Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Хahar 🤔]

I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Going out on a limb here, but the regular Gov class is probably worse.

[Alcon]

Anyways, I really hope Ref71 passes, I might try to find time to go and help them out... but I was hoping this would just pass easily.

We really need phonebanking people badly.

I'm not just saying that as campaign mantra, seriously, we need people.

[Meeker]

The News Tribune. for some unfathomable reason, has endorsed Jim Merritt for mayor of Tacoma.

[Alcon]

TNT will endorse Approve on Referendum 71 tomorrow in an endorsement that mentions gay marriage way too many times to be helpful.  Link.

The Federal Way Mirror, which I think has a fairly liberal editorial board, goes with what I imagine will be the conventional initiative endorsement split (no I-1033, approve 71)

The Bellingham City Council voted to endorse no on I-1033 and approve on Ref 71.  (An old liberal dude on the council abstained on the 71 thing for some reason)

[bgwah]

Only 29 more posts before he can join the PCP!

[Holmes]

On a more serious note, fake poster or not, it's interesting to see the opposition has now basically resorted to always saying "leave me be" or "don't call me a bigot" or whatever after they talk.

[Alcon]

On a more serious note, fake poster or not, it's interesting to see the opposition has now basically resorted to always saying "leave me be" or "don't call me a bigot" or whatever after they talk.

It is kind of amusing when people peripherally touch on underlying concepts of American political philosophy completely selectively.  There are complicated issues of the definition of liberty underlying here, but the whole "I vote the way I vote and it's none of your business" thing is kind of indefensibly hilarious.

***

MONEYS!

As people who followed this closely will know, yesterday was the last day for big-ass donations.  The culmination of the ominous Reject R-71 PAC was basically one $200k donation from Focus on the Family and its local branch, the Family Policy Institute.  Actually, no, I stand corrected:  a Mr. Dave Mortenson of Kent also donated $40.53 to the PAC.  Yes, really.  Half of that money has already been spent on radio ads.

Meanwhile, Approve R-71 did twice as well last-minute, netting big donations from the likes of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer, who actually hasn't voted since 2004 but apparently was harassed by his wife or something.  Either way, their net total was over $400,000 higher than last Friday.  Only an eighth of that was from the Microsofties, so Approve R-71 is kicking butt among small-scale donors -- not an unhappy thing going into a period where the maximum donation is under $5k.

Together, Reject R-71 groups have reported a total kitty of $260,155.46.  That means that Focus on the Family is funding over three-quarters of their campaign.  In addition, they have already spent $136,116.18, or 52% of their cumulative total.  That's all been on radio ads (the tone of which has become more moderate since Reject R-71 PAC got involved) and they probably do not have enough money for much in the way of TV.

Contrastingly, Approve R-71 groups report $1,263,512.64 in donations.  Of that, $288,267.49 has been spent.  That means that just 23% of their money has been spent so far.  That means that Approve R-71's cash-in-hand outweighs Reject R-71's by a ratio of nearly 9 to 1.

The good news for Reject R-71 is that they now have an underdog narrative.  The bad news for Reject R-71 is that they probably won't have any TV ads to say that on.  And there are few things dangerous to an initiative more than a TV vacuum.

[Meeker]

Do underdog narratives really help ballot measures in the same way they do candidates? I'd be inclined to think less so.

[ottermax]

I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Going out on a limb here, but the regular Gov class is probably worse.

yeah, way worse - there isn't a regular gov class.

[Alcon]

Do underdog narratives really help ballot measures in the same way they do candidates? I'd be inclined to think less so.

On something like Initiative 1033, I'd say so.  On Ref-71, only if they spun the "this is gay interests putting their lives before yours!" thing very ably.  I think the radio ads hint toward a campaign partially built on this (completely nonsensical) narrative.  But I imagine they'll just pay GOTV, continue the "when times are tough, we can't afford a 0.01% decrease in tax revenues...especially for them" campaign and call it a day.  I'm hardly an expert but it seems like Prop. 8 managed to play the victim/underdog card pretty decently, especially after the tasteless Mormon ad.  But I don't think Reject R-71 will get enough air time to be able to do something as complex as that.

Just to more specifically qualify what I said:  Being massively outspent and barely having enough money to run a GOTV campaign with limited ads is never good even if it gets you a narrative.

I'm just trying to think of whether Reject R-71 has any more rabbits to pull out of its hat, and I don't think they do.

[Alcon]

SUSA

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9622a0f2-7f20-4f4a-834f-4133ad3eb471

Hutchison 47%
Constantine 42%

PubliCola Poll (700 LV):

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/181928.asp?source=rss

Mallahan 36.5%
McGinn 30.1%
Undecided 33.5% (yikes)

Also: Mallahan is out of money

[Meeker]

So one poll with the crazy ahead and another poll which probably sucks. Great.

[CultureKing]

By the way Bgwah, Larry Stickney himself was the No on Ref. 71 debater we had over here at Gonzaga. Remember this is the guy who has married three times, was accused of beating his wife and refused to send his daughter to college.

Oh and by the way No on I-1033 got a ton of money last minute, with a good amount coming from Gates.

[bgwah]

Disturbing, but Hutchison is doing and saying all the right things. Of course, when she tries to get detailed she proves how she doesn't know what she's talking about (link), but the average swing voter (remember, swing voters are idiots who don't vote on issues) isn't going to realize that.

Personally, I still suspect Constantine will win, but Hutchison is doing better than I originally anticipated and I'll admit I'm worried.

For comparison, SUSA's early October poll for the 2005 race showed Sims beating Irons by 5, and in the end Sims won by 16.

By the way Bgwah, Larry Stickney himself was the No on Ref. 71 debater we had over here at Gonzaga. Remember this is the guy who has married three times, was accused of beating his wife and refused to send his daughter to college.

Haha, wow. But the hypocrisy "family values" figures is well known. For example, they say we need to "protect our children," and I'm left wondering "How many children has the average anti-gay bigot adopted?" Probably close to 0. You see, it's an abomination when an orphan is given a home with loving parents, but if they rot in some orphanage or starve on the streets? Meh, who cares! It's quite obvious that most of the "reasons" for opposing gay rights are a thin veil to cover their primitive cultist hatreds.

[Хahar 🤔]

I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Going out on a limb here, but the regular Gov class is probably worse.

yeah, way worse - there isn't a regular gov class.

Your school is weird.

[Holmes]

$1.2 million in a short amount of time for a domestic partnership referendum is pretty good... they'd better stay on good terms with their donors for the next couple of election cycles when the big same-sex marriage initiative comes up. If R-71 wins, that is, and it's looking better (to me) than last week or so.

(Also Reject R-71's numbers are telling but predictable, same thing happened in Maine where NOM, Focus on the Family and the Catholic Church were like 70% of Q3 donations for Yes on 1.)

[bgwah]

Quite frankly, if R-71 is approved, they might as well legalize gay marriage since this is becoming a gay marriage vote even if it's actually only domestic partnerships.

[Holmes]

And it'll still end up on the ballot anyway. But same-sex couples in Washington might get lucky and it'll end up on the 2010 ballot, or unlucky and it'll end up in an off-year ballot. By redefining R-71 about marriage(and losing), the opposition is basically disallowing itself to say "you, the voters of Washington, did not have a say when the activist legislators in Olympia passed the radical redefinition of marriage blah blah!" when the real same-sex marriage initiative comes to a vote.

Well, I say that, but they'll still give the whole "we're the voiceless victims righting the wrong and giving the people their say" speech, like always. Cause, you know, committee hearings and meetings with local legislators don't count as having a voice. But that's a totally different subject

[Meeker]

Constantine's out with an ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Oh1JPhHXko&feature=player_embedded

Not bad. The whole positive ad with cheery music but with negative bits spliced in thing is a little weird though.

[bgwah]

Ooh, I like the Bellevue skyline at the end there.

[bgwah]

BAM: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2010073324_e-mail_constantine_was_prepare.html

Prepare for a depressing yet amusing Palinesque one term for Susan Hutchison followed by King County permanently turning into a permanent one party state in 2013...

[Alcon]

Whoever wrote the endorsement for The Columbian (Vancouver) should be on WAFST's payroll.  It's completely brilliant; cerebral and emotional, and by the end, the average swing voter would probably think a Reject vote isn't even a viable opinion.  Nice, especially since the Portland media market will get less exposure -- something that has had surprisingly big effect on initiative results in SW Washington in the past.

http://www.columbian.com/article/20091015/OPINION02/710159941/-1/OPINION

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Nice.  (The Columbian is not a left-wing rag and endorsed Bush in '04.)

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2010079882_edit18exec.html

Could the Times possibly have more predictable endorsements?

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2010079882_edit18exec.html

Could the Times possibly have more predictable endorsements?

http://soundpolitics.com/archives/013411.html

lol

[Ogre Mage]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2010079882_edit18exec.html

Could the Times possibly have more predictable endorsements?

During the 1990s when I worked on my high school paper, we wrote better editorials than that.  I noticed they didn't say anything about her experience and qualifications compared to Constantine's, except to repeat over and over that she is an "outsider" who will bring "change."  This is just talking points and sloganeering, not analysis.  Their writing is, to put it generously, not persuasive.