Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

Owen will run until he dies. The interesting question mark in that race is Lisa Brown (who endorsed Jay Inslee, thus killing any rumors of a Governor run for her).

By my count there are now nine candidates running or rumored in the 1st/8th CD - State Sen. Steve Hobbs, State Reps. Marko Liias, Roger Goodman, and Ross Hunter, Former State Rep. Laura Ruderman, some guy named Darshan Rauniyar, past Reichert foes Suzan DelBene and Darcy Burner, and of course Dennis Kucinich.

Crowded field to put it mildly.

[bgwah]

Ross Hunter could very well find himself in the 1st CD, too. Sigh!

No more Darcy plz

[Seattle]

When do the proposals come out? The community input should be done or just about done by now.

[Meeker]

When do the proposals come out? The community input should be done or just about done by now.

Drafts will be released mid-September.

[Seattle]

McKenna has raised 600K in June, pretty good start, Inslee has not released his figures yet.http://www.komonews.com/news/local/124890639.html

I'm sooooooo looking forward to being bombarded by both gubernatorial, congressional, and presidential ads come 2012.....

[Meeker]

This says Inslee has raised "more than 500k". That's a good sign given that McKenna had a two week head start: http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/jul/01/mckenna-inslee-both-already-over-500k-raised/

[Meeker]

Sonntag has indicated he will not be running for Governor.

A year and a half out and we already know with certainty who the candidates will be. Yay!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What type of person could possibly vote for both McKenna and Obama?

[Napoleon]

What type of person could possibly vote for both McKenna and Obama?

Upper middle class suburban white families.

[Meeker]

What type of person could possibly vote for both McKenna and Obama?

Same sort of people who voted for Rossi and Obama.

[bgwah]

>10% of the voters in my city voted Kerry/Rossi and Obama/Rossi, so Napoleon is probably about correct.

From my experience, they're people who don't pay too much attention to politics but like to consider themselves moderate/independent, etc. They generally aren't able to give you a more than vague answer of why they vote like this. "We just need a change in Olympia (or DC)," blah blah, that kind of garbage. But Rossi is the hometown politician too so that's obviously a factor.

[redcommander]

If McKenna doesn't win can we assume that the Washington GOP is pretty much done as a competitive force for gubernatorial elections? I mean it's been 31 years since the state last elected a Republican governor. You would think that McKenna would have the clear "change" advantage going for him, and if he somehow blows it, it would be a very disappointing loss.

[Alcon]

I'm not sure I'd say "done," but Rob McKenna probably is better positioned than any Republican candidate for statewide success in an actually-partisan office.  That is, until King County Councilman Reagan Dunn, who is going to be Rob McKenna 2.0 once he wins AG -- and he's better at McKenna's niche than McKenna is.  I think Reagan Dunn will be very, very dangerous to state Dems in a few years.

[Meeker]

I don't think Dunn will win. He's lazy and Ferguson is a brainiac. The guy has written books about chess!

[Хahar 🤔]

His name is Reagan? Oh, dear.

[Ogre Mage]

I agree with Meeker.  On paper, Dunn looks like a great candidate -- former federal prosecutor, good name ID, politically well-connected/can raise money.  But based on the past history of the two candidates, I think that Bob Ferguson will outwork Dunn in the end.  I also think that Dunn's promise to support and continue McKenna's health care lawsuit will be electorally damaging in King County.  

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http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/06/14/reagan-dunn-runs-to-succeed-mckenna/


With regards to SayNo's question, one never knows what the future holds in 2016 or 2020, even if Inslee wins.  Inslee could be a bust as governor and someone we may not be thinking about could emerge.  Without question, however, it would be a terrible blow to the WA GOP if McKenna lost.

[Meeker]

Today's the day signatures for initiatives are due. Making the ballot will be:

- Tim Eyman's thing relating to highway tolls. I haven't bothered to learn the details because I already know I won't be voting for it.
- SEIU's home healthcare worker training bill which the state already passed overwhelmingly in 2008 but was never funded.
- Costco's slightly scaled back liquor privatization effort.

The Humane Society pulled the plug on their initiative relating to egg-laying hens after reaching a compromise with the egg producers yesterday. The marijuana legalization folks (not the more recent one; the Sensible Washington one) didn't collect enough signatures.

There will also be two constitutional amendments on the ballot: One that is a modification to the rainy day fund and another which clears up some redundant/conflicting language about voter eligibility for presidential elections.

[bgwah]

Today's the day signatures for initiatives are due. Making the ballot will be:

- Tim Eyman's thing relating to highway tolls. I haven't bothered to learn the details because I already know I won't be voting for it.
- SEIU's home healthcare worker training bill which the state already passed overwhelmingly in 2008 but was never funded.
- Costco's slightly scaled back liquor privatization effort.

The Humane Society pulled the plug on their initiative relating to egg-laying hens after reaching a compromise with the egg producers yesterday. The marijuana legalization folks (not the more recent one; the Sensible Washington one) didn't collect enough signatures.

There will also be two constitutional amendments on the ballot: One that is a modification to the rainy day fund and another which clears up some redundant/conflicting language about voter eligibility for presidential elections.

That's too bad, it would have been an interesting map.

[bgwah]

Do we have a 2012 summary anywhere yet? Maybe Meeker can help, he always seems to be the most knowledgeable on this sort of thing... I've included declared candidates that I know of, with possibles in italics, and just assumed the incumbent is running unless I've read otherwise (Gregoire, McKenna, and Reed):

SENATOR
Maria Cantwell (D)
Clint Didier (R)?
Susan Hutchison (R)?

GOVERNOR
Jay Inslee (D)
Rob McKenna (R)
Bill Bryant (R)?

LT. GOVERNOR
Brad Owen (D)
Lisa Brown (D)?
_________(R)?

SECRETARY OF STATE
Jim Kastama (D)
Kim Wyman (R)

ATTORNEY GENERAL
Bob Ferguson (D)
Reagan Dunn (R)

STATE AUDITOR
Brian Sonntag (D)
_________(R)?

STATE TREASURER
Jim McIntire (D)
_________(R)?

COMMISSIONER OF PUBLIC LANDS
Peter Goldmark (D)
_________(R)?

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER
Mike Kreidler (D)
_________(R)?



Really haven't heard much from the Republicans about Cantwell's seat, but I've seen Didier and Hutchison mentioned numerous times. Bryant is still pretending to consider a run for Governor, last I read.

[Meeker]

Let's see...

SENATOR
Maria Cantwell (D)
Clint Didier (R)?
Susan Hutchison (R)?

Those are the two names I've heard, though I've never heard either of them actually indicate themselves. Of the two I think Didier is far more likely to run; I'd be very surprised if Hutchison did.

I'm sure if all else fails Paul Akers is willing to be the nominee.

GOVERNOR
Jay Inslee (D)
Rob McKenna (R)
Bill Bryant (R)?

Yeah, this field is set. Bryant just wants his name talked about; he won't actually file. Sonntag and Constantine both officially took themselves out of consideration in the past week or so (not that Constantine was ever seriously looking at the race).

LT. GOVERNOR
Brad Owen (D)
Lisa Brown (D)?
_________(R)?

I haven't heard anything more about this hypothetical challenge from Brown in a while. It's actually the statewide race I'm most intrigued by. Brown winning the Lt. Governor race would set her up well to run for Governor in the future. Not sure what'll happen, though my gut leans against Brown running.

The Republican will be a nobody and a non-factor.

SECRETARY OF STATE
Jim Kastama (D)
Kim Wyman (R)

Wyman will definitely be the Republican in the general, but the Democratic field is not quite as set. Tukwilla State Representative Zack Hudgins is thinking about getting in as is former State Senator Kathleen Drew (the woman Dino Rossi beat to get into the State Senate back in 1996). I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them entered the race.

ATTORNEY GENERAL
Bob Ferguson (D)
Reagan Dunn (R)

I heard a rumor that Pierce County Prosecutor Mark Lindquist was thinking about getting in this, but if he's at all interested he better start moving fast because Ferguson has nearly all the establishment support locked up. I doubt he'll get in, and with John Ladenburg dropping out last week I think this field is set.

STATE AUDITOR
Brian Sonntag (D)
_________(R)?

Will Baker or Dick McIntee or some other random crazy will run and Sonntag will get his usual 60% of the vote.

STATE TREASURER
Jim McIntire (D)
_________(R)?

The Republicans will run a nobody; if he has some sort of financial background McIntire will get 55% or so, if not then he'll go higher.

COMMISSIONER OF PUBLIC LANDS
Peter Goldmark (D)
_________(R)?

Haven't heard anyone mentioned, but if the business community wants to run someone they'll be well enough financed to keep it competitive. The Republican's best candidate would be Doug Sutherland (even with the sexual harassment stuff still lingering), but I've got no idea if he's interested. I'd suspect not.

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER
Mike Kreidler (D)
_________(R)?

Same as Sonntag. Nothing to see here.

[bgwah]

former State Senator Kathleen Drew (the woman Dino Rossi beat to get into the State Senate back in 1996)

I prefer to think of her as the woman who beat Dino Rossi in 1992.

[Meeker]

Contradicting what I just said, here's a Seattle Times article that implies Hutchison is the most likely candidate and may still get in the race: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015562138_cantwell10m.html

Not even a mention of Didier, though that's not too surprising. I doubt his name even crosses through the minds of the King County chattering-class's self-centered bubble.

[bgwah]

But it will be harder for her to pretend to be an independent!

[Ogre Mage]

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I wonder who this unnamed group of Democrats is that Hutchison refers to?  Presumably they are the ones who will help her win.

If she runs, I will be amused watching her get 40%-42%.

I usually disagree with Chris Vance, but I thought he made a fair point here --

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[redcommander]

Is there a self funder Republicans could run against Cantwell? Maybe John Stanton would be interested?