Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

Interesting article.  That kind of reminds me of something I've been meaning to ask:  Who the hell is Jaime Herrera?  I know that she was appointed in 2007, but as far as I can tell she just appeared.  She seems young, conservative and photogenic.  Clark County is also not a bad part of the state to be from, politically.  Does she have any future potential?

All I know about her beyond that is that I once saw her throw some papers on TVW, and was told she was out of order.  It was awkward and staged, but pretty funny

She was an intern in the State House a few years ago (2004ish I think) and then was a low-level staff for McMorris Rodgers for a little while. When Curtis resigned over the prostitution scandal the local GOP thought she'd be a good pick for some reason. Bit of an odd decision and one that I suspect pissed off some old dogs down there, but nonetheless a smart decision.

In terms of her long-term viability (and referring back to that article), Zarelli and Orcutt actually agree with and support the type of people that showed up at that event. Herrera just humors those types. With the right fundraising she could be a good candidate on a larger scale (WA-03...)

Heh.

[bgwah]

Interesting article.  That kind of reminds me of something I've been meaning to ask:  Who the hell is Jaime Herrera?  I know that she was appointed in 2007, but as far as I can tell she just appeared.  She seems young, conservative and photogenic.  Clark County is also not a bad part of the state to be from, politically.  Does she have any future potential?

All I know about her beyond that is that I once saw her throw some papers on TVW, and was told she was out of order.  It was awkward and staged, but pretty funny

She was an intern in the State House a few years ago (2004ish I think) and then was a low-level staff for McMorris Rodgers for a little while. When Curtis resigned over the prostitution scandal the local GOP thought she'd be a good pick for some reason. Bit of an odd decision and one that I suspect pissed off some old dogs down there, but nonetheless a smart decision.

In terms of her long-term viability (and referring back to that article), Zarelli and Orcutt actually agree with and support the type of people that showed up at that event. Herrera just humors those types. With the right fundraising she could be a good candidate on a larger scale (WA-03...)

Heh.

Is she gonna beat Castillo? I want some primary polls. Castillo vs. Herrera and Didier vs. Rossi!

[bgwah]

This thread is boring. Anyone wanna do legislature predictions? I'll start with the Senate... *Indicates a pick-up.

6th: Chris Marr is a good fit for the district, and he won by almost 10% in 2006, but when I try to think of areas where the GOP will improve, suburban Spokane has to be one of the first places that pop into my mind. His opponent doesn't seem like a moron, either. I think this is a toss-up seat, but I have to guess, so I'll say the Republicans will pick it up. Toss-up*

7th: Safe Republican hold, no explanation necessary. Kind of surprised the Democrats even have a candidate here. Safe Republican.

8th: No Democrat running--this will be a R vs. R race.   Safe Republican.

13th: Unopposed Republican.   Safe Republican.

15th: Unopposed Republican. It is worth noting that this district probably won't exist in any recognizable form in 2012--Eastern Washington hasn't been growing enough to keep its half of the district. The 18th in Clark County has grown the most of any district in the entire state, and will need to shrink drastically. This district will likely shift almost completely into a suburban Vancouver district, eating up the 18th's left overs. But for this year...   Safe Republican.

21st: Shinn will have a Republican challenger this year, which he didn't in 2006. He won 62-38 in 2002. The district voted Obama almost 2-to-1. Safe Democrat.

26th: Kilmer won 60-40 in 2006, but only 51-47 Obama. Likley Democrat.

29th: State Representative Steve Conway running for open Senate seat. 64-34 Obama. Safe Democrat.

30th: Eide won 60-40 in 2006 and Obama won the district 59-39.   Safe Democrat.

31st: Pam Roach, lolz. Only a 50-48 Obama district. Despite her crazy antics, she managed to win 53-47 in the massive 2006 Democratic landslide. Her district seems to love her. Still, it's hard for me to ignore her recent issues with the GOP... Likely Republican.

32nd: Open Democratic seat. The Democrat won 68-32 in 2006 and the district voted 70-29 Obama.   Safe Democrat.

33rd: Keiser won 62-38 in 2006, and the district voted 64-35 Obama.   Safe Democrat.

34th: Unopposed Democrat in a Seattle/Vashon district.   Safe Democrat.

35th: Ugh, Sheldon. He always manages to win. And he's running against someone named Nancy "Grandma" Williams.   Safe "Democrat."

36th: Seattle--enough said.   Safe Democrat.

37th: Seattle. No Republican running--this will be a D vs. I race.   Safe Democrat.

38th: Berkey was unopposed in 2006. Her predecessor (Aaron Reardon) easily won in 2002, and Berkey is running against someone who prefers the "Conservative Party" (lol). 61-36 Obama district.   Safe Democrat.

41st:  One of the seemingly few interesting races here. Fred Jarrett left for a position in the King County government, and Randy Gordon was recently appointed to replace him. This is a special election, as the seat wouldn't normally be up until 2012. The Republican opponent, Litzow, got 49% in 2008 for an open representative seat. An impressive performance considering it was 2008. The district voted 64-35 Obama. This one strikes me as a toss-up, but given Litzow's strong 2008 performance, what should be a decent year for Republicans, and the fact that he's running against an appointee, I can see the Republicans picking this one up.   Toss-up*

42nd: Open Republican seat. Representative Doug Ericksen is running. A 54-44 Obama district, but this is definitely an area that should a swing to the Republicans. They also have a better candidate.   Likely Republican.

43rd: Unopposed Democrat in Seattle. Safe Democrat.

44th: Hobbes running for re-election. Only won 52-48 in 2006 against Dave Schmidt, who I imagine will be the Republican candidate again (he is one of two Republicans running). A 56-42 Obama district. Hobbes is supposedly a moderate and has a serious primary challenge from another Democrat. A toss-up that, if I must guess, will be a Republican pick-up. Toss-up*

45th: Incumbent Democrat Oemig is running with a Republican challenge from Andy Hill. Oemig won 54-46 in 2006, and the district voted 61-38 Obama. This one will be close, but for now I think Oemig will barely cling on.   Toss-up

46th: Unopposed Democrat in Seattle. Safe Democrat.

47th: Incumbent Democrat Kauffman is running; she won 52-48 in 2006. A 56-43 Obama district. Will definitely be a top Republican target. Fain is the likely Republican challenger and I see him winning. Lean Republican*

48th: Turncoat Tom! He won 54-46 in 2006. I think he'll hang on. Lean Democrat

So I'm predicting four Republican pick-ups. These seats were 17-6 D in 2006. Throwing in the special election in the 41st, I'm predicting 14-10 D this year. Not up are 13 Ds and 12 Rs, leaving the Senate with a 27-22 Democratic majority.

[Meeker]

I've been meaning to do this but haven't had the time. I'll do the State House tomorrow/comment on your Senate ones.

[bgwah]

We're waiting, Meeker!

Looking over my predictions, I was probably a bit liberal with my use of "safe" and would bump a few down to likely, but meh.

[Lunar]

http://smeall.org/

Watch the video NOW

Wait, who is this woman, and does she suffer some sort of mental retardation?  I feel like I should refrain from commenting until I know the backstory. 

[Meeker]

http://smeall.org/

Watch the video NOW

Wait, who is this woman, and does she suffer some sort of mental retardation?  I feel like I should refrain from commenting until I know the backstory. 

Nope, feel free to mock.

And I will do State House tonight for realz.

[Meeker]

State House

1st District: Both seats in this district are open after the retirements of Al O'Brien and Mark Ericks. Position 1 is a fight on the Democratic side between Derek Stanford, a telecommunications administrator, and Vince DeMiero, a high school journalism teacher. There are three Republicans running but only one, Boeing electrical engineer Dennis Richter, has raised any money (and he's raised less than $1.5k). Stanford has the edge over DeMiero in fundraising (25k vs. 9k) and endorsements. There's a very small chance there could be a D vs D race if the vote splits just right. Likely Democrat.

Position 2 has two Democrats running as well but here only one, organized labor lobbyist Louis Moscoso, is legitimate. The sole Republican is a small business owner named Heidi Munson who's raised about 5k and hails from the Tea Party side of things. As with Position 1 the Republicans could've made this into a race with a better candidate. Likely Democrat.

2nd District: Position 1 is a race between incumbent Republican Jim McCune and former Democratic legislator Marilyn Rasmussen, last seen inexplicably losing re-election to her State Senate seat in 2008. Rasmussen is a 2nd District institution having first been elected in the 1980's, but it looks like voters here have grown tired of her (and recent population growth has brought in a lot of new voters who don't know of Rasmussen's long history here). She's also not very good at campaigning. McCune's not in any real danger. Likely Republican.

Position 2 is a fascinating R vs. R contest. Sort of moderate and former Democrat Tom Campbell was briefly running for Congress and while that was happening J.T. Wilcox of the Wilcox dairy farm empire declared his intention to run for the vacant seat. Campbell eventually decided he'd prefer to run for re-election but Wilcox refused to bow out. Both have raised significant amounts of money (Campbell 75k and Wilcox 84k) and this race is getting nasty. It's tough to say what'll happen but I'd probably give Campbell an edge. Safe Republican.

3rd District: Position 1 is an open seat due to the retirement of Alex Wood. Democrat Andy Billig, owner of the minor league Spokane Indians baseball team, will win big over minor opposition from two other Democrats and a Republican. Safe Democrat.

Timm Ormsby will be easily re-elected for Position 2. Safe Democrat.

4th District: Incumbents Larry Crouse and Matt Shea are both unopposed in this very Republican district. Safe Republican and Safe Republican.

5th District: Position 1 pits incumbent Republican Jay Rodne against attorney/real estate broker Gregory Scott. Rodne's fundraising thus far is laughable for an incumbent at only 14k. Rodne's well liked though and given the current political climate he'll probably survive. Likely Republican.

Meanwhile for Position 2, Republican Glenn Anderson barely survived re-election in 2008. Former T-Mobile executive Dean Willard is mounting a strong challenge and has almost doubled Anderson's fundraising totals. 2008 nominee David Spring is also running on the Democratic side. Willard should make it to the general and make this a fairly competitive race. Lean Republican.

6th District: Democrats failed to find a challenger to freshman Republican Kevin Parker for Position 1. It's probably just as well though as Parker's raised a mind-boggling 125k already. Watch for this guy in the future; he's a rising star in the party. Safe Republican.

Freshman Democrat John Driscoll is facing a challenge from the man he beat in 2008 for Position 2, former state representative John Ahern. Before Ahern can take on Driscoll though he'll need to beat non-profit executive Shelly O'Quinn. That won't be easy as O'Quinn has raised twice as much money and is in general a better candidate. I'm not really sure who will make it out of that fight, but this is going to be one of the key battlegrounds for control of the State House no matter which one wins. Toss-up*.

7th District: Incumbent Republicans Shelly Short and Joel Kretz are both unopposed. Safe Republican and Safe Republican.

8th District: Position 1 is a rematch from 2008 between freshman Republican Brad Klippert and former Richland city councilwoman Carol Moser. Klippert is a weird dude and his fundraising sucks but I don't see how Moser can beat him this time if she couldn't two years ago. Safe Republican.

Larry Haler is unopposed for Position 2. Safe Republican.

9th District: Susan Fagan, first elected in a 2009 special election, is unopposed for Position 1. Safe Republican.

Joe Schmick faces minor opposition from crazy dude Glen Stockwell who filed as a Republican but ran as a Democrat in the aforementioned 2009 special election. Schmick will win easily. Safe Republican.

10th District: In another recruitment failure for the Democrats, incumbent Republican Norma Smith is unopposed for Position 1 in this Obama-voting district. Safe Republican.

In Position 2 Republican Barbara Bailey faces a challenge from one Democrat, state park ranger Tom Riggs. Riggs seems like a cool guy but he doesn't look like a strong enough candidate for a district like this in a year like this. Bailey's also raised a lot of money (57k) and Riggs has raised none. Safe Republican.

[Meeker]

11th District: Incumbent Democrats Zach Hudgins and Bob Hasegawa both face minor challengers of various party affiliations. Safe Democrat and Safe Democrat.

12th District: Cary Condotta, a Ron Paul fan before it was cool, is unopposed for Position 1. Safe Republican.

No Democrats filed for Position 2. Republican Mike Armstrong fared surprisingly poorly against an intra-party challenger in 2008. He's got another one this year in Stehekin small business owner Cliff Courtney. This may be an interesting gauge of support between establishment Republicans (Armstrong) and Tea Party types (Courtney). I'll give Armstrong the edge for now but given his 2008 performance he may be in real danger. Safe Republican.

13th District: Republican incumbent Judy Warnick is unopposed for Position 1 while Bill Hinkle faces an amusing but non-threatening challenge for Position 2 from Anthony (El Tigrero) Novack of the Bull Moose Party. Safe Republican and Safe Republican.

14th District: For Position 1 freshman Republican Norm Johnson is facing a very viable challenge from another Republican in Michele Strobel, the Director of the Selah Chamber of Commerce. Not quite sure what Johnson has done to deserve such a challenge but this looks like another establishment vs. Tea Party situation. Attorney Scott Brumback is running as a Democrat but he's raised no money and doesn't have a website. This one may go to an R v R general. Safe Republican.

Incumbent Charles Ross is unopposed for Position 2. Safe Republican.

15th District: Bruce Chandler will easily beat Democrat Paul Spencer, an engineer, in the Position 1 race. Safe Republican.

David Taylor, appointed in 2009 to fill a vacancy in Position 2, has somehow managed to raise less than $2000. Taylor is also dumb as rocks and this district voted for Obama. Despite all that I still don't see how Taylor loses to his only opponent, 15th LD Democratic Chair Tom Silva. Safe Republican.

16th District: Position 1 features a curious race between incumbent Republican Maureen Walsh and Constitution Party challenger Brenda High. A Google search of Brenda High yields some interesting results but I'm not sure if it's the same woman or not. Safe Republican.

Terry Nealey is running unopposed for Position 2. A big change from his 2008 loss to Bill Grant and his hard-fought victory over Laura Grant in 2009. Safe Republican.

17th District: Incumbent Democrat Tim Probst is facing Republican small business owner Brian Peck in the race for Position 1. Probst's fundraising has been good but Peck's hasn't been shabby either. Probst is one of the most vulnerable incumbents. This race is another top battleground. Toss-up.

Deb Wallace, after briefly running for Congress, decided not to run for re-election for Position 2. The serious Democrat in the race is middle school teacher Monica Stonier (weirdo Martin Hash is also running). Paul Harris is the only Republican running and I can't find much info about him but his fundraising is on par with Stonier's. This is going to be another very close race. Toss-up.*

18th District: Jaime Hererra is running for Congress which leaves Position 1 open. There are seven candidates in this race but I'm not going to bother listing them because political consultant Ann Rivers is going to win big. The only Democrat in the race, high school shop teacher Dennis Kampe, will face her in the general. Safe Republican.

Incumbent Republican Ed Orcutt is running unopposed for Position 2. Safe Republican.

19th District: Incumbent Democrat Dean Takko is being challenged by farm worker Kurt Swanson for Position 1. Takko won't have an issues winning. Safe Democrat.

Brian Blake, the other Democratic incumbent in the district, should have no problems defeating Tim Suntinen of the Lower Taxes Party for Position 2. Safe Democrat.

20th District: House Republican Leader Richard DeBolt is being challenged by Democratic small business owner Corinne Tobeck. DeBolt has a huge fundraising advantage and this district is solidly Republican. Safe Republican.

Incumbent Republican Gary Alexander is running unopposed for Position 2. Safe Republican.

21st District: Republican Ed Borey, a business executive, is trying to take out incumbent Democrat Mary Helen Roberts for Position 1. Borey's doing remarkably well in fundraising and Roberts not so much. This is a solidly Democratic district though and if Democrats start getting into trouble here then things are going to go very badly statewide. Safe Democratic.

Marko Liias, Democratic incumbent for Position 2, may be in for a closer than normal race as well. Educator and community activist Elizabeth Scott has posted good fundraising numbers. She may be too far to the right to make this district competitive though. A coffee shop owner is also running as a Republican as is someone from the SeniorSide Party (neither will make it out of the primary). Anyways, the seat is another one to put on the watch list. Safe Democratic.

That's all I can get through for tonight. I'll try to do the rest tomorrow.

[Meeker]

22nd District: Brendan Williams, one of the most liberal members of the State House, is retiring from Position 1. Seven candidates have filed for the seat with Democrats Stew Henderson, a businessman, and Chris Reykdal, a Tumwater school boardmember who's been endorsed by Williams, leading the field. Also running is Tumwater city councilwoman Judi Hoefling and three local Democratic activists. My guess is Henderson comes out on top in the primary but I wouldn't be surprised to see Reykdal ahead. Lacey City Councilman Jason Hearn is running on the Republican side and will draw enough voters to foil a D vs. D general election. He won't be competitive in November though. Safe Democrat.

Incumbent Democrat Sam Hunt has a marijuana activist and a conservative-sounding independent running against him for Position 2. I suspect the independent will make the general off the backs of the Republicans in the district. Hunt's not in any real danger from either of them. Safe Democrat.

23rd District: For Position 1 Sherry Appleton looks to be in some trouble from her Republican challenger Peter DeBoer, a Kingston port commissioner. They're pretty evenly matched in fundraising (24k vs. 22k) and DeBoer is a legit, non-crazy candidate. This is another seat that'll determine how bad the Democratic loses are going to be this year. Lean Democrat.

Christine Rolfes, the Democratic incumbent, has two Republican challengers for Position 2. Neither has raised any money and I can't find any information on them. Rolfes has a ton of money in the bank. Safe Democrat.

24th District: Republican Realtor Dan Gase is running against incumbent Democrat Kevin Van De Wege for Position 1. Gase has raised a little money but he doesn't seem to have a terribly serious campaign up and running, plus a Tea Party candidate named Craig Durgan is running as a package deal with another guy for Position 2 and may end up being the one making it to November. Van De Wege will probably be fine but this one should be added to the watch list. Likely Democrat.

Position 2 is open due to the retirement of House Majority Leader Lynn Kessler. Two Democrats and two Republicans have filed but none have raised more than 8k. Clallam County Commissioner Steve Tharinger has the advantage over Montesano school boardmember Jack Dwyer for the Democrats while Port Angeles Port Commissioner Jim McEntire will likely win out for the Republicans over Larry Carter, the other half of the Tea Party pair. I'd say Tharinger is slightly favored in a general against McEntire but this race isn't really developed enough to make a judgement call. Toss-up.

25th District: For Position 1 freshman Republican Bruce Dammeier won't have any problems dispatching organized labor leader John Thompson. Dammeier is a prodigious fundraiser and managed to win this Obama-voting district in 2008 over a better Democratic candidate than he has now. He'll be a future headache for Washington State Democrats. Safe Republican.

Incumbent Democrat Dawn Morrell has drawn five challengers for her Position 2 seat but only one, Republican Hans Zeiger, has raised any money - and he's raised a lot (50k). Zeiger, a non-profit executive and author, is from a prominent area family and is being touted as the next Republican wunderkind. Morrell is a darling of organized labor and won't go down without a fight. This one's going to get bloody. Toss-up.

26th District: Position 1 is a contest between freshman Republican Jan Angel and Democrat Sumner Schoenike, a physician. Both are relatively matched in fundraising right now (46k to 40k) but I'm not fully convinced Schoenike is going to make the best candidate. Angel also managed to pick this seat up in 2008. Schoenike may be able to make a race out of this but probably not. Likely Republican.

Firefighter and Navy veteran Doug Richards is going to give Democratic incumbent Larry Seaquist a run for his money for Position 2. Richards' fundraising hasn't been that great thus far but he looks like a near perfect candidate for this seat outside of that. Seaquist has also never been the best on the campaign trail. If Richards can get some money money flowing in then this will turn into a real horse race. Lean Democrat.

[bgwah]

Here is a map I made and forgot to post. I think you guys might find it interesting.

It shows the growth of legislative districts in Washington from 2000 to 2009. More specifically, red districts have grown more slowly than the state as a whole and will need to expand during the next redistricting, while those in green have grown faster and will need to shrink. The color scale shows how many people will be have to be removed from or added to the district.

The 2nd district is a whopping 28,000 over the ideal district population. However, Pierce County clearly has lots of slow growing districts to eat up that surplus. Other districts that grew by over 20,000 were the 5th (Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, Snoqualmie, Maple Valley) and the 18th (exurban Clark County).

The slowest growing district was the 3rd--inner Spokane--which is going to need to add 15,000 people to it. The 6th will also need to add about 1,000. The 4th has around 4,000 extra--not nearly enough to make up for the slack of the other two Spokane districts. It will be interesting to see how slow growth in Spokane will ripple elsewhere. Spokane losing much of its 9th district portion, and the 9th expanding into Columbia and Walla Walla counties, seems likely. Both the 3rd and 6th districts will probably get more Republican as they are forced to expand into the suburbs. The 3rd is of course solid Dem and can handle it. It could be significant in a swing district like the 6th, though.

Overall, Eastern Washington will lose approximately 1/2 of a legislative district--likely by moving the 15th fully into the Vancouver area.

Seattle is also going to lose a portion of a district, obviously. I can only speculate, but the Seattle portion of the 11th district has about the number of people Seattle will need to be cut out, so they could keep their all/mostly Seattle districts intact by moving the 11th fulling into the suburbs south of Seattle. The 48th was surprising to me--it's almost 10,000 under at the moment. Not what I would have expected from the Eastside, though when you think about it, that particular district is built out and doesn't have any high growth areas like the others. In general, we should see an eastward movement of the Puget Sound districts.

The peninsula is interesting as well... The 19th is going to have to move more towards Vancouver, with the 24th taking the 19th's northern portions. They may also have to move into Lewis County.

[Meeker]

That's very interesting bgwah; I don't really have much commentary beyond what you've said though. Could you do the same for Congressional districts?

[bgwah]

I'd just like to note that I wasn't quite right about the 15th. While it will have to move into Clark County more, Eastern Washington overall will lose more like a sixth of a district, not half. The biggest differences in Eastern Washington will be in the Tri-Cities area, though. I will be very interested to see what they do with 9th and 16th districts.

As for congressional districts, yeah those are available. I've already written about it before and don't have much new to add. The numbers, though:

2009 population
1 - 733,872
2 - 756,036
3 - 781,408
4 - 752,412
5 - 716,284
6 - 703,712
7 - 697,136
8 - 800,321
9 - 727,020

9 districts-Ideal district population (2009): 740,911
1 - 733,872 (-7,040)
2 - 756,036 (15,125)
3 - 781,408 (40,497)
4 - 752,412 (11,500)
5 - 716,284 (-24,627)
6 - 703,712 (-37,199)
7 - 697,136 (-43,775)
8 - 800,321 (59,410)
9 - 727,020 (-13,891)

WA-3 will have cut out more Olympia--probably the most Democratic part of the district. WA-8 is growing quickly, but the 7th and 9th have deficits almost equal to the 8th's surplus, so I suspect we will see an eastward expansion of those districts into the 8th's territory. We'll WA-1 expand into WA-2 territory a bit. That would probably mean going into Everett a bit, which might technically make the district a little more Republican, but the difference will probably be negligible.


10 districts-Ideal district population (2009): 666,820
  1 - 733,872 (67,051)
  2 - 756,036 (89,216)
  3 - 781,408 (114,588)
  4 - 752,412 (85,591)
  5 - 716,284 (49,464)
  6 - 703,712 (36,892)
  7 - 697,136 (30,316)
  8 - 800,321 (133,501)
  9 - 727,020 (60,200)
10 -            0 (-666,820)

WA-3 will change completely--probably into a Vancouver-Yakima district, with WA-10 being Olympia/Peninsula/Coast. That makes the race more interesting this year. Herrera really couldn't ask for a more perfect district for her. Castillo and Heck however, would find themselves in a different district if they win this year. If Heck loses in November, he will have a brand new open district to run for in 2012.

WA-8 would also change drastically, losing most of its Pierce County portion making it a lot more Democratic.


Under both scenarios are the same two notable changes. That is, WA-3 gets more Republican and WA-8 gets more Democratic.

[Torie]

I would be surprised if WA-3 does not go GOP this year, if that is the Vancouver district, in which event the Pubbie might be around a long time then.

[Frodo]

Is there any possibility you (or someone) could do the same kind of analysis for Oregon?

[bgwah]

I would be surprised if WA-3 does not go GOP this year, if that is the Vancouver district, in which event the Pubbie might be around a long time then.

It has a slight R lean, and will get more Republican in 2012, so I also expect it to go R--though I'm not sure what will happen if Castillo wins the R nomination.

A new Olympia/Coast/Peninsula congressional district will definitely be Democratic, though... And Reichert is in danger of losing the most Republican parts of his district. We'll probably see Washington go from 6-3 D to 5-4 D in November, and 7-3 D in the long term. Reichert hasn't ever had a serious challenger, and while he is becoming entrenched, redistricting + a formidable opponent certainly has the potential to end him.

I'm tempted to play around with Dave's redistricting app, unfortunately their new population estimates are totally useless. They say the 8th district has 700K instead of 800K. It really is pointless to try using it to make 2010 maps when some of the district's populations are a whole 100,000 off. WA's counties are just too big for it to work well.

Is there any possibility you (or someone) could do the same kind of analysis for Oregon?

I don't really know enough about Oregon... My gut is telling me a new seat would benefit the Republicans, though.

[Torie]

I wonder how the Portland burbs are trending these days.

[Frodo]

Also, does anyone here have any 'Patty Murray for Senate' sigs that I can use in mine? 

[Torie]

Also, does anyone here have any 'Patty Murray for Senate' sigs that I can use in mine? 

Is Murray as dumb as I think she is?  I mean I consider her the second dumbest senator in the Senate, after Bunning.

[Alcon]

I never really got the impression that she's dumb, but mostly I've only seen her speak on non-political issues.

[Torie]

I never really got the impression that she's dumb, but mostly I've only seen her speak on non-political issues.

What does she talk about? Tennis shoes? What is her favorite brand?

[Meeker]

Murray's by no means a policy wonk like Cantwell but I'm not sure where you get the idea that she's stupid, Torie.

As for WA-03... heh. I'll have a lot to say November 3rd.

[Saxwsylvania]

She looks stupid.  Of course, that's no indication of non-intelligence, but it doesn't help.

Fun fact: Strom Thurmond once groped Murray in an elevator and asked if she was married.  Apparently he didn't realize she was a senator.

[Meeker]

The Progressive Caucus at the State Democratic Convention (which is going on right now) voted to endorse some dude named Bob Burr in the Senate race as a protest over Patty Murray's failure to support publicly financed campaigns.

[bgwah]

The Progressive Caucus at the State Democratic Convention (which is going on right now) voted to endorse some dude named Bob Burr in the Senate race as a protest over Patty Murray's failure to support publicly financed campaigns.

Oh gawd, I heard him speak at a county convention recently. He is bonkers. He seemed nice, though.