact on life in Russia.

[smoltchanov]

So Sawant has pulled ahead!! Thank goodness.

No "thank goodness", but - damn!

Yes, because a city councilperson winning re-election in Seattle is going to have a profound impact on life in Russia.

No. Because i visceraaly hate radical socialists...

[Xing]

So Sawant has pulled ahead!! Thank goodness.

No "thank goodness", but - damn!

Yes, because a city councilperson winning re-election in Seattle is going to have a profound impact on life in Russia.

No. Because i visceraaly hate radical socialists...

Despite right-wing talking points about Seattle being a "socialist haven", we're actually very far from it, and could use a bit more socialism here, given how much income inequality there is, and how increasingly impossible it is for even middle-class families to get by.

[MT Treasurer]

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

[Xing]

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

[Crumpets]

Sawant will never be defeated.

I think Amazon really shot themselves in the foot by going all-in on Orion. It's not like Sawant is a mega-popular juggernaut, but she really typifies the "well, if everyone hates her, so she must be doing something right" aesthetic. Not entirely unlike Trump in that regard.

[lfromnj]

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.