Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Frodo]

Good news (of sorts) for those who care about transportation.  

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I think 36% opposition is too weak to prevent it from passing.

Guess we'll find out soon. When is the election anyway? Next week or the week after?

November 8, according to the WA SOS 2011 election calendar.  

So the week after. 

[Frodo]

Washingtonians, I have a question:

Now that Sen. Patty Murray is in her fourth term, and Sen. Maria Cantwell is in position to win her third, how do they compare with the late Sen. Warren Magnuson?

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Washingtonians, I have a question:

Now that Sen. Patty Murray is in her fourth term, and Sen. Maria Cantwell is in position to win her third, how do they compare with the late Sen. Warren Magnuson?

I wasn't around during Maggie's heyday but I've read a little about him so I'll give it a try.

Neither has reached that stature (yet) but Murray now has enough clout that she isn't far off. The Magnuson comparison makes more sense for Murray because her down-home style is reminiscent of Magnuson.  Like Magnuson Murray generally avoids the spotlight, preferring to operate under the radar.  Also, at the height of his power Magnuson chaired the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.  Murray is a senior member of that committee (the prime reason for her effectiveness at delivering federal dollars to Washington state -- she is very similar to Magnuson in this regard) and I think she has the potential to someday chair the committee too.  However, Murray does not have Magnuson's salty personal life.

Then I guess I will have to ask the question again sometime in the 2020s then.  

But thanks for the good informative answer, though.  

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But not her foreign policy?  Scoop Jackson was best known for being a hawk on national security issues.  Didn't prominent neo-conservatives used to serve on his staff, like Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz, among others?

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Now that we know what the districts look like on the congressional level, how does the legislature look?  Will it be more Democratic than with the old districts? 

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When this inevitably goes to a referendum, what is the likelihood of gay marriage being legalized in Washington state? 

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I've just sort of concluded McKenna will win and stopped worrying about it.

You've given up already?  There's still seven months...

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How is it looking at the state legislative level?  Will Democrats regain the ground they lost in 2010 in both chambers? 

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Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare. 

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Surprised this hasn't been posted yet, but Initiative 1192 -which defines marriage as being exclusively a heterosexual institution- did not have enough valid signatures to make the ballot, which leaves Referendum 74.  

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Two more initiatives are set to join the November ballot.

And here is the full list that you can expect to see when you come out and vote:

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Why is everyone here so opposed to charter schools? 

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Those Eyman numbers make me want to cry.

Those are the kinds of numbers that makes you stay up at night. 

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I'm getting increasingly confident that we're going to win all the statewide offices. Reed and McKenna were able to hold on in 2008 because they were incumbents with crappy opponents. There aren't any Republican incumbents this time around, and in order for a Republican to win statewide in an open seat race they need to get at least 40% in King County (McKenna got 46% in '04, Reed 40% in '00).

Wyman + the Constitution Party candidate got only 31% there in the primary; Dunn + the minor Republican got 38%; Watkins got 34%. Unless something pretty radical shifts, I think the increasingly partisan nature of the electorate is going to work very much in our favor.

How about the legislature?  Will Democrats be able to solidify their majorities in either chamber?

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Are there any more debates left in the governor's race?  I'm beginning to lose hope.  I sure hope you guys don't make it 32 years of Democrat governors!

If the WA GOP provides better candidates that don't hate cities and mass transit, and we might just avoid seeing a 36 or 40-year run.  Otherwise, they should prepare to follow their California counterparts into near-irrelevance.  

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It's distressing that a state as heavily Democratic as Washington is at the national level can be so evenly divided between conservatives (of both parties) and liberal Democrats at the state level:

State Senate may be beyond GOP's grasp

By Keith Ervin
Seattle Times staff reporter

For the Republican Party, control of the state Senate is tantalizingly close.

The GOP just has to pick up three seats, one a gimme, the other two currently held by Democratic incumbents who won less than half the vote in the primary.

(...)

Other observers expect reality will lie somewhere between the optimistic predictions of the two parties' leaders, with the GOP likely achieving a net gain of one seat.

Former state Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance believes a one-seat gain for Republicans would mean a Senate that Democrats couldn't easily control. "Philosophically, the Senate is going to be very conservative. It's going to be very hard for the Democrats to hold on to it."

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I think that's more of a fluff piece. I think there's a pretty slim chance of the Senate changing to R control. Also, the Democrats have a decent chance of picking up the Republican held 5th district, on Seattle's Eastside.

Does Republicans+conservative Democrats=effective Republican control of the state Senate, as Chris Vance suggests?  

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It's tough being a traitor to both sides I'd imagine:

Pressures grow for state Senate’s maverick majority leader

By Andrew Garber
Seattle Times Olympia bureau
Originally published Saturday, January 11, 2014 at 3:53 PM

OLYMPIA — Sen. Rodney Tom is a majority leader without a party.

Democrats can’t forgive him for crossing party lines last year, along with Sen. Tim Sheldon, to give the GOP control of the state Senate. The party is targeting Tom in this year’s elections.

And some Republicans, who owe Tom big time for putting them in charge, say he could be replaced with a majority leader from their own party if they pick up at least one more seat in November.

With that cloud overhead, Tom goes into another legislative session Monday as the ostensible leader of an unwieldy coalition of 24 Republicans and two Democrats — himself and Sheldon.

Their priorities include pushing through a series of laws, including changes to the state’s workers’ compensation system and state pensions.

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The carbon tax Initative 732 has gathered enough signatures, and has moved to the legislature for approval -does anyone think it has the votes to pass with Republicans in control of the Senate?

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And in related news:

Washington aims to limit carbon pollution from largest facilities

BY PHUONG LE
Associated Press
JANUARY 6, 2016 5:10 PM

SEATTLE

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Read more here: http://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/local/article53406970.html#storylink=cpy

[Frodo]

For such a Democratic state at the Presidential and congressional levels, why are Republicans so close to taking full control of the legislature? Compared to Oregon, Washington looks like a toss-up between the two parties -here's the breakdown as of August this year:

WA Senate

Democrats: 24
Republicans: 25

WA House

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 48

https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_State_Legislature

OR Senate

Democrats: 18
Republicans: 12

OR House

Democrats: 35
Republicans: 25

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_State_Legislature

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Moon losing makes me sad, even though I only really made my final decision in the race while filling out the ballot. Seems like all good news apart from that, though.

How does Durkan compare to Moon when it comes to Sound Transit?

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My take on these elections:

• By far the worst result: I-976 passing. It it likely to be overturned in the WA Supreme Court, but it will seriously hamper Sound Transit and the organization's ability to build out the transit system authorized in ST-3 if not repealed. More pressing, however, is the decimation that this will bring to Seattle's Transportation Benefit District that supplies additional funds to provide significant bus service hours in the city. Currently 70% of households in Seattle are 1/4 mile from transit that comes every 15 minutes or less. That would plummet to 40-45% without the funding. The city will be able to cover funding next year, but that's not a solution that can last much longer than that.

You might want to read this:

Sound Transit will keep collecting its car-tab taxes, despite I-976 vote

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Oh, and by the way -Tim Eyman wants to run for governor!

It isn't clear yet whether he is running as a Republican, a Libertarian, or as an independent candidate.

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Tim Eyman is making it official:

I-976 sponsor Tim Eyman officially challenges Jay Inslee for Washington state governor
Longtime initiative sponsor, Tim Eyman, officially filed his candidacy for governor with the Secretary of State's office Thursday. He is running as a Republican.

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Chris Vance: The GOP effort for the governor's office is futile

How much can Democrats expand their majorities in the legislature this year?