Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Ogre Mage]

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http://www.publicola.net/2010/07/26/murray-wins-cops-endorsement-maybe-those-earmarks-arent-such-a-bad-thing-after-all/


Rossi lied that Murray is third biggest earmarker in the Senate:

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http://www.publicola.net/2010/06/02/rossi-makes-issue-out-of-murrays-earmarks/

A database of congressional earmarks can be found here --
http://www.opensecrets.org/earmarks/index.php

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Running against earmarks in a state that depends heavily on federal money (hello, Boeing) seems like a bad idea to me.

[Ogre Mage]

Running against earmarks in a state that depends heavily on federal money (hello, Boeing) seems like a bad idea to me.

It strikes me as a strange attack as well and questionable at best in a general election.  It is not difficult for her to flip such an attack around and turn it into a strength, which is exactly what she has done in the below ad in which real Boeing workers praise Sen. Murray for saving their jobs:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/07/murray-boeing-senate-washingto.html

[frihetsivrare]

State House

I will do the 39th, 40th and 42nd districts, as they are the districts in the area where I live.

39th (most of Skagit, east Whatcom, east Snohomish Counties) : solid Republican in both positions, not worth explaining in detail

40th (south Bellingham, north and west Skagit County, San Juan County)  Position 1: Representative Dave Quall, a Democrat, is retiring this year.  There are 8 candidates running to replace him.  The probable Republican to advance past the primary is Mike Newman.  The Democrats are Tom Pasma and Justin van Dyk.  Doug Revelle is running under the Happiness Party label.  lean Republican
Position 2: Incumbent Jeff Morris will probably face Republican John Swapp in the general election.  Green Party member Howard Pellett is also running in the primary.  Tossup

42nd (Whatcom County not covered by the 40th and 39th)  Position 1: Incumbent representative Doug Eriksen is retiring to run for the Senate.  The Democrats in the primary are Al Jensen and Whatcom County businessman Richard May.  The Republicans are Jason Overstreet and Michael Smith, teacher at the high school I attended.  Farmer Craig Mayberry is running as an Independent.  Tossup
Position 2: Republican Vincent Buys is challenging incumbent Democrat Kelli Linville.  lean Democrat

[Meeker]

The Seattle Times endorsement in WA-03 may actually be a little more important than initially thought - the Chronicle, which is the biggest newspaper in Lewis County, published it today. The Longview Daily News also endorsed Heck and Castillo today which means that apart from the Olympian - which hasn't endorsed in the race yet - every major newspaper has gone for Castillo and all but the Columbian have gone for Heck. The most important take away from all this is that the chances of a Castillo upset are looking better.

[Alcon]

Meeker -- Could you elaborate on the Castillo vs. Herrera dynamic for the uninitiated?

[Meeker]

There are several dimensions to it. The first is regional - Herrera is from Ridgefield and now Camas and is going to dominate Clark and probably Cowlitz as well. Castillo was raised in Centralia and now lives in Olympia. He should beat her in both Lewis and Thurston. Herrera does have a reasonable presence in Lewis but Castillo is definitely in control there (DeBolt and Castillo are old friends and almost all of the Republican establishment in the area is behind Castillo). Herrera has no presence in Thurston at all. She doesn't even have signs up. Most of the voters I talk to think Castillo is the only Republican in the race. Pacific and Wahkiakum are also in the district but I've got no idea how they'll vote (and it doesn't really matter due to their size).

The second is ideological. Castillo is a proud conservative who doesn't mince words about it but he isn't quite to the crazy nutcase level we've seen out of some of the Tea Party candidates this year (there's a third Republican in the race who fits that bill - more on him later). Herrera is trying to portray herself as a bipartisan, independent-minded type while simultaneously sticking to standard Republican policy positions. She speaks like a College Republican - nothing but bland talking points that don't really say anything unique. I definitely wouldn't describe her as a moderate in terms of ideology but she doesn't talk like a rabid conservative. Her rhetoric is a lot like Rossi or Gorton.

The third is personality. Castillo is energetic, personable, friendly and engaging. He has a lot of original ideas that, while a little nutty in my opinion, are nonetheless actual policy proposals. He really seems to know what he's talking about and, yes, he really does seem to care about the issues. His heart's in the right place. With Herrera, as cruel as it sounds, she's just not that smart - and nowhere near Castillo's level. As I mentioned before, she has no unique policy solutions and just talks in standard rhetoric. It's safe and is similar to past Washington Republicans who have done well so I don't necessarily think it's a bad strategy. However, if I were a Republican in that district I have no idea why I would vote for Herrera and not Castillo. He's smart, articulate, passionate and just an all around better candidate in a lot of ways.

I should also mention that David Hedrick, who became famous for being on the town hall screamers at a Brian Baird event last summer, is running to the right of both of these candidates. He proudly proclaims in his voters' pamphlet statement that he's "from the Tea Party". I can't figure out how well he'll do. His supporters are certainly the most enthusiastic, especially with online commenting, but I just don't know how well that'll translate into votes. On the one hand you'd think he might steal from Castillo's right but on the other he's from the southern part of the district so he might eat away at Herrera's totals down there.

All in all the regional dynamic is probably the one we're going to end up seeing most on primary day. The ideological dynamic may come in to play but I don't know how closely Republicans are following the race to know the difference between the two in that sense. And the personality dynamic would only be noticed if you'd spent extensive time observing or interviewing the candidates - such as with newspaper editorial boards which is why they're all endorsing Castillo.

My current county-by-county prediction has Herrera coming in a few points ahead of Castillo but by a much closer margin than I think people would expect. The wildcards here are 1) the Castillo margins in Thurston/Lewis and the Herrera margin in Clark and 2) how well Hedrick does. With no polling in the race there's no way to tell any of that until election day.

[Meeker]

It may also be worth mentioning that Herrera has started running some cable spots.

[Alcon]

Thanks Meeker -- that makes a lot of sense.

Voters' pamphlet came out today, and I hadn't had a chance to look at the online one.  On the U.S. Senate side, Mike Latimer is a crazy motherf@#ker.  Mike the Mover's ballot statement talks about boobs.  Clint Didier's ballsily puts down farm subsidies (man I don't like him!).  Schalk Leonard's talks unironically about wiping away Lady Liberty's tears.  Will Baker's contains the sentence "Martin Luther King Jr. was a black man and a very good public speaker" and alludes to the poorly-received 2001 Robert Redford drama The Last Castle.  Over in the 8th Congressional District, Robin Adair's ballot statement repeatedly refers to Google as "Goggle."

This is why everyone should vote!

[bgwah]

So there's a 23 year old with a serious shot in the 34th district... Hmph.

[bgwah]

I got my ballot today.

So far:

Senate: Murray (D)
5th LD Rep 1: Hoover (D)
5th LD Rep 2: Willard (D)
Supreme Court #1: Rumbaugh
Supreme Court #6: Wiggins

Not sure about the 8th CD. Reichert and DelBene will win, obviously, so I think I might vote for Cramer (D) just for fun. He seems like a generic leftist protest vote.

[Mercenary]

I got mine on friday. I need to research the judges since I know nothing about them.
Its always annoying since it seems good information is hard to find on how they would rule on things, or I just suck at finding it.

[Meeker]

http://johnsonsinjustice.com/

I kind of have a man crush on Stan Rumbaugh.

[Mercenary]

Well that helped me make my decision on one race.

[Mercenary]

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Sounds like me.

Johnson and Sanders it is.

[Meeker]

Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.

[bgwah]

Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.

I like the Stranger 'n' all, but I doubt that's a good sign if he wants to win.

[Meeker]

Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.

I like the Stranger 'n' all, but I doubt that's a good sign if he wants to win.

Sadly yes. But he's putting up a good fight that progressives and liberals should be proud of.

[bgwah]

Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.

I like the Stranger 'n' all, but I doubt that's a good sign if he wants to win.

Sadly yes. But he's putting up a good fight that progressives and liberals should be proud of.

It has always seemed strange to me that we allow so many Supreme Court races to be decided in the primary. The Republicans--with Didier vs. Rossi and Herrera vs. Castillo--are sure to have their turnout boosted by their competitive primaries. Oh well.

[Meeker]

Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.

I like the Stranger 'n' all, but I doubt that's a good sign if he wants to win.

Sadly yes. But he's putting up a good fight that progressives and liberals should be proud of.

It has always seemed strange to me that we allow so many Supreme Court races to be decided in the primary. The Republicans--with Didier vs. Rossi and Herrera vs. Castillo--are sure to have their turnout boosted by their competitive primaries. Oh well.

Yeah, the judicial election laws are pretty awful. They've been put together through a series of compromises over the year and the current messed up system is the combined result of all those deals.

[Meeker]

The Seattle Times has surprised everyone by endorsing Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene (D) and Expedia senior manager Tim Dillon (R) in the 8th District. I'm curious 1) why they did it a full week after ballots were mailed and 2) whether this mean they'll endorse DelBene in the general over Reichert.

[bgwah]

The Seattle Times has surprised everyone by endorsing Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene (D) and Expedia senior manager Tim Dillon (R) in the 8th District. I'm curious 1) why they did it a full week after ballots were mailed and 2) whether this mean they'll endorse DelBene in the general over Reichert.

Whoa. Who could forget their front page slam piece against Burner in October 2008? I'm very surprised. DelBene has been raising quite a bit of money under the radar. It would be a huge upset if she won.

[bgwah]

Though really, Reichert is gonna win anyway. We can't forget the the Times strategically endorses Democrats when it doesn't matter to make themselves look moderate.

[Torie]

Here is a story about that crap poll for WA-3 and stuff. Enjoy.

[bgwah]

Here is a story about that crap poll for WA-3 and stuff. Enjoy.

As if we need an article to know that a poll which says Seattle is more Republican than Eastern Washington is garbage.