Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Franklin County updated today, and is now the second county (the other being Adams) to have swung to Obama. This might be a pretty good guess as to why.

[LastVoter]

Franklin County updated today, and is now the second county (the other being Adams) to have swung to Obama. This might be a pretty good guess as to why.

Seems like only Adams swung(31 to 32), but franklin went from 38% Obama to 37%. I'm using
http://vote.wa.gov/results/current/President-Vice-President_ByCounty.html and
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/election/uscounties.html

[bgwah]

Why are you using the Washington Post for 2008 numbers? You do realize you're on an elections results website, right?

here's what I have:
2008: 60.81-37.19 McCain (+23.62 R)
2012: 60.52-37.27 Romney (+23.25 R)

That's a 0.37% swing to Obama. Once Dave adds write-ins, both Romney and Obama will see their percentages decline a little bit, but that shouldn't change the margin much (which is what is used to determine swing).

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I've tabulated the current results of WA-3, and so far Romney is winning it by a little less than 4,000 votes.  He's also winning WA-3's slice of Thurston county by a mere 3 votes. 

[LastVoter]

Why are you using the Washington Post for 2008 numbers? You do realize you're on an elections results website, right?

here's what I have:
2008: 60.81-37.19 McCain (+23.62 R)
2012: 60.52-37.27 Romney (+23.25 R)

That's a 0.37% swing to Obama. Once Dave adds write-ins, both Romney and Obama will see their percentages decline a little bit, but that shouldn't change the margin much (which is what is used to determine swing).

Well usually atlas shows up when you search for something specific on google...
It looks like Adams swing was larger anyway though.

[bgwah]

Why are you using the Washington Post for 2008 numbers? You do realize you're on an elections results website, right?

here's what I have:
2008: 60.81-37.19 McCain (+23.62 R)
2012: 60.52-37.27 Romney (+23.25 R)

That's a 0.37% swing to Obama. Once Dave adds write-ins, both Romney and Obama will see their percentages decline a little bit, but that shouldn't change the margin much (which is what is used to determine swing).

Well usually atlas shows up when you search for something specific on google...

All you have to do is click the "election results" tab at the top of this website.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I never suggested otherwise.

[Seattle]

I'm suprised how little the ancestoral Dem. parts of the coast swung to Romney. He barely did better than McCain on the coast (and for that matter in Mason, Kitsap, and Pierce as well).

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So, when will the precinct results come out for King County?  When the election is finalized?

[Alcon]

Skagit just flipped to Approve on R-74.  I expect Whitman will be joining them tomorrow.

So, when will the precinct results come out for King County?  When the election is finalized?

December 4th, says their web site.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Skagit just flipped to Approve on R-74.  I expect Whitman will be joining them tomorrow.

So, when will the precinct results come out for King County?  When the election is finalized?

December 4th, says their web site.

I didn't see that. 

[Meeker]

Benton ahead by 110 votes. Looks to be nearly over to me.

Stonier ahead by 43 votes in the House race.

[bgwah]

Benton ahead by 110 votes. Looks to be nearly over to me.

Stonier ahead by 43 votes in the House race.

Probst would need to win almost 58% of the remaining ballots to take the lead. Nearly over indeed.

At least Murray seems to be handling Sheldon and Tom fairly well.

[CatoMinor]

Has Washington ever had a cannabis legalization initiative make to the ballot before? If it has I am having hard time finding it.

[Meeker]

Tom and Republican Leader Mike Hewitt are openly talking about installing Tom as Majority Leader of a coalition made up of Republicans, Sheldon and Tom.

On the plus side, I see no way this twit gets re-elected.

[bgwah]

Has Washington ever had a cannabis legalization initiative make to the ballot before? If it has I am having hard time finding it.

No, it was our first vote on legalization. The closest thing would be the medicinal marijuana intitiative in 1998.

Tom and Republican Leader Mike Hewitt are openly talking about installing Tom as Majority Leader of a coalition made up of Republicans, Sheldon and Tom.

On the plus side, I see no way this twit gets re-elected.

I wonder if he'll switch parties again. I think that district may have actually gotten more Democrartic after redistricting. Maybe he'll run against DelBene in 2014. Hah

[Krzysztof Lesiak]

So I think 3 states use this dumb nonpartisan blanket primary, CA, LA, and WA.

I'm glad that AZ soundly defeated it and maybe (hopefully) CA and WA will eliminate this dumb system as soon as possible.

[Meeker]

Today Benton leads by 95 votes; Stonier by 75. Maybe a couple hundred ballots left countywide. 1600 ballots left countywide.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So I think 3 states use this dumb nonpartisan blanket primary, CA, LA, and WA.

I'm glad that AZ soundly defeated it and maybe (hopefully) CA and WA will eliminate this dumb system as soon as possible.

Calling something "dumb" twice doesn't necessarily make it true. It's not dumb, just non-traditional -- the two are not the same thing. Some of us in California liked having an interesting general election race instead of a 70%D/30%R slaughter.

[Alcon]

Whitman flipped to Approve on R-74.

Here are the top Approving municipalities so far in counties reporting precinct results:

1. Langley - 79.6%
2. Bainbridge Island - 79.2%
3. Port Townsend - 77.5%
4. Bellingham - 70.3%
5. Olympia - 70.0%
6. Index - 69.7%
7. La Conner - 69.5%
8. Pullman - 66.0%
9. Ruston - 64.0%
10. Winthrop - 63.5%
11. White Salmon - 62.8%
12. Mountlake Terrace - 61.2%
13. Edmonds - 60.4%
14. Bucoda - 60.0%
15. Leavenworth - 59.7%
16. Coupeville - 59.2%
17. Bingen - 58.7%
18. Tacoma - 58.4%
19. Brier - 58.0%
20. Tumwater - 57.7%
...
25. Everett - 55.2%
26. Bremerton - 55.1%
...
39. Spokane - 51.6%
...
75. Walla Walla - 46.2%
...
89. Wenatchee - 43.1%
...
97. Richland - 41.0%
...
101. Spokane Valley - 40.0%
...
119. Kennewick - 35.9%
...
139. Latah - 29.3%
140. Lind - 28.6%
141. Spangle - 28.4%
142. Brewster - 28.0%
143. Mossyrock - 27.8%
144. Fairfield - 27.5%
145. Nooksack - 27.1%
146. Washtucna - 23.6%
147. Lynden - 20.7%
148. Hatton - 15.8%

[bgwah]

Fun fact: Democrats held a 51-48 majority in the State House after the 1962 elections. Republicans sided with seven DINOs to install a DINO as Speaker.

[smoltchanov]

Fun fact: Democrats held a 51-48 majority in the State House after the 1962 elections. Republicans sided with seven DINOs to install a DINO as Speaker.

So many DINO's at that time??? It seems to me, that now it's easier to find RINO then DINO in the state (Tim Sheldon excluded))))

[CatoMinor]

So I think 3 states use this dumb nonpartisan blanket primary, CA, LA, and WA.

I'm glad that AZ soundly defeated it and maybe (hopefully) CA and WA will eliminate this dumb system as soon as possible.

Calling something "dumb" twice doesn't necessarily make it true. It's not dumb, just non-traditional -- the two are not the same thing. Some of us in California liked having an interesting general election race instead of a 70%D/30%R slaughter.

Yes. Yes it is a terrible voting system.

[smoltchanov]

So I think 3 states use this dumb nonpartisan blanket primary, CA, LA, and WA.

I'm glad that AZ soundly defeated it and maybe (hopefully) CA and WA will eliminate this dumb system as soon as possible.

On the contrary - i hope this system being gradually implemented everywhere. I am fed up with the system, where a small number "ideologically pure" primary activists frequently nominates crazies and then normal people get the only choice: who of these 2 is "relatively more normal"

[Meeker]

The ability to have competitive intra-party elections in certain districts is a fun aspect of top-two, but eventually there will be a D vs. D or an R vs. R race for a major office like Governor or Senator. The public will be aghast, opinion will quickly turn against the system, and it'll be abandoned soon afterwards. This could take decades, but eventually it will happen.

Also, as I've written in past posts here, a top-two system significantly decreases public input into who will be major party candidates in competitive races. There is an invisible primary that occurs behind the scenes between major donors and party political leaders to make sure that the scenario I described above doesn't happen (more so than there is in other states). Jay Inslee didn't run unopposed for Governor on the Democratic side this year because everyone just liked him so much.

[smoltchanov]

The ability to have competitive intra-party elections in certain districts is a fun aspect of top-two, but eventually there will be a D vs. D or an R vs. R race for a major office like Governor or Senator. The public will be aghast, opinion will quickly turn against the system, and it'll be abandoned soon afterwards. This could take decades, but eventually it will happen.

Also, as I've written in past posts here, a top-two system significantly decreases public input into who will be major party candidates in competitive races. There is an invisible primary that occurs behind the scenes between major donors and party political leaders to make sure that the scenario I described above doesn't happen (more so than there is in other states). Jay Inslee didn't run unopposed for Governor on the Democratic side this year because everyone just liked him so much.

In such case it will be a liberal Democrat vs. moderate Democrat or conservative Republican vs. moderate Republican race and i don't see anything terrible in such situation. IMHO - the situation i described above, where a far-right and far-left activists essentially anoint candidates of corresponding parties and (BIG!) center elects "lesser of 2 evils" is much worse.