KY: Switch from Mitch

[TheresNoMoney]

McConnell will win in KY, but at least he'll have to spend a lot of time camaigning and spend a ton of money.

[The Mikado]

I wouldn't be surprised if this race was vaguely close.  I am surprised (and deeply skeptical) that Lunsford is not only close, but ahead by 5 points.

Eh.  We'll wait and see if this turns out to be anything more than a blip.  If it does, the GOP is in serious trouble.  If it doesn't...they're still in serious trouble, but they'll at least hang on to a competent and skilled Senate Minority Leader.

[Conan]

McCain will probably win Kentucky somewhere with a margin like 62-35 so McConnell will still win.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This is probably an outlier, but Mitch is by no means safe.  The RSCC will probably need to spend money everywhere except for Wyoming and Tennessee

[Flying Dog]

This is probably an outlier, but Mitch is by no means safe.  The RSCC will probably need to spend money everywhere except for Wyoming and Tennessee

Not even Wyoming is safe from the Tsunami, my friend.

[Adlai Stevenson]

McConnell up 11 points in internal polling

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) holds an 11-point lead over his Democratic opponent, businessman Bruce Lunsford, according to the McConnell campaign’s internal polling released today.

The poll shows McConnell leading Lunsford 50 to 39 percent in a head-to-head matchup, The numbers are unchanged in McConnell’s internal polling since Lunsford won the Democratic primary this month.

The poll also shows McConnell holding a strong job approval rating: 57 percent of respondents said they approved of McConnell’s job performance while 30 percent disapproved.

Fifty-five percent of voters had a favorable impression of McConnell, while 32 percent had an unfavorable impression. Lunsford had a lower net favorability rating: 34 percent held a positive impression of him, while 20 percent had an unfavorable impression.

The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between May 21-22, and was conducted by the GOP firm Voter/Consumer Research. The poll has a four percent margin of error.

It contradicts the numbers from a newly-released automated Rasmussen poll, which shows Lunsford leading McConnell, 49 to 44 percent.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0508/McConnell_up_11_points_in_internal_polling.html

This gives credence to the Rasmussen poll - being only up 11% in your own internal seems surprisingly low.  I would have expected 15%-20% - perhaps McConnell really is in danger? 

[Alcon]

There's a difference between an internal and an "internal."  Unfortunately it's impossible to tell the difference.

[© tweed]

if McConnell finds a way to lose I will regretfully burn a flag in his honor

[MarkWarner08]

Who has the most COH of any Senator up for reelection? Mitch McConnell. Who is the most adroit Republican Senate tactician for parliamentary and political matters? Mitch McConnell. Who won a stunning upset in 1984 with an innovative TV ad featuring bloodhounds tailing his absentee opponent? Mitch McConnell. Who do I think can use Barack Obama to sink Lunsford's chances? Mitch McConnell.

Barring a seismic shift in public opinion about Barack Obama in KY, I don't see how Lunsford can win this race.

[Bluegrass Cruiser 420]

Who has the most COH of any Senator up for reelection? Mitch McConnell. Who is the most adroit Republican Senate tactician for parliamentary and political matters? Mitch McConnell. Who won a stunning upset in 1984 with an innovative TV ad featuring bloodhounds tailing his absentee opponent? Mitch McConnell. Who do I think can use Barack Obama to sink Lunsford's chances? Mitch McConnell.

Barring a seismic shift in public opinion about Barack Obama in KY, I don't see how Lunsford can win this race.

I would also require a third party candidate to splint the anti-Lunsford vote and McConnell to run a horrible re-election campaign (something he has never done).