Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

27th District State House candidate Laurie Jinkins is trying to commit ELECTORAL FRAUD. Her campaign is trying to STEAL THIS ELECTION.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/06/30/an-endorsement-is-retracted/#comments

[Meeker]

Finally a real top-two primary poll. SurveyUSA:

Murray (D): 37%
Rossi (R): 33%
Didier (R): 5%
Akers (R): 3%
Burr (D): 1%
Goodspaceguy (D): 1%
Said (Centrist): 1%
All others: 0%
Undecided: 19%

So far no Didier-mentum

[RI]

Are you going to do the rest of the house seats, Meeker? I'd like to see some of the upcoming districts.

[CultureKing]

Finally a real top-two primary poll. SurveyUSA:

Murray (D): 37%
Rossi (R): 33%
Didier (R): 5%
Akers (R): 3%
Burr (D): 1%
Goodspaceguy (D): 1%
Said (Centrist): 1%
All others: 0%
Undecided: 19%

So far no Didier-mentum

Weird, I though Didier's strength was much stronger than that. Then again often the most vocal movements are those that find the least traction.

[Meeker]

Are you going to do the rest of the house seats, Meeker? I'd like to see some of the upcoming districts.

Yeah, I got distracted with work and have been on vacation for the past few days. I may finish it tonight.

[bgwah]

Latest Member: Jaime Herrera Watch

lol wut?

[Meeker]

Latest Member: Jaime Herrera Watch

lol wut?

http://jaimeherrerawatch.blogspot.com/

I guess they're watching to see if we post something they have mentioned yet?

[Alcon]

Dear Mr. Jamie Herrera Watch,

Your blog makes you seem completely out of your mind crazy.  Welcome to the Atlas!!!

Love,
The Atlas

[Хahar 🤔]

What kind of female name is Jaime?

[Alcon]

What kind of female name is Jaime?

It's a more common name for females than for males.

[Torie]

What kind of female name is Jaime?

It's a more common name for females than for males.

Unless of course you are Hispanic. My best friend in business school was from Mexico City. His name was Jaime. Jaime by the way is now very rich, very rich, running some business empire for one of the richest Mexicans in Mexico. We used to study together. He did the heavy math; I did the heavy writing, and together, we just aced everything. 

[Lunar]

Unless of course you are Hispanic.

I've met Latino men named Jaime too.

I don't know anything about Jaime Herrera, but what if her parents gave her the anglicized "Jaime" [Jahy-mee] as her name?  

A glance a her website shows that she pronounces it Jamie instead of "High-ma" or whatevsky

[Torie]

My Mexican friend pronounced it high-may.

[Lunar]

My Mexican friend pronounced it high-may.

Yeah perhaps "high-may" would have been better than "high-me"

There's a Latino doorman at my office's building who's name is pronounced with the hard J (Jay-mee), I wonder if his real name is High-may?  I'm not very good at a Spanish accent, but as someone who worked for four years checking residents ID cards, I really prefer to call people by their preferred name rather than the name they tell white people to simplify things.  Oh well.

[Meeker]

Something totally random: Not a single Republican filed for any of the county offices in Pacific County. What a great place.

http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/pacific/elections/Pages/CandidateFilings.aspx

[MaxQue]

Something totally random: Not a single Republican filed for any of the county offices in Pacific County. What a great place.

http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/pacific/elections/Pages/CandidateFilings.aspx

Well, you can't declare wars like Republicans do, if you are Pacific....

[Хahar 🤔]

What kind of female name is Jaime?

It's a more common name for females than for males.

That's Jamie, not Jaime.

http://www.placesnamed.com/j/a/jaime.asp

[Alcon]

What kind of female name is Jaime?

It's a more common name for females than for males.

That's Jamie, not Jaime.

http://www.placesnamed.com/j/a/jaime.asp

Oops, true (how long have I been mis-spelling her name?), but still only 2/3 of Jaimes are guys.  It's no Dana, let alone a Courtney.

I voter-canvassed a female Clarence the other day.  Now that has no business being a unisex name.

[Meeker]

A group named "Washington State Political Polls" has published "polls" on all the federal races in the state. They conduct these "polls" by mailing out about 10,000 response requests and then they tabulate the results based off the 1,000 or so that they get back (people are directed to a website where they fill out the survey with their unique login code). Due to the methodology one shouldn't put too much stock into these but I've seen them floating around and news outlets might be silly enough to publish them:

Senate
Murray (D): 33%
Didier (R): 17%
Rossi (R): 16%
Akers (R): 7%
All others: <1%
Undecided: 24%

2nd District
John Koster (R): 28%
Rick Larsen (D): 18%
John Carmack (R): 13%
Larry Kalb (D): 7%
Diana McGinness (D): 6%
Undecided: 29%

3rd District
Denny Heck (D): 30%
Jaime Herrera (R): 18%
David Hedrick (R): 17%
David Castillo (R): 9%
Cheryl Crist (D): 4%
Norma Jean Stevens (I): 1%
Undecided: 21%

8th District
Dave Reichert (R): 26%
Tom Cramer (D): 15%
Suzan DelBene (D): 13%
Tim Dillon (R): 4%
All others: <1%
Undecided: 37%

9th District
Adam Smith (D): 30%
Dick Muri (R): 28%
James Postma (R): 7%
Roy Olson (G, though they say he's an I): 1%
Undecided: 34%

They polled the other districts too if you want to have a look (and some laughs): http://washingtonstatepolls.com

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The WA-07 poll is especially hilarious. Apparently Republicans are on par with Democrats there now, and despite the fact that no Republican filed, McDermott is only at 24%.

[Meeker]

Rep. Geoff Simpson (D-Covington) has been charged with assault again in a new domestic violence incident involving his ex-wife. The charges look kind of weak like the ones in 2008 but I don't think it's going to matter. Stick a fork in Simpson.

[Meeker]

Herrera has an ad up. In a shocking twist she says nothing of substance at all.

http://www.jaimeherrera.com/videos.html

[Meeker]

Fundraising in WA-03

Heck: $280k raised + $100k of his own, $800k+ CoH
Herrera: $180k raised, $200k CoH
Castillo: $75k raised, unknown CoH

DelBene raised $378k and has a little more than $1 million CoH. No word on Reichert as far as I've heard.

The Senate numbers are all over the news if one is curious about those.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Fundraising in WA-03

Heck: $280k raised + $100k of his own, $800k+ CoH
Herrera: $180k raised, $200k CoH
Castillo: $75k raised, unknown CoH

DelBene raised $378k and has a little more than $1 million CoH. No word on Reichert as far as I've heard.

The Senate numbers are all over the news if one is curious about those.

How in the heck (pun very intended) is Herrera supposed to have a chance against Heck in November? He's outraised her like 3-1 so far.

[Meeker]

Fundraising in WA-03

Heck: $280k raised + $100k of his own, $800k+ CoH
Herrera: $180k raised, $200k CoH
Castillo: $75k raised, unknown CoH

DelBene raised $378k and has a little more than $1 million CoH. No word on Reichert as far as I've heard.

The Senate numbers are all over the news if one is curious about those.

How in the heck (pun very intended) is Herrera supposed to have a chance against Heck in November? He's outraised her like 3-1 so far.

I suspect outside groups will pick up some of the slack. But Heck will get some outside help too so she'll still be at a net disadvantage on TV.

Heck's definitely beating Herrera right now in terms of what's going on in the district and I suspect that will continue through to November. If Herrera wins this it's going to be because of the national climate.