WY-AL: Trauner (D) leads Lummis (R) by 3% in open House race

[Adlai Stevenson]

WY-AL:
44% (D) Trauner
41% (R) Lummis


WYOMING PRESIDENT:
53% (R) McCain
40% (D) Obama


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/30/22048/1202/469/525322

[Kaine for Senate '18]

How close was the race in '06?  Could we really win this seat?

[Joe Republic]

How close was the race in '06?

Trauner lost by a margin of 0.5%.

Could we really win this seat?

Could?  Yes.

[Eraserhead]

06's biggest heartbreaker.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Lummis somehow does worse than Barbara friggin' Cubin did, I will pound my head against a brick wall until the sheer pain of existance goes away.

[Flying Dog]

If Lummis somehow does worse than Barbara friggin' Cubin did, I will pound my head against a brick wall until the sheer pain of existance goes away.

I would advise against that for the sake of your well-being, but hey, it's your head.

[JSojourner]

I'm delighted Barbara "I Slap The Disabled" Cubin is not seeking re-election.  So either way, we're probably ahead of the game.  But I like Trauner and would be elated if he could pull this one off.  I think it's highly unlikely, however.

[Meeker]

Obama will help here

[JSojourner]

Obama will help here

You really think so, Meek?  I know he caucused well there but it is Wyoming, after all.  I think there might be some coattail if Governor Freudenthal were running for one of the open Senate seats.  But I am not sure Obama will do well in the general there.

Hope I'm wrong!

[Mr.Phips]

If Obama can get 40% or more here, Trauner may pull this off. 

[Meeker]

Obama will help here

You really think so, Meek?  I know he caucused well there but it is Wyoming, after all.  I think there might be some coattail if Governor Freudenthal were running for one of the open Senate seats.  But I am not sure Obama will do well in the general there.

Hope I'm wrong!

I didn't say he'll win, but he'll do better than Kerry. Congressional races West of the Mississippi will nearly universally be helped by Obama.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think there might be some coattail if Governor Freudenthal were running for one of the open Senate seats.

Speaking of slamming my head against the wall to make the pain go away...

...

...since when do downballot candidates have coattails for other downballot candidates?  Especially when a politician of the other party is romping to victory on the very top of the ticket?

[Alcon]

Does the downballot effect even exist all that strongly?  I can see certain races increasing certain levels of turnout.  But do that many people say "well, I've voted Obama, time to just D the rest"?

In fact, subconsciously, I'm probably more apt to make a concerted effort to split my ticket...

[Mr.Phips]

I think there might be some coattail if Governor Freudenthal were running for one of the open Senate seats.

Speaking of slamming my head against the wall to make the pain go away...

...

...since when do downballot candidates have coattails for other downballot candidates?  Especially when a politician of the other party is romping to victory on the very top of the ticket?

Its certainly happened before.  Strong performances by Democrats in the governors race in Indiana in both 1984 and 1988 likely saved Democrats at least one House seat in the state.  In 2004, Barack Obama likely pulled Mellissa Bean into the House with him. 

[minionofmidas]

Speaking of slamming my head against the wall to make the pain go away...

...

...since when do downballot candidates have coattails for other downballot candidates?  Especially when a politician of the other party is romping to victory on the very top of the ticket?

The downballot effect isn't usually all that large (2006 being something of an exemption), but presidential candidates certainly tend to have shorter coattails than gubernatorial and senatorial candidates.
Effect's most likely to be visible where people know the candidates least, of course. And that isn't the HOR. That's the state legislature, and local races in major counties, and statewide positions of lesser importance.

[Joe Republic]

...since when do downballot candidates have coattails for other downballot candidates?

I don't know about "since when", but New Hampshire in 2006 provided the most recent example.

[Torie]

Does the downballot effect even exist all that strongly?  I can see certain races increasing certain levels of turnout.  But do that many people say "well, I've voted Obama, time to just D the rest"?

In fact, subconsciously, I'm probably more apt to make a concerted effort to split my ticket...

The higher ballot candidate can set a mood that might have a more macro effect, or if voters want  to put his supporters in Congress (which might be more likely to happen with a non incumbent when hope is the highest for good things to come), but in general coat tails these days are pretty attenuated.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think Trauner's ceiling is about 45%. Lummis is a lame candidate but she's still better than Babs.

[Meeker]

Does the downballot effect even exist all that strongly?  I can see certain races increasing certain levels of turnout.  But do that many people say "well, I've voted Obama, time to just D the rest"?

In fact, subconsciously, I'm probably more apt to make a concerted effort to split my ticket...

You're too much of an educated Washingtonian. It's very common among low information voters, especially in Presidential years, especially in states that aren't Washington (we hate our parties too much).

[Alcon]

Does the downballot effect even exist all that strongly?  I can see certain races increasing certain levels of turnout.  But do that many people say "well, I've voted Obama, time to just D the rest"?

In fact, subconsciously, I'm probably more apt to make a concerted effort to split my ticket...

You're too much of an educated Washingtonian. It's very common among low information voters, especially in Presidential years, especially in states that aren't Washington (we hate our parties too much).

I'm hoping that explains Will Baker's ability to actually receive more than his own vote

[Meeker]

Does the downballot effect even exist all that strongly?  I can see certain races increasing certain levels of turnout.  But do that many people say "well, I've voted Obama, time to just D the rest"?

In fact, subconsciously, I'm probably more apt to make a concerted effort to split my ticket...

You're too much of an educated Washingtonian. It's very common among low information voters, especially in Presidential years, especially in states that aren't Washington (we hate our parties too much).

I'm hoping that explains Will Baker's ability to actually receive more than his own vote

That and his cool hair.

[Spaghetti Cat]

I don't think this race has gotten enough exposure for an assessment to be made.  If I remember correctly, neither has actually filed for the seat yet, and if they have it was very recently.  I'll agree with the general consensus that Obama will help Trauner here, but Lummis will pull off a win.

[Lief 🗽]

If Trauner couldn't beat Cubin, I don't see how he beats Lummis, especially in a presidential year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't think this race has gotten enough exposure for an assessment to be made.  If I remember correctly, neither has actually filed for the seat yet, and if they have it was very recently.  I'll agree with the general consensus that Obama will help Trauner here, but Lummis will pull off a win.

Filing deadline was yesterday. The Republican candidates are Lummis, a rancher named Mark Gordon (who seems to be her only serious competition -- he's loaned himself $300k), a doctor named Michael Holland, and Bill Winney, who ran against Cubin in the 06 primary. Trauner is the only Democrat who filed. There's also a Libertarian.

[HardRCafé]

Still no mention whether this is "Research 2000" or "Dude, Where's My Poll?"

Lummis has more to worry about in the primary than in the general.