Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Ogre Mage]

Oh and what's the deal with the referendum on this? Will there be one? Sorry if I'm asking questions that have been answered before... I joined the thread a little late in the game.

Some legislators want a referendum clause included in the legislation.  But even if one is not included, there will almost certainly be a referendum vote on marriage later by gathering signatures for it.

[Ogre Mage]

State Supreme Court Justice Tom Chambers is retiring:

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/High-Court-Justice-Chambers-won-t-seek-third-term-2513759.php

Ladenburg and King County Superior Court Judge Bruce Hilyer are first out of the gate to announce they are running for the seat.

[Ogre Mage]

So what do our Washington posters think the overall odds on this passing look like?

My completely unscientific, subjective political sense would put the odds of marriage equality passing at 80%.

[Ogre Mage]

Patty Murray came out in support of gay marriage!

Yes!!!!  

She said she was "proud" of the marriage equality bill.  It's worth noting that there is now consensus from all of Washington State's top Democratic politicians:  Gregoire, Inslee, Cantwell and Murray all support marriage equality.

[Ogre Mage]

Horray!

[Ogre Mage]

In the AG's race, the Washington State Patrol Troopers Association endorsed Bob Ferguson over Reagan Dunn.  Publicola notes:

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http://publicola.com/2012/01/25/one-of-the-most-important-endorsements-in-this-race/


A while back I suggested that Ferguson was more likely to win because he would outwork Dunn:

On paper, Dunn looks like a great candidate -- former federal prosecutor, good name ID, politically well-connected/can raise money.  But based on the past history of the two candidates, I think that Bob Ferguson will outwork Dunn in the end.

This suggests that scenario is playing out.

[Ogre Mage]

The Gay has been signed.

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/13/10398748-wash-governor-signs-gay-marriage-bill-into-law

Three cheers for the great state of Washington!  This is a landmark moment in our state history.

[Ogre Mage]

I'm reading rumors that State Sen. Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor) is going to declare for WA-6 soon.  I think this a positive development; certainly I would vastly prefer him to Sheldon or Hargrove.

[Ogre Mage]

I agree that Inslee is running a weak campaign.  Given how long he has been prepping for this race I expected better.  His so-so effort would probably be good enough against a mediocre opponent -- but not against a top-tier candidate like McKenna.  I think McKenna comes across as the sharper, more dominant personality.  Inslee kinda seems like a bump on a log right now.

McKenna has wisely been campaigning in King County and it seems that Inslee has not done enough to introduce himself to the base there based on some polls I have seen.  He's not well known in the area (at least Metro Seattle) and cannot take it for granted just because he has a "D" next to his name.

Inslee's gotta turn out the base if he is going to win.  One plus is that Obama will be at the top of the ticket instead of the lackluster John Kerry that Gregoire had in 2004.  But I'm not sure how much impact the Presidential race will have on a downballot governor's race.

[Ogre Mage]

If the health care bill went down, it could help insofar as the Democratic base, which seems rather asleep/unaware with regards to Inslee, might be galvanized to turn out against McKenna.  But in terms of swinging moderate/independent voters I am very skeptical.

[Ogre Mage]

I don't live in the WA-01 but would feel comfortable voting for either Delbene or Ruderman.  Hobbs is too conservative for my taste, Rauniyar is a weak, inexperienced candidate.  I supported Burner in the past but have concluded she just does not have what it takes.

[Ogre Mage]

I would be surprised if Dunn won the AG race and honestly, my opinion of Owen is low so I cannot work up any concern over his losing.

The governor, WA-01, and SoS races are cause for concern, however.  I greatly fear we are going to wind up with McKenna and the chatter I continue to hear and read about Inslee's campaign is negative.

[Ogre Mage]

My votes:

Referendum 74: Yes
Initiative 502:  Yes
Initiative 1185: Hell no (beyond sick of Tim Eyman)
Initiative 1240: Undecided
Senate Joint Resolution 8221:  Undecided/don't understand
Senate Joint Resolution 8223:  Undecided/don't understand

[Ogre Mage]

It's hard to say.  The fact that Patty Murray, the most powerful member of Washington's congressional delegation, openly condemned the mailings strongly suggests that Ruderman has become a persona non grata to the WA Democratic establishment.  So is Burner, but she is a favorite of the national left.

With Burner as the darling of the national left, DelBene the anointed choice of the WA Democratic establishment and Hobbs clearly going after the "centrist" vote, I don't see room left for Ruderman in the wake of these latest allegations.  While there is no evidence (yet) that she knew what her mother was doing, she looks to me like a candidate who has become "damaged goods."

[Ogre Mage]

I'd like to know what traits would make DelBene a stronger candidate otherwise.

While I hesitate to draw too many conclusions from recent polling, the PPP poll showed DelBene doing five points better with independents than Burner in spite of lower name recognition.  Burner does better with Democrats.  The new WA-01 was specifically drawn as a swing district.  If this was a race in WA-07 I'd be for Burner.  But it isn't. 

[Ogre Mage]

So no talk about the $2.5 million money bomb lodged by Bezos?

I also noticed that both Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer gave $100,000.  It's notable that these powerful corporate heads have taken our side on this issue.

[Ogre Mage]

Burner has gone negative on DelBene:

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/08/02/darcy-burner-flip-flops-goes-furiously-negative/

Apparently this is a reversal of an earlier pledge of the Burner campaign to not go negative.  Clearly, her internal polling must be telling her that DelBene's self-funded advertising push is working.

Color me skeptical that this last minute attack will actually work.   If I had to bet, my unscientific guess would be that Suzan DelBene will advance to the general with Koster.  

[Ogre Mage]

Thank god for King county. I was getting worried about Gonzalez until results from King (75-25 in favor of Gonzalez) came in. Any reason he was so weak in the rest of the state?

Some reports and Gonzalez himself expressed concern that his Latino surname might work against him given that he has not yet been able to establish a statewide profile.  This is especially true given the lack of statewide voters pamphlet in paper format this year which might otherwise show Gonzalez's credentials. Fortunately, he was a judge in King County for a decade.  That is the one place he is well-known and the voters came through.

From The Stranger:

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http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/does-his-name-sound-too-mexican/Content?oid=14030223


Similar reporting can be found in the Seattle Times.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2018773276_supremecourt26m.html

[Ogre Mage]

lol at Michael Baumgartner, losing his home county (Spokane) to Sen. Cantwell.

[Ogre Mage]

Floyd McKay at Crosscut has a good analysis of the race in WA-1.

http://crosscut.com/2012/08/07/elections/109914/1st-district-fight-delbene-and-koster-finish/

If this were WA-4 or WA-5 we'd probably have to accept a Congresscritter as far to the right as Koster.  But in a swing district like WA-1 there's no reason to.

Fortunately, in DelBene I think we have a candidate with a good chance to win.

[Ogre Mage]

Michael Baumgartner told Josh Feit at Publicola to "go f**k yourself."  I think the state of his campaign must be getting to him.

http://publicola.com/2012/08/21/republican-us-senate-candidate-baumgartner-go--yourself/

[Ogre Mage]

Baumgartner issued an apology for the statement and then retracted the apology --

http://www.kirotv.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/wa-senate-candidate-apologizes-swearing-reporter/nRG4W/

This is bizarre, not to mention inappropriate.  I wonder what the debates will be like this fall?

[Ogre Mage]

I'm not sure if Cantwell will hit 60%, but extreme political polarization in Washington State generally ensures that 40% is the "floor" for any Democrat or Republican running for a major statewide office (governor, senator, arguably even AG).  However, Baumgartner is turning into such a joke at this point I wonder if he will fall below the floor.  I could see something like Cantwell 59% / Baumgartner 38% / Other 3%.

[Ogre Mage]

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/08/23/what-is-the-difference-between-the-lobby-of-the-washington-state-capitol-and-lieutenant-governor-brad-owens-dining-room

If you're not voting for Brad Owen, raise your hand!

In the primary, I did not.

[Ogre Mage]

Not helping McKenna:

Bob McDonnell told Republican Convention delegates from Washington State and Montana at a breakfast yesterday morning that McKenna would govern like Scott Walker has in Wisconsin.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/08/mcdonnell-ties.php#more

McDonnell appears clueless about Washington State politics.