Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

It's very important to note that many of the remaining ballots -- an estimated 20,000 in King County -- are suspended ballots that were challenged for signature errors.  Most of them won't be counted, as far as I know.

This is probably true in other counties' "ballots remaining" totals too, but I doubt there's across-the-board consistency on that.

Though in close races the campaigns and parties are looking to make as many of those ballots valid as possible.

[Ogre Mage]

Postscript from the Murray/Rossi race -- Danny Westneat writes that Murray lost men by 6 points but won women by 12, the largest gender gap of her electoral career:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/dannywestneat/2013389389_danny10.html


It jibes with a post I wrote on October 29 -- that Murray appeared to be honing in on women voters and that I suspected there was "Rossi fatigue" out there.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127060.msg2701795#msg2701795

[redcommander]

What is the composition so far of the next state legislature? Are Republicans in control of either of the bodies or are they still Democratic majorities?

[bgwah]

What is the composition so far of the next state legislature? Are Republicans in control of either of the bodies or are they still Democratic majorities?

Democrats have retained both.

[Ogre Mage]

What is the composition so far of the next state legislature? Are Republicans in control of either of the bodies or are they still Democratic majorities?

Per The Olympian, there are three races in the state legislature which are still outstanding.  If the Democrats lose all three, they will maintain control of the Senate by a 27-22 margin and the House by 56-42.

http://www.theolympian.com/2010/11/12/1437858/18-votes-hand-recount-nears-for.html

[Meeker]

I don't know if anyone knows about Dale Washam outside of Pierce County, but man, the News Tribune is on the warpath against him...not that I'm complaining.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/2010/11/14/1424046/gadfly-in-charge.html

From day two of making him their biggest story:

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I can't believe we elected this dude.

Yeah, I had no idea it was this bad. I thought he was just sort of an incompetent boob. Hopefully these articles will kick the recall effort into serious gear.

[Meeker]

Zeiger is back up by 28

[bgwah]

Hans Zeiger: Rob McKenna's love child?

[bgwah]

Gov '08 - Sen '10 Trend:



Ranges from 12.95 D (Benton) to 8.84 R (Whitman). Same color scales for both parties.

Guess Benton liked all that pork! And WSU doesn't bother voting in midterms, obviously.

Douglas had the smallest trend (0.0003) towards the Democrats. Neighboring Chelan had the smallest trend towards the Republicans (0.20).

[Alcon]

Dawn Morrell: Increasingly screweder by the day.  Sorry Meeks.

[Meeker]

Dawn Morrell: Increasingly screweder by the day.  Sorry Meeks.

The recount is on the 29th. I'll pray for a miracle.

Meanwhile, the Wiggins/Sanders race is now out of recount territory.

[Alcon]

Hans Zeigler (R) 24,877
Dawn Morrell (D) 24,838

Steve Litzow (R) 29,513
Randy Gordon (D) 29,371

Vincent Buys (R) 30,594
Kelli Linville (D) 30,436

Linville is dead in the water -- Whatcom is out of ballots.  Still, not a terrible showing, and she'll be back for 2012 if she wants to.

King has 15,000 ballots left, but especially since many of those are probably dead signature ballots, Gordon is probably dead too...

[Torie]

Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008? One interesting thing in this election, is that in the present climate the swing seemed in general (with some variance at the top of  the tickets), to rather seamlessly flow through to almost every race, and it didn't matter much who was running - adjusting of course for the loyal GOP and Dem cohorts no matter what zones  (e.g., elite higher education precincts). I am beginning to appreciate that more and more, as I parse this election on a micro scale.

In Michigan for example, it is quite stunning. I mean, picking but one example, and there are many others in Michigan, Levin had a huge dump down in his numbers in his CD, outside his Jewish and black precincts, against a unfunded token zero for an opponent - at least I presume that was the case as to his opponent. In Levin's portion of southern Macomb County (middle to lower middle to working class white, and pretty heavily Catholic), his percentage dropped from 67% to 53%, while only dropping in his heavily Jewish and black portion of Oakland County, from 83% to 78%. Quite stunning, no?

And oh, what Dingell endured in his white precincts in Wayne County. Oh dear. But he did splendidly in Ann Arbor.

[Sam Spade]

Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008?

Almost certainly not as much as the national swing, but probably not as weak as CA.  I haven't really gone hardcore through the numbers though.

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Yep.  It is rather clear what was going on, where and why.  Not that this wasn't foreseen by a number of posters on this forum, although often in quite vague pronouncements

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[Brittain33]

The flip side of the dramatic change in MI in 2010 was how the Republicans completely collapsed there in 2008 when McCain pulled out... MI is one of those states like CA where I don't trust PVIs because the Republicans absolutely cratered there two years ago. No doubt there was also a big drop in Dems, but they had further to fall.

[tpfkaw]

Well, the Dems completely collapsed in MI this year.  I think it's just a very "swingy" state.  I do agree that CA is more Democratic than D+7 would suggest.

[Meeker]

Anyways, back to Washington...

[Sam Spade]

The flip side of the dramatic change in MI in 2010 was how the Republicans completely collapsed there in 2008 when McCain pulled out... MI is one of those states like CA where I don't trust PVIs because the Republicans absolutely cratered there two years ago. No doubt there was also a big drop in Dems, but they had further to fall.

Don't disagree at all.  Added to that is the fact that many of those MI CDs have normally been more GOP at the Congressional level than at the Presidential level and you have problems.  Of course, some of the states where Dems fell further were not exactly predictable based upon PVI, rather upon other factors.

In CA, the PVIs worked pretty well.  If anything, Dems overperformed with a few interesting exceptions.

[bgwah]

Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008? One interesting thing in this election, is that in the present climate the swing seemed in general (with some variance at the top of  the tickets), to rather seamlessly flow through to almost every race, and it didn't matter much who was running - adjusting of course for the loyal GOP and Dem cohorts no matter what zones  (e.g., elite higher education precincts). I am beginning to appreciate that more and more, as I parse this election on a micro scale.

In Michigan for example, it is quite stunning. I mean, picking but one example, and there are many others in Michigan, Levin had a huge dump down in his numbers in his CD, outside his Jewish and black precincts, against a unfunded token zero for an opponent - at least I presume that was the case as to his opponent. In Levin's portion of southern Macomb County (middle to lower middle to working class white, and pretty heavily Catholic), his percentage dropped from 67% to 53%, while only dropping in his heavily Jewish and black portion of Oakland County, from 83% to 78%. Quite stunning, no?

And oh, what Dingell endured in his white precincts in Wayne County. Oh dear. But he did splendidly in Ann Arbor.

The WA Dems lost most of their 06/08 gains, but not all of them. I would say they're still a bit stronger than in 2004. WA-3 was an anomaly that has been corrected, and it was going to be Republican in 2012 after redistricting anyway.

[Meeker]

Updates on the 25th LD recount:

- Currently a 38 vote margin (0.08%).
- 151 ballots in the 25th LD still have signature issues (131 mismatches, 20 unsigned envelopes).
- The Pierce County Auditor sent all these voters a letter. And called them. And called them again Wednesday. And called them again today. And will call them again on Friday.
- Those 151 voters have until the 22nd to rectify their ballot issues.
- 324 voters in the 25th LD have already rectified their ballot issues.
- Military and overseas votes can still be received until certification on the 23rd.
- The recount will start on the 29th. They're hoping to have it all done in five days. They'll work 8 AM to 5 PM shifts.

Oh yeah, the whole thing is going to cost the county $75,000.

[Torie]

I must say that is ludicrous. If voters can't do it right, f them. To spend all that money that way is pathetic. JMO.

[Meeker]

I must say that is ludicrous. If voters can't do it right, f them. To spend all that money that way is pathetic. JMO.

Most of the costs are staffing the recount and not the repeated phoning of voters. Though I do agree that it does seem a bit excessive... especially given the fact that the parties are going to do this as well.

[bgwah]

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but LD results for King County: http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/elections/201011/General2010Abstract.pdf

Seattle is probably about 78-79 or so Murray. Can't say for certain due to the 11th and 34th districts being split.

A precinct map of liquor privatization will be interesting, since there is little partisan correlation.

[Alcon]

I wonder how many of the voters are Internet registrants who have to submit a signature before they can vote.  I've never quite figured out how that works with our system.  Anyone have any idea?

Looks like Dave Reichert's final showing will be almost exactly 52%.  He's probably gone in 2012 unless something changes or Darcy Burner runs again.

[Ogre Mage]

Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008?

The state legislature races are a good measure of grassroots movement.  The 2010 elections have ended four years of Democratic super-dominance and returned the body to the modest Democratic majority which existed prior to the 2006 elections.

2003-2004:  Senate R 25-24   House D 52-46
2005-2006:  Senate D 26-23   House D 56-42
2007-2008:  Senate D 32-17   House D 63-35
2009-2010:  Senate D 31-18   House D 64-34
2011-2012 (projected):  Senate 27-22   House D 56-42

The 2010 swing to the GOP was significant and not far off from the swing to the Dems in 2006.  The 2005-2006 and projected 2011-2012 numbers are about the partisan composition I would expect to see in Washington in a neutral political environment.  What happened in WA in 2010 was not a huge GOP wave, more like a course correction to the norm.

Historically, the GOP has been competitive in local district races.  However, they have continually failed in major statewide races -- a trend which continued this year.