Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Seattle]

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http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/10/21/state-sen-scott-white-found-dead/

It is quite sad! =(
And he had so much potential.

[RI]

Must...not...make...Death Note reference.

[Frodo]

Good news (of sorts) for those who care about transportation. 

[greenforest32]

Good news (of sorts) for those who care about transportation. 

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I think 36% opposition is too weak to prevent it from passing.

Guess we'll find out soon. When is the election anyway? Next week or the week after?

[Frodo]

Good news (of sorts) for those who care about transportation.  

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I think 36% opposition is too weak to prevent it from passing.

Guess we'll find out soon. When is the election anyway? Next week or the week after?

November 8, according to the WA SOS 2011 election calendar.  

So the week after. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Just wondering, why the hell don't we have anyone to counteract Tim Eyman up here? 

[Meeker]

An "anti-Tim Eyman" would require an "anti-Kemper Freeman".

[Alcon]

Interesting bit of microtargetting detail:  The No on I-1183 people (liquor privatization) are running Internet ads encouraging voters to "Stand with Democrats in voting against I-1183."  It has a picture of Gregoire in it.  Weird choice.

[bgwah]

Interesting bit of microtargetting detail:  The No on I-1183 people (liquor privatization) are running Internet ads encouraging voters to "Stand with Democrats in voting against I-1183."  It has a picture of Gregoire in it.  Weird choice.

And Dow Constantine! I've been getting it a lot. It's better than the "Chris Christie Stands with Mitt" ad I was getting forever.

[Jackson]

The ad's i'm getting have no pictures in them at all!?

[Alcon]

New Washington Poll out.  This one is actually big, a registered voter sample of near 1,000 registered voters conducted throughout this month.  Full poll.

tl;dr summary:  Liquor leads, Eyman is slipping, Inslee is struggling, state voters don't like the GOP presidential candidates, marijuana is 50/50, gay marriage would be easily sustained at the ballot box.

I-1183 (Liquor privatization)
Yes 50%
No 43%

I-1183 does slightly better among right-leaners than left-leaners, but otherwise the demography is very consistent.

I-1125 (Eyman's transit thing)
Yes 41%
No 40%

Democrats don't like it; Republicans do.  Seems to be showing some significant weakness outside of the Puget Sound metro.  The measure seems to be degrading in popularity as time goes along, in this poll and others.

Governor
McKenna (R) 44%
Inslee (D) 38%

U.S. President
Obama (D) 54%
Perry (R) 41%

Obama (D) 50%
Romney (R) 41%

Favorables
Obama: 52-43
Gregoire: 44-50
State legislature: 32-46 (that's oddly high?)
U.S. Congress: 14-76
Rob McKenna: 47-20
Maria Cantwell: 53-34
Jay Inslee: 33-17
Mitt Romney: 36-42
Rick Perry: 21-51

Issue approval
Healthcare reform: 37-47
DADT repeal: 64-24
Legalization/regulation of marijuana: 48-42

Theoretical referendum if state legislature passes Gay Marriage
Approve 55%
Reject 38%

[Seattle]

Certainly some surprising stuff! This is the second poll showing a sizeable passing of a gay marriage law. I'd like to see PPP poll WA and ask that and it'd be great if that could get on teh ballot here.

Still seems to me no one knows who Inslee is, while Gregoire's numbers have really rebounded.

Cantwell seems to be cruising along nicely.

[Marston]

Didn't Washington's "Everything But Marriage" referendum pass rather narrowly back in 09?

[RI]

Didn't Washington's "Everything But Marriage" referendum pass rather narrowly back in 09?

Yes. I remain skeptical that gay marriage could actually pass if put to a vote except maybe in a highly Democratic year (2008?). There seems to usually be some sort of gay-related Bradley effect that occurs in polls, especially this far out from any potential vote.

[Ogre Mage]

McKenna's 6% lead on Inslee is very consistent with what we have seen from other polls.  50% of the people in this poll have no idea who Inslee is vs. only 33% for McKenna, so he has room to grow.  But McKenna has a good favorability rating and definitely came into the race in a stronger position.  He will be tough to beat.

Cantwell will be fine but we knew that already.

[LastVoter]

I wonder how would that marijuana legalization vote would go.

[CultureKing]

Didn't Washington's "Everything But Marriage" referendum pass rather narrowly back in 09?

Yes. I remain skeptical that gay marriage could actually pass if put to a vote except maybe in a highly Democratic year (2008?). There seems to usually be some sort of gay-related Bradley effect that occurs in polls, especially this far out from any potential vote.

Yes but 2009 was a horrible year for such a measure; democrats and liberals don't have the same drive to vote on off-years as Republicans. I am willing to bet that it would have passed by a larger margin in 2010. Also we need to remember that the right was able to define the referendum in 2009 as more or less a vote on gay marriage.

[Seattle]

What would an approve/reject map look for a vote on gay marriage? All the Puget Sound counties approving it minus Pierce? I think Mason county would probably approve it this time around.  Basically identical to the "Everything but Marriage" map?

[CultureKing]

What would an approve/reject map look for a vote on gay marriage? All the Puget Sound counties approving it minus Pierce? I think Mason county would probably approve it this time around.  Basically identical to the "Everything but Marriage" map?

I imagine it would very narrowly pass, with the following counties voting in favor of passing the measure:
- King
- San Juan
- Jefferson
- Thurston
- Snohomish
- Whatcom
- Grays Harbor
- Pacific
- Island

Although I am very unsure about those last three...

[bgwah]

I don't see any reason the map wouldn't be similar to R-71.

[Alcon]

Didn't Washington's "Everything But Marriage" referendum pass rather narrowly back in 09?

Yes. I remain skeptical that gay marriage could actually pass if put to a vote except maybe in a highly Democratic year (2008?). There seems to usually be some sort of gay-related Bradley effect that occurs in polls, especially this far out from any potential vote.

We didn't see that with Referendum 71, although there were a ton of people who supported "equal recognition but not marriage" and then started opposing it once the referendum was forwarded.  There may be a Bradley Effect for gay marriage, but the polls here have been pretty consistent.  None have even been within single digits.  It just seems like registered voters is a much better group for gays than 2009 voters, which is not that surprising.

I also think the map would look really similar to R-71, which went this way:



I'm not convinced that gay marriage benefits that much from a highly Democratic year.  I just don't think that we're apt to see big partisanship turnout variances in Presidential years with mail voting.  I don't think many swing voters are going to vote against gay marriage because they flipped from Obama in 2008 to the GOP in 2012.

[bgwah]

Darcy Burner is running in WA-1.

lol.

[Meeker]

Her campaign released a poll that has her ahead in the primary 47 to 12 to things less than 12.

I'd say there's roughly an 80% chance she'll win the whole thing.

[bgwah]

Why? We actually have better choices now!

If I end up in the 1st, I'll probably be voting for Liias.

[Meeker]

She has the name rec and the money. There's no reason to think she won't win. If she only had one major challenger then they might have a chance of knocking her off, but with the rest of the field split six ways? Pretty damn difficult.