|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2020, 06:23:27 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: IA: Survey USA: Obama leads McCain by 9% in Iowa  (Read 1447 times)
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 27, 2008, 01:00:03 pm »

New Poll: Iowa President by Survey USA on 2008-05-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 38%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged
Aizen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,514


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -9.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2008, 01:07:45 pm »

McCain will not be winning Iowa
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,630
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2008, 01:29:32 pm »

Not surprising.

*Waiting for a WI poll*
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,083
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2008, 01:35:54 pm »

Not surprising.

*Waiting for a WI poll*

Waiting for MI poll! We need more polls out of MI.. What is going on out there.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,744


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2008, 01:44:53 pm »

45% Democrat
28% Republican
24% Independent in this poll

In 2004 it was 36% GOP, 34% Dem, 30% Indy.

What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently?
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,392


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2008, 01:46:56 pm »

45% Democrat
28% Republican
24% Independent in this poll

In 2004 it was 36% GOP, 34% Dem, 30% Indy.

What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently?

Well Obama is only getting 69% of Dems in this one while McCain is getting 78% of Reps, so it's not benefiting him as much as it would ordinarily be. Basically, any poll that has so many undecideds is suspicious to me.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2008, 01:57:08 pm »

45% Democrat
28% Republican
24% Independent in this poll

In 2004 it was 36% GOP, 34% Dem, 30% Indy.

What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently?

SUSA doesn't weight.

There wasn't an exit poll in Iowa in 2006.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,744


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2008, 01:59:07 pm »

45% Democrat
28% Republican
24% Independent in this poll

In 2004 it was 36% GOP, 34% Dem, 30% Indy.

What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently?

SUSA doesn't weight.

There wasn't an exit poll in Iowa in 2006.

Well, in their Iowa and Ohio polls, they showed 45% and 52% of the voters to be Democrats. That seems like it's a little high, even though the GOP is hurting. IF most states have 45-50% of the electorate identifying as Democrats, then McCain has no chance.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,340


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2008, 02:20:27 pm »

Obama should win Iowa, but not by this much.

Like Tender, I'm eagerly awaiting word out of Wisconsin...since MN appears off the table for the GOP, and IA looks Lean Dem Pickup, if WI is Lean Dem Retention Obama will have a lot less defense to play in a region that was a major battleground in the last two contests.
Logged
agcatter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,742


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2008, 03:06:47 pm »

I will concede Obama is the favorite here although I doubt he wins by 9.  I could see 4 or 5 however.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,609
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2008, 05:11:18 pm »

Iowa is without a doubt lean Dem at this point. Ever since Obama won the caucus, he has been incredibly strong here.
Logged
ChrisFromNJ
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,742


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -8.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2008, 05:26:38 pm »

Lean Dem, but Obama won't win it by more than 5 points, if he wins it at all.
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,215
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2008, 01:41:05 pm »

Hasty conclusions based on a  fake poll.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2008, 01:54:10 pm »

What was the makeup in 2006? Why does it appear that SUSA is weighing Democrats so heavily in their polls recently?
Because they aren't weighing for partisan ID at all. And because it is spur-of-the-moment self-identification they're asking, not registration (half the people lie and the other half don't remember on that question anyways.) If the country swings hard one direction... pollsters who do reweight lag behind developments.
Then again, not weighing (though they do weight for a lot of other factors like race, age, sex) also somewhat increases the risk of catching a wacky sample.
But as SUSA seems to be showing that in state after state right now... the "everybody else lags" argument does gain some credence... probably just a post-nomination Obama bump. Just like McCain looking like he actually had even odds at the presidency was just a post-nomination McCain bump.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,529


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2008, 12:09:39 pm »

As Jermome Armstrong on MyDD said "Obama could run for governor of Iowa while still living in Illinois and win"
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines