Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[frihetsivrare]

I have my ballot as well.

My votes:
U.S. Senate: Clint Didier (R)
U.S. House: John Carmack (R)
42nd LD Senate: Doug Ericksen (R)
42nd LD House Position 1: Richard May (D)
Position 2: Vincent Buys (R)
Whatcom County Council: Tony Larson (Non-partisan)
Supreme Court: Richard Sanders and Stan Rumbaugh (Non-partisan)

[Lunar]

I don't read this thread 'cuz it scares me, but I enjoy how Rossi is racking up all those critical endorsements, y'know, Coburn & DeMint

I wish Illinois's primary wasn't held so early, so Kirk would have had to be a right-wing partisan for 6 more months...

[Meeker]

Something that just became apparent to me today that is worth mentioning: voters' pamphlets are not being issued statewide. The Secretary of State is not printing one for federal races and a number of counties aren't including federal races in their local pamphlets. Snohomish County isn't printing anything this year.

I think this is going to significantly impact lesser known and fringe candidates. Washington State typically gives a larger share of the vote to the random nobodies than other states because every candidate at a minimum gets a paragraph that voters can choose to read when they're marking their ballot. A lot of people vote solely based on what's in those pamphlets and now they're going to have no basis for making a decision in some races.

[Meeker]

I've said a lot upthread about the dynamics on the Republican side of WA-03 and don't really have much to add. It's all about margins in Clark, Lewis and Thurston and who Hedrick takes votes from (if anyone at all). It's also been difficult for me to get a good handle on what the various sides are doing. I know Herrera has had a TV ad running on cable for a while now and has some robocalls out. I've got no idea what Castillo has been up to. The lack of voters' guide that I mentioned a bit earlier will hurt Hedrick and Crist to the benefit of Herrera/Castillo and Heck. I expect Crist to do worse in every county compared to her 2008 results.

Anyways, here's my guess on the numbers tomorrow:

Heck: 38%
Herrera: 24%
Castillo: 19%
Crist: 9%
Hedrick: 8%
Stevens: 2%

Though I may have been thinking about this whole thing too long to actually have any sort of clear idea what's going on.

[bgwah]

^ So you're expecting the Democratic candidates to get 47%? That seems kind of high to me... I would expect more like 43%.

For Senate, I'm thinking something along the lines of:
45% Murray
35% Rossi
12% Didiers
5% Akers
3% Other

But I'm probably completely wrong, so don't laugh at me in 24 hours. I wonder how many (if any) counties Didier will win? I think he could win Franklin, and maybe some of the surrounding counties (Lincoln? I dunno...). Skamania and the NE trio (Stevens, Pend Oreille, and Ferry) always seem to vote anti-establishment in primaries so they're ones to watch. Though I imagine a split R vote will keep Skamania and Pend Oreille as Murray counties. I could still see Didier beating Rossi in them, maybe...

I'm actually kind of excited for WA-8... Obviously Reichert and Delbene will advance, but given Reichert's recent antics and the Times' endorsements of that other Republican, I'll be interested to see how much he gets.

The eight candidate 40th LD race should also be fun. And I look forward to watching Alcon's candidate lose to Jessica Smeall and Stevennick's dad!

[Meeker]

I might shave a point or two off Heck but I think he's going to do pretty well. He won't fall below 35%.

Though I may have a completely warped perception of things.

[CultureKing]

Hmmm... I guess I will go ahead and do a WA-03 prediction as well (though living in Olympia probably gives me a bit of a bias compared to the rest of the district):
Heck: 41%
Herrera: 23%
Castillo: 21%
Hedrick: 10%
Crist: 4%
Stevens: 1%

Though it is nearly impossible to predict what will happen with the republicans, personally I am hoping for a Hedrick upset, just for the hilarity of the situation for the GOP.

Senate:
Murray: 46%
Rossi: 28%
Didiers: 19%
Akers: 4%
Others: 3%

Never underestimate the number of right-wing crazies in the Republican party here in Washington, I was even tempted to give a larger share to Didiers.

[SPC]

Prediction (based off of my general election senate model for a four-way race) :
Murray 47%
Rossi 31%
Didier 14%
Akers 6%
Others 2% (just a guess)

If Murray gets above 50% does she still have to run in the general election?

[bgwah]

If Murray gets above 50% does she still have to run in the general election?

Yes.

[bgwah]

Just to keep the more local stuff confined to this thread:

The 31st LD Sen race is looking to be R vs R so far, with Roach and Richardson. Ugh. One of the house races is also close to R vs R but not quite... And Hurst's "Independent Dem." thing is apparently genius--he has 58% of the vote right now while Democrats elsewhere in the district are going down in flames.

[CultureKing]

Ugh, why can't thurston county get its act together? CD 3 is going to be quite off until a report from there comes in. Even King has reported some numbers. I guess we will just have to wait for tomorrow.


By the way, anyone else blown away by Crist's over performance and Castillo's under performance so far?

[bgwah]

Ugh, why can't thurston county get its act together? CD 3 is going to be quite off until a report from there comes in. Even King has reported some numbers. I guess we will just have to wait for tomorrow.


By the way, anyone else blown away by Crist's over performance and Castillo's under performance so far?

Haha, yeah. The Senate race has been kind of boring and expected. Castillo's failure in WA-3 has definitely been the most interesting part of the election. He barely beat Crist!

[Meeker]

Americans for Prosperity is already out with an attack ad on Heck: http://www.politico.com/singletitlevideo.html?bcpid=88099111001&bctid=587476337001

It's a $118,000 buy on cable and network TV for the next week.

[Meeker]

I'll hold off on a complete analysis of the State Legislature results until more of the ballots are in, but the numbers in thus far look quite miserable for the Democrats. I'll also finally finish up my State House predictions within the next two weeks.

[bgwah]

I'll hold off on a complete analysis of the State Legislature results until more of the ballots are in, but the numbers in thus far look quite miserable for the Democrats. I'll also finally finish up my State House predictions within the next two weeks.

Eh, we knew they were going to lose seats, it was just hard to know where. This helps.

Notable incumbents who we can now see are in danger:
Rep. Linville (D-42) behind her GOP opponent at 49%
Sen. Marr (D-6) behind his GOP opponent at 49%
Sen. Oemig (D-45) behind his GOP opponent at 49%
Sen. Gordon (D-41) behind his GOP opponent at 49.6%

The Democrats should be able to hold both houses, albeit with smaller majorities.

I haven't see any incumbents who look completely dead, except for Geoff Simpson (but we already knew that, didn't we?), but I could be missing someone.

[Meeker]

I'm pretty sure Kauffman, also in the 47th, is gone (she's at 45%). John Driscoll in the 6th is only pulling 41%. Dawn Morrell in the 25th is also at 41% though there's a fringe Democrat getting 5%.

Then there's a whole slew of incumbents or open seats that are in real danger, a number of which should not be on the competitive list. But again, we should wait for final results before drawing too many conclusions.

[Meeker]

Random note: State Senator Jean Berkey is losing to a more liberal primary challenger named Nick Harper 35% to 33%. A third candidate who "Prefers Conservative Party" is at 31%.

[Meeker]

3rd CD update: David Hedrick has endorsed Herrera and Cheryl Crist has endorsed Heck. David Castillo says he isn't ready to make an endorsement.

In related news, the combined Democratic % yesterday went down in Clark, Cowlitz, Skamania and Wahkiakum but went up in Thurston. Lewis and Pacific aren't reporting anything new until tomorrow.

[Holmes]

Jamie Pedersen is adorable. Pocket gay.

[SPC]

Seeing how Rasmussen typically tends to inflate a candidate's numbers after they win the primary (See Rand Paul, Joe Sestak, Sharron Angle, Linda McMahon, Elaine Marshall, Lee Fisher, etc.), their new poll can't be good news for Rossi. If he's down by 4 points with a post-primary boost, I don't see how he's going to reverse that by election day.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jamie Pedersen is adorable. Pocket gay.

I just saw the names of his kids. Yikes.

[Ogre Mage]

Seeing how Rasmussen typically tends to inflate a candidate's numbers after they win the primary (See Rand Paul, Joe Sestak, Sharron Angle, Linda McMahon, Elaine Marshall, Lee Fisher, etc.), their new poll can't be good news for Rossi. If he's down by 4 points with a post-primary boost, I don't see how he's going to reverse that by election day.

Rossi is not going to win this race unless Murray makes significant mistakes in the general election.  He is in a precarious position.  To co-opt Clint Didier's support, he will have to move right, yet this will alienate him from the centrist voters he needs in areas like Bellevue/Redmond/Mercer Island.  If Didier's supporters sit out, he is done.  If centrist voters go to Murray (who has no comparable challenger pulling her to the far left) he is done. The perception of Rossi as shifty has already sunk into statewide consciousness after two failed runs for governor.  People will sense if he is dog whistling to the Tea Party.

http://www.publicola.net/2010/08/20/didier-wont-endorse-rossi-unless-rossi-meets-three-demands/

Furthermore, Murray has co-opted a large portion of Rossi's true base -- business -- through her appropriations work.  I suspect industries in Washington state do not much appreciate his railing against earmarks.

To win, Rossi will need to run up big wins in Clark and Spokane Counties (a margin of around 10%), pull off at least a narrow win in Pierce and hope turnout in King County is poor since he is going to get pounded there.  I don't see all this happening.

[Torie]

Are you gonna claim credit for Laurie coming out on top Ben?  Come on, be a man and just do it!  You know you're that good right?  

Of course you guys did F up in one way. A few of you should have voted  for the Pubbie so that he came in second. That way, the general election would be in the bag, since it appears the district is not a Pubbie friendly zone. But alas, it isn't in the bag with another Dem still alive and kicking, so now you need to do it all over again to put the Fey guy away. Do I have this right?

[Lunar]

What is that footballer being such a twat?  Rossi's not exactly a liberal

[bgwah]

King County finally released their legislative district breakdown today.

First, the map by candidate. Lot's of primary oddness here. For any curious non-Washingtonians who may be reading, Dino Rossi was a State Senator from the 5th LD.



And now, the party map. The Democratic colors in Seattle look a bit more normal now, and lean Republican areas like the 31st LD are back to blue without splitting their vote up. Republicans are leading the 45th, and even though it is a tiny margin, it would appear to be the main anomaly on the map given what I would have expected... Although it was only 51% D in 2008, so I guess I'm misremembering. The 41st and 48th were Democrat by small-ish margins, but Rossi did very well in this area in 2004 (he won at least one of them IIRC).