Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

Turnout estimate: 2,553,428/3,601,152 (70.91%)

Wow.  So that means that almost as many people turned out in 2010 as in 2012?  Obama won the state about 1.6 Million to 1.1 Million IIRC.

Turnout was 85% in 2008 and 82% in 2004. So we aren't quite at Presidential levels here but it's still ridiculously high for a midterm.

One factor that probably contributed to higher turnout apart from the general excitement about this particular election is the fact that back in 2006 King County still had polling sites open. Closing those doubtlessly increased King County turnout by several percentage points alone.

[Alcon]

There will be a projected 2,553,976 votes cast this year, and that number has been consistently rising.  In 2008, there were 3,071,587 votes cast.  In other words, 2010 raw turnout will be a full 83.2% of 2008's.

At the county level, this ranges from a low of 71.5% in Whitman County to a high of 127.5% in Franklin County.  Four counties report >90% retention versus 2008, and none of them are growth counties like Franklin:  Columbia (97.5%), Ferry (91.8%), Lincoln (91.1%) and Pend Oreille (90.6%).  Pretty insane when you think about it.  It's pretty near impossible to mobilize more voters than that in a non-Presidential year.  Go team.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just asking, but why haven't more states adopted the vote by mail system of the Pacific Northwest?
I'd expect that at least solidly Democratic states would adopt this system since it enhances turnout considerably. It seems to me that's good policy AND good politics for Democrats.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

How much of the turnout is the ballot by mail system and how much of it is demographics though? Does anyone have turnout numbers for WA from when they just did normal election day voting?

[redcommander]

Washington didn't reject the Republican wave. They just had a crappy person at the top of the ticket who couldn't even win after two cycles of name exposure. If McKenna had ran, the results would have been much different in the state.

[bgwah]

Washington didn't reject the Republican wave.

Which is why Larsen won, Reichert wins by less than 2008! and the Democrats retained both houses of the legislature. Right.

[bgwah]

And Wiggins is officially ahead by 3,491 votes.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hey, all you pinko WA commie libs. Does WA make this election a net plus for you, the way you humiliated the jack booted thugs in the promise land in a wave election for them outside this one particular sanctuary of sanity? Just asking. Cheers.

I like your Colleen Hanabusa picture.  I also like the fact that California may have resisted the GOP wave even more strongly than Washington.

It's not so much that we resisted it as that there simply was no such thing here.q

[Ogre Mage]

And Wiggins is officially ahead by 3,491 votes.

If Wiggins can pull this off it portends a big change in the balance of power on the WA Supreme Court.  Gerry Alexander (a swing vote/moderate Republican) has to step down in 2011 because of the age limit law for judges; Gregoire will appoint his successor.  If both Sanders and Alexander are replaced by more liberal justices we will likely see significant changes in the Court's jurisprudence in the future. 

I've heard both Mary Kay Becker and Mary Yu floated as possible successors for Alexander.  Gregoire will have to be careful to select someone who can win election.

God, I wish we could get rid of Jim Johnson, too.  I dislike him even more than Sanders. 

[Meeker]

Weirdo and crappy Democrat Mark Miloscia (Federal Way) is running against Frank Chopp for Speaker. Good luck with that, Mark.

http://www.theolympian.com/2010/11/10/1434754/rep-miloscia-says-he-wants-to.html

[bgwah]

Definitely looking like Randy Gordon just might win in the 41st...

[Meeker]

Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor) has announced his intentions to run for House Majority Leader in the wake of Lynn Kessler's retirement: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/11/10/gig-harbor-rep-larry-seaquist-wants-house-majority-leader-job/

Ugh - can't some good Democrats run for these positions? Upthegrove? Hudgins? Dunshee? Even Santos would be fine.

[Meeker]

Bad news in the 25th LD. Zeiger has taken a 28 vote lead (nearly 50,000 votes were cast in total).

There are about 350 ballots left to count in the entire county; probably a few dozen of those come from the 25th.

[Alcon]

Bad news in the 25th LD. Zeiger has taken a 28 vote lead (nearly 50,000 votes were cast in total).

There are about 350 ballots left to count in the entire county; probably a few dozen of those come from the 25th.

The Morrell campaign is apparently almost camping outside the doors of Democratic voters with challenged ballots.

[Meeker]

Bad news in the 25th LD. Zeiger has taken a 28 vote lead (nearly 50,000 votes were cast in total).

There are about 350 ballots left to count in the entire county; probably a few dozen of those come from the 25th.

The Morrell campaign is apparently almost camping outside the doors of Democratic voters with challenged ballots.

Excellent.

[bgwah]

Bad news in the 25th LD. Zeiger has taken a 28 vote lead (nearly 50,000 votes were cast in total).

There are about 350 ballots left to count in the entire county; probably a few dozen of those come from the 25th.

Whaaaat?! Nooo!!!

[Meeker]

Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor) has announced his intentions to run for House Majority Leader in the wake of Lynn Kessler's retirement: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/11/10/gig-harbor-rep-larry-seaquist-wants-house-majority-leader-job/

Ugh - can't some good Democrats run for these positions? Upthegrove? Hudgins? Dunshee? Even Santos would be fine.

I got my wish! Declared candidates for House Majority Leader now include: Pat Sullivan (Covington), Zack Hudgins (Tukwila), Jeff Morris (Anacortes), Larry Springer (Kirkland), Hans Dunshee (Snohomish) and Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor).

Not sure who the favorite here is; perhaps Morris. I would personally prefer Hudgins followed by Dunshee. Springer and Morris are moderates along with Sullivan while Hudgins and Dunshee are from the left-wing of the caucus. No one cares about Seaquist.

[bgwah]

Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor) has announced his intentions to run for House Majority Leader in the wake of Lynn Kessler's retirement: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/11/10/gig-harbor-rep-larry-seaquist-wants-house-majority-leader-job/

Ugh - can't some good Democrats run for these positions? Upthegrove? Hudgins? Dunshee? Even Santos would be fine.

I got my wish! Declared candidates for House Majority Leader now include: Pat Sullivan (Covington), Zack Hudgins (Tukwila), Jeff Morris (Anacortes), Larry Springer (Kirkland), Hans Dunshee (Snohomish) and Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor).

Not sure who the favorite here is; perhaps Morris. I would personally prefer Hudgins followed by Dunshee. Springer and Morris are moderates along with Sullivan while Hudgins and Dunshee are from the left-wing of the caucus. No one cares about Seaquist.

I don't know about this year since I don't live in the area anymore, but Springer used to have "Liberal Larry" on his campaign signs.

[Meeker]

Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor) has announced his intentions to run for House Majority Leader in the wake of Lynn Kessler's retirement: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/11/10/gig-harbor-rep-larry-seaquist-wants-house-majority-leader-job/

Ugh - can't some good Democrats run for these positions? Upthegrove? Hudgins? Dunshee? Even Santos would be fine.

I got my wish! Declared candidates for House Majority Leader now include: Pat Sullivan (Covington), Zack Hudgins (Tukwila), Jeff Morris (Anacortes), Larry Springer (Kirkland), Hans Dunshee (Snohomish) and Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor).

Not sure who the favorite here is; perhaps Morris. I would personally prefer Hudgins followed by Dunshee. Springer and Morris are moderates along with Sullivan while Hudgins and Dunshee are from the left-wing of the caucus. No one cares about Seaquist.

I don't know about this year since I don't live in the area anymore, but Springer used to have "Liberal Larry" on his campaign signs.

Interesting. He was a member of the Blue Dog-esque "Roadkill Caucus" last session and has never struck me as very progressive.

[Alcon]

The "Liberal Larry" signs were Republican knock-offs that linked to an anti-Springer web site.

[Meeker]

Zeiger's lead is now down to 18 votes. Pierce County says they still have the same number of ballots left to process that they did on Wednesday (350) so who knows how many votes are actually left.

[bgwah]

The "Liberal Larry" signs were Republican knock-offs that linked to an anti-Springer web site.

LOL, and I thought Larry Springer was cool!

[Alcon]

Incoming ballots have basically slowed to nothing (King and Snohomish both have fewer ballots than they thought), Sanders is a cooked goose:

Sanders 971,686 (49.73%)
Wiggins 982,362 (50.27%)
Margin: Wiggins +10,676 (+0.55%)

Murray 1,314,239 (52.33%)
Rossi 1,197,159 (47.67%)
Margin: Murray +117,081 (+4.66%)

Turnout estimate: 2,565,061/3,601,152 (71.23%)

[Meeker]

Also, in another back-from-the-dead moment, Linville now trails by only 177 votes. This is destined to go to at least a machine recount and is only a few hundredths of a percentage point away from one by hand.

EDIT: Oh yeah, bets on when Linville's opponent comes out of the closet? http://www.vincentbuys.com/

[Alcon]

It's very important to note that many of the remaining ballots -- an estimated 20,000 in King County -- are suspended ballots that were challenged for signature errors.  Most of them won't be counted, as far as I know.

This is probably true in other counties' "ballots remaining" totals too, but I doubt there's across-the-board consistency on that.