Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Calthrina950]

Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

Sawant should primary cantwell

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.

Obviously, you're a Sawant supporter, but why has she been so controversial and faced so many challenges? I know virtually nothing about her.

According to a "joint statement from the Jewish, Black, and Asian communities" (of Seattle proper), which was previously posted here by GenMac, she has:

• regularly traded in rhetoric giving rise in anti-Semitism, resulting in violence directed at Jewish residents
• sought to hijack the efforts of BLM organizers to promote her own political agenda, which has been well-documented by local news coverage
• refused to advocate for East/Southeast Asian small business owners by falsely equating poverty with crime
• approrpriated her own South Asian identity for political gain without adequately representing her AAPI constituents
• admitted to using city resources to support a ballot initiative, without complying with a public disclosure requirement related to this support
• disobeyed a state order and endangered public workers by admitting hundreds of people into City Hall on June 9th, 2020

Given all of this, why does Sawant continue to win reelection? Obviously, her constituents are satisfied with her service.

[PSOL]

Whatever, when she wins by a wider margin next time I’ll rub it in harder. When you prove that you are divorced from reality in your district I will rub it in harder. And, hopefully, when we see a sweep of Seattle positions by the Left, I will be high as a kite for days.

Given the only “community leaders” who oppose Sawant are middle managers for Amazon, petty businessmen, and landlords—when you have people that repulsive and vile on your side, of course you are going to lose again and again. Meanwhile, the lessons and actions implemented in this race will be worthwhile going forward for elected officeholders and those wanting to get elected of how to campaign and what to expect from their opponents. That’s not to underscore how effective a political operator Sawant is in taking down ALL of her political opponents

Since I want to maximize my fun, here’s some fun comments from the past that turned out dead wrong

I can see Sawant having a bumpy term and going down in flames, voters just wanted an incumbent out and they got something worse she will have a short political career. And this $15 minimum wage is just pandering by Murray he will balk at enacting it city-wide and just do it for public workers even if it makes the ballot it will fail.

Pulling a Joe Biden isn’t doable then, and it is going to be harder in not delivering now that there still is a major threat to their seats.

Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council[/url

She’s listed concerns about the $15 minimum wage and paid family leave,

Pass.

Oh, so Xing was spouting complete lies then to delude himself in voting against a progressive.

Finally, while I cannot find the post, Deadflagblues made one in the line of him disliking the style of her politics over #populist Bernie Sanders. It should be noted that I can see SAlt continuing to exist and grow with Kshama Sawant once she leaves her seat on Seattle’s council, but Bernie shot himself in the foot too many times and his influence has dwindled since his presidential campaigns. The reason I can see clearly is that Sanders caved in too much into relying on the Democratic Party to elevate himself, that it would be easy to take over and that there would be plenty of allies to join to his side. SAlt’s entryism is dumb, but they are not that idealistic.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Whatever, random dude in Illinois, please tell me more about how I don't know my own neighborhood.

You love to talk about Sawant but I bet you can't name a single thing she's specifically done for the district, or a single local community leader or business that supported her this time but hadn't in the past.

Your arrogance is astounding.  And it's hilarious that you're bragging in your post that you've only grown more arrogant in the wake of your 0.5% victory in a recall election that no other member even had to face, and boasting about how you'll be an even more sore winner next time.  Like you think that's an appealing post?  You think that makes you look good?

You don't know anything about D3.  You don't know anything about Seattle.  You don't know anything about Sawant.  And you need to stop pretending you do.

[PSOL]

Whatever, random dude in Illinois, please tell me more about how I don't know my own neighborhood.

You love to talk about Sawant but I bet you can't name a single thing she's specifically done for the district, or a single local community leader or business that supported her this time but hadn't in the past.


You don't know anything about D3.  You don't know anything about Seattle.  You don't know anything about Sawant.  And you need to stop pretending you do.

lol, I’ve quite literally had several pages worth of evidence of things SAlt has done and the nature of their campaign and their supporters in this very thread.

Is it possible for you to just take a hike and blow off steam elsewhere instead of repeating the same deflection and lies over and over again? Surely focusing on the results and Atlas has caused a fuse or two to break.

[GeneralMacArthur]

You love to talk about Sawant but I bet you can't name a single thing she's specifically done for the district, or a single local community leader or business that supported her this time but hadn't in the past.

lol, I’ve quite literally had several pages worth of evidence of things SAlt has done and the nature of their campaign and their supporters in this very thread.

lol I knew it

[Left Wing]

SAlt has literally no presence in Washington or even Seattle outside of Sawant

[Seattle]

I think Sawant loses in 2023. There were definitely people who voted against the recall and not for Sawant (I would've been one of those). D1 (West Seattle) and D2 (South Seattle) need to grow, which means D3 will need to shed some of its most progressive southern precincts south of Madison. That in itself might tilt the balance of this district enough. I guess it depends on her competition. It's underdiscussed how weak they've been... Pamela Banks was a NIMBY joke and Egan Orion was a markedly unaccomplished candidate (planning PrideFest is great for the LGBTQ community but his short stint at the Capitol Hill Chamber of Commerce was extremely underwhelming to the point that it dissolved months later).

[PSOL]

Who else do they have to run against her? The issue is that even the establishment section of progressive wing of the Democratic Party (not the DSA) both endorsed her and she endorsed them outside of her district. The entirety of the Left worked together for these past few years in enacting change in Seattle. That leaves the main Democratic establishment having to work together with Republicans in finding a suitable candidate, leading to gentrifiers and big business candidates be selected instead.

Redistricting might cause a serious loss of support, but is it enough to offset any gains a higher turnout election would give Sawant and the fact that, unless the left coalition breaks apart, the wider Left including SAlt will be in a stronger position in 2023.

[StateBoiler]

If the city really wanted to screw her, make municipal elections carry ballot labels.

Also wouldn't surprise me they redistrict and hurts her.

[RI]

Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson is running for SoS in 2022 as an Independent. She'll likely be the most qualified candidate on the ballot.

[Xing]

Whatever, when she wins by a wider margin next time I’ll rub it in harder. When you prove that you are divorced from reality in your district I will rub it in harder. And, hopefully, when we see a sweep of Seattle positions by the Left, I will be high as a kite for days.

Given the only “community leaders” who oppose Sawant are middle managers for Amazon, petty businessmen, and landlords—when you have people that repulsive and vile on your side, of course you are going to lose again and again. Meanwhile, the lessons and actions implemented in this race will be worthwhile going forward for elected officeholders and those wanting to get elected of how to campaign and what to expect from their opponents. That’s not to underscore how effective a political operator Sawant is in taking down ALL of her political opponents

Since I want to maximize my fun, here’s some fun comments from the past that turned out dead wrong

I can see Sawant having a bumpy term and going down in flames, voters just wanted an incumbent out and they got something worse she will have a short political career. And this $15 minimum wage is just pandering by Murray he will balk at enacting it city-wide and just do it for public workers even if it makes the ballot it will fail.

Pulling a Joe Biden isn’t doable then, and it is going to be harder in not delivering now that there still is a major threat to their seats.

Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council[/url

She’s listed concerns about the $15 minimum wage and paid family leave,

Pass.

Oh, so Xing was spouting complete lies then to delude himself in voting against a progressive.

Finally, while I cannot find the post, Deadflagblues made one in the line of him disliking the style of her politics over #populist Bernie Sanders. It should be noted that I can see SAlt continuing to exist and grow with Kshama Sawant once she leaves her seat on Seattle’s council, but Bernie shot himself in the foot too many times and his influence has dwindled since his presidential campaigns. The reason I can see clearly is that Sanders caved in too much into relying on the Democratic Party to elevate himself, that it would be easy to take over and that there would be plenty of allies to join to his side. SAlt’s entryism is dumb, but they are not that idealistic.

First of all, I couldn't vote in this election, since I don't live in D3. Second of all, I never denied that there are some issues in which I agree with her. It's her tactics that I can't fully get behind, as well as her constant desire to cause drama and grandstanding. What "lies" did I spout? When did I ever claim that Sawant is against a $15/hr minimum wage? Merely claiming that there are working class progressive voters who have other issues with her (that go beyond policy positions) isn't unsubstantiated. I've mostly discussed how members of my union feel, and I don't think another poster here is more qualified to report on that than I am. You can disagree with me without throwing out accusations like that.

[PSOL]

Sorry, I thought you called Sarah Nelson a progressive before, yeah then I was talking bull••••

[RI]

Surprised no one posted it yet, but Sen. Doug Ericksen died from COVID.

[PSOL]

https://mobile.twitter.com/cmkshama/status/1473744384042569729
https://mobile.twitter.com/cmkshama/status/1473744903020507136
 

[Seattle]

Looks like Eastern Washington LDs may be getting a redraw - maybe not in time for this year's general, but if not in 2022, then in 2023.

Article: https://www.courthousenews.com/federal-judge-urged-to-scrap-redistricting-maps-for-washington-state-legislature/

Attorneys for Latino residents of Yakima Valley in Washington state asked a federal judge to block the redistricted maps for the Legislature from going into effect.

The hearing Tuesday in the Western District of Washington focused both on the claims that the maps dilute the power of Latinos in Yakima Valley to elect their chosen candidates, as well as the timing of the election. The court must determine whether those factors favor tossing out the new maps until the case is decided on its merits at a trial scheduled for early 2023.

...

Gaber said the plaintiffs have met the U.S. Supreme Court’s criteria to prove racial vote dilution under the Voting Rights Act, noting that the Latino community is large and compact enough in Yakima Valley to constitute a majority in a legislative district, is “politically cohesive” and votes as a group to defeat the minority group’s preferred candidate.

Senior U.S. District Judge Robert Lasnik, a Bill Clinton appointee, indicated that the merits of the Latino voters’ case were persuasive but questioned whether it would be appropriate to block use of the maps at this stage of the process. Lasnik pointed to the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision to keep in place Alabama’s congressional map despite evidence of racial gerrymandering, citing the proximity to the election.

[Seattle]

This thread has been real quiet... probably time for a) an updated name for 2022 and b) an early look at legislative races and retirements

Quite the exodus from Olympia - largely on the D side (from safe/solid districts), but also a good number of Rs are also leaving. It does seem like there's a problem in D caucus culture, combined with the part-time nature of the legislature that's leading a lot of newer faces to retire & particularly so for BIPOC pols.

I mapped out the new legislative districts in DRA so will post those later. A few notable changes on the fringes of the metro, Vancouver, and Spokane. Plus a new cross-Cascades 12th!

Retirements in the Senate:

LD-8 Sen. Sharon Brown, R-Kennewick, was appointed in 2013 and currently serves on the Ways & Means Committee. She announced her decision to retire from the legislature in November

LD-35 Sen. Tim Sheldon, DINO-Potlach, is the longest serving member of the Washington Legislature. He was elected to the House in 1990 and the Senate in 1996. He announced his retirement in March.

LD-36 Sen. Reuven Carlyle, D-Seattle, assumed office in 2009 and announced in January that he will leave the legislature at the end of his term. He sits on the Ways & Means Committee.

LD-39 Sen. Keith Wagoner, R-Sedro-Woolley, announced in December his plans to run for Secretary of State. His Senate seat is not up for election so he will return to the Senate if he loses his bid for Secretary of State (pretty likely).

LD-46 Sen. David Frockt, D-Seattle, has served since 2011 and announced in October that he would not seek reelection. He’s the capital budget chair of the Ways & Means Committee and serves on the Health & Long Term Care Committee.

LD-47 Sen. Mona Das, D-Kent, has served since 2021 and announced in March that she is not seeking reelection.




Retirements in the House:

LD-4 Rep. Bob McCaslin, R-Spokane, announced in February that he would leave the legislature to run for Spokane County Auditor. He has been a member of the House since 2014.

LD-8 Rep. Matt Boehnke, R-Kennewick, is serving his second term and sits on the Appropriations Committee. He is running for State Senate to replace Sharon Brown (R).

LD-8 Rep. Brad Klippert, R-Kennewick, is running for WA-4 against incumbent Dan Newhouse (R).

LD-15 Rep. Jeremie Dufault, R-Selah, assumed office in 2019 and will not seek reelection because the state’s new redistricting plans draw him out of district and he and his family do not want to move.

LD-17 Rep. Vicki Kraft, R-Vancouver, is running for WA-3 against incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler.

LD-18 Rep. Larry Hoff, R-Vancouver, is serving his second term in office and announced last week that he will not seek reelection. He sits on the Appropriations and College & Workforce Development Committees.

LD-22 Rep. Laurie Dolan, D-Olympia, assumed office in 2017 and currently serves on the Appropriations Committee. She announced her decision to retire from the legislature in March.

LD-26 Rep. Jesse Young, R-Gig Harbor, was appointed to the House in 2014. He is running for state senate against incumbent Emily Randall (D-Bremerton).

LD-29 Rep. Steve Kirby, D-South Tacoma, has served in the House since 2001 and announced his decision to retire from the legislature in December.

LD-30 Rep. Jesse Johnson, D-Federal Way, was appointed to the legislature in 2020 and announced in early March that he would leave the legislature to spend more time with his family.

LD-34 Rep. Eileen Cody, D-West Seattle, announced her retirement in March. She has served in the House since 1995 and sits on the Appropriations and Health Care and Wellness Committees.

LD-35 Rep. Drew MacEwen, R-Union, has served in office since 2013 and sits on the Appropriations and Capital Budget Committees. He is running for state senate to replace Tim Sheldon (DINO).

LD-36 Rep. Noel Frame, D-Seattle, assumed office in 2016 and serves on the Appropriations Committee. She is running for state senate to replace Reuven Carlyle (D).

LD-37 Rep. Kirsten Harris-Talley, D-Seattle, assumed office in 2021 and announced in March that she would not be running for reelection.

LD-38 Rep. Mike Sells, D-Everett, assumed office in 2005 and announced in February that he would leave the legislature at the end of his term.

LD-38 Rep. Emily Wicks, D-Everett, was appointed in 2020 and announced she will not seek reelection this week.

LD-46 Rep. Javier Valdez, D-Seattle, assumed office in 2017. He is running for state senate to replace David Frockt (D).

LD-47 House Majority Leader Rep. Pat Sullivan, D-Covington, assumed office in 2005 and became the House Majority Leader in 2010. He announced his retirement from the legislature last week.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1522618018567798784

[GeneralMacArthur]

Only news I have to post is a Crosscut/Elway approval poll of my man Bruce Harrell:

40% approve
19% disapprove
41% no opinion

killing it so far

[Roll Roons]

Only news I have to post is a Crosscut/Elway approval poll of my man Bruce Harrell:

40% approve
19% disapprove
41% no opinion

killing it so far

Anything about Davison? As awful as NTK was, I still can't get over the fact that a Republican actually won in Seattle.

[CultureKing]

So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.

How did the new LD-35 vote in 2020?

[LePageFan]

So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.

How did the new LD-35 vote in 2020?

The new LD-35 voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.

How did the new LD-35 vote in 2020?

The new LD-35 voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.

What's the margin, though?

[Seattle]

So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.

How did the new LD-35 vote in 2020?

The new LD-35 voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.

2016: Trump 47.2 - Clinton 43.7, Trump +3.5
2020: Trump 48.7 - Biden 47.7, Trump +1
Voted R in Gov/LG/AG/Senate in 2020, 2018, and 2016 (except for '16 Senate & AG).

[GeneralMacArthur]

Only news I have to post is a Crosscut/Elway approval poll of my man Bruce Harrell:

40% approve
19% disapprove
41% no opinion

killing it so far

Anything about Davison? As awful as NTK was, I still can't get over the fact that a Republican actually won in Seattle.

Davison has been struggling with the unholy mess of an office Pete Holmes left her with, including a backlog of 5,000 cases that were just left to gather dust.

Her main priority has been trying to prosecute the most prolific offenders -- the guys who regularly steal from stores and property downtown and have been getting away with funding an entire lifestyle this way for years without any threat of serious prosecution despite getting caught on a near-weekly basis.  Holmes never seemed to think it was worth bothering with these people because no individual crime they committed was very serious, even though stealing $100 in liquor every single week eventually adds up to an enormous amount of criminal damages, plus just generally a substantial degradation of the city for our businesses.

A few weeks ago she decided to announce they weren't going to prosecute 2,000 of those cases, which the left-wing press in this city had a field day with ("lol see there's no difference between Davison and NTK").  Her big battle has been trying to fight the courts for the right to prosecute the prolific offenders.  The courts require the offenders to be sent to community court, where they get put in programs which they then completely ignore, go right back out on the street to steal again, get arrested, and the cycle repeats itself ad infinitum.  Davison wants to break that cycle but the courts won't let her.  So she's been arguing the case.

Just today she won a major victory in the Seattle Municipal Court -- demonstrating that at the very least, the allegation that Davison was some amateurish attorney unfit for the job was untrue.  We'll see how this holds up.  Obviously I support what Davison is trying to do.  But there are years and years of legal brambles she has to wade through just to do something that should be really simple.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/frequent-offenders-blocked-seattle-community-court/281-43f810a5-2f09-4adf-b926-29be327ce8f0