How will Obama overcome an Ohio and Florida loss?

[ps79]

How can he still win when he loses those, and there's a decent chance he might lose them according to the polls right now. He might win states like Colorado and Virginia that used to go Republican, but that doesn't add up enough to make up for the eventual big losses. So how is he able to?

[Verily]

How can he still win when he loses those, and there's a decent chance he might lose them according to the polls right now. He might win states like Colorado and Virginia that used to go Republican, but that doesn't add up enough to make up for the eventual big losses. So how is he able to?

Hmm? If Obama won all of the Kerry states plus Colorado and Virginia, he wins. He wouldn't need either Ohio or Florida. You've answered your own question.

[ps79]

Ok, thought it would be worse. But didn't do the math. Still, he needs to carry all the Kerry states..plus take away some solid GOP states, which is very hard. Going to be so tight.

[Verily]

Colorado and Virginia (and Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico, which also seem to be favoring Obama generally speaking) are not by any means "solid GOP states". With the exception of Virginia, Kerry did better in all of them than in Florida!

Of course, the reality of Florida is too complicated to go into, but I daresay it is a "solid" GOP state (or at least more so than many states which actually were not as close in 2000 or 2004), with Gore in 2000 nearly winning it in what might be considered extremely ideal circumstances for the Democrats in the state.

[auburntiger]

Assuming he takes Iowa and New Mexico, which were both Bush states by less than a point, He needs either Colorado or Nevada. AT this point, I'm not sure which of the latter 2 states is more likely to flip.

How ironic would it be if he took Nevada but not Colorado (269-269) and loses the popular vote, but because of the Dem congress, Obama is voted in.
For the sake of the country not tearing itself to pieces, I'd prefer to have a clean victory for either McCain or Obama.

Also, Democrats are NOT going to win Virginia. You can quote me on that.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Assuming he takes Iowa and New Mexico, which were both Bush states by less than a point, He needs either Colorado or Nevada. AT this point, I'm not sure which of the latter 2 states is more likely to flip.

How ironic would it be if he took Nevada but not Colorado (269-269) and loses the popular vote, but because of the Dem congress, Obama is voted in.
For the sake of the country not tearing itself to pieces, I'd prefer to have a clean victory for either McCain or Obama.

Also, Democrats are NOT going to win Virginia. You can quote me on that.

I wouldn't write VA off right now.

[auburntiger]

Assuming he takes Iowa and New Mexico, which were both Bush states by less than a point, He needs either Colorado or Nevada. AT this point, I'm not sure which of the latter 2 states is more likely to flip.

How ironic would it be if he took Nevada but not Colorado (269-269) and loses the popular vote, but because of the Dem congress, Obama is voted in.
For the sake of the country not tearing itself to pieces, I'd prefer to have a clean victory for either McCain or Obama.

Also, Democrats are NOT going to win Virginia. You can quote me on that.

I wouldn't write VA off right now.

Oh I don't doubt it will be a swing state, but in the end VA will be ours.

[J. J.]

Here is my TOSS UP list as of today:

NV, CO, NM, MO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, VA, NH.

The two that are very likely to drop off that list are MO (R), and WI (D).

[Beet]

The math is hard. Obama must clear several hurdles. First, he must win all the Kerry states.
He faces serious trouble in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If he can overcome his trouble in all 4 states, he moves on to stage 2.
Now he needs 18 more electoral votes, but has only 4 states (IA, NM, CO, NV), from which to grab them. He loses if McCain wins any 2:
If McCain wins
IA and NM
IA and CO
IA and NV
NM and CO
NM and NV
CO and NV
McCain wins, even if Obama keeps all the Kerry states.
Also, if McCain wins CO, it's a tie, even if Obama wins every other Kerry state + IA, NM, and NV.
If McCain wins NH (where he is currently polling ahead), then he wins if he can win any one of IA, NM, CO or NV, even if Obama keeps every other Kerry state.

Basically, John McCain has a bajillion paths to victory... it's like shooting fish in a barrel. Barack Obama, on the other hand, needs to be like Annie Oakley. Unless you believe the magic that he somehow wins VA. Or if you think he can win in states where Clinton is currently polling better (and is part of the old Dem 'swing state' strategy).. MO, OH and FL.

[J. J.]

Basically, the could happen:

Obama has to hold NH, take IA, CO, and NV.  Now he could lose any one of those and take VA.

The bellwethers will be VA and NH.  A McCain win in both will give it a tie, at best.  I really expect PA and MI to be in play.  A loss in either for Obama ends its for him.

[Bluegrass Cruiser 420]

Me personally I'm hoping for a 269-269 tie in the EC which also very possible this year.  If it were thrown to the House of Reps, as per the Constitution, they would have to vote as states (meaning each state's congressional delegation would get together to decide which candidate their state will vote for). 

Thus big states like California, Texas, New York, Florida etc. probably wouldn't be able to decide how they vote and since it 2/3 majority of the state votes to win it would then be thrown to the Senate who would basically be electing the Vice-President as the next President.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think Colorado is the most important state for Obama. He can win the election by losing OH and winning in IA, CO, NM and NV.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Magic!

I think people here are looking at things the wrong way. If he loses Ohio he's unlikely to have been able to pull off the tricks needed to make that not matter. Equally, if he wins Ohio it's likely that... and so on.

[Mr. Morden]

Magic!

I think people here are looking at things the wrong way. If he loses Ohio he's unlikely to have been able to pull off the tricks needed to make that not matter. Equally, if he wins Ohio it's likely that... and so on.

Yes, exactly.  Right now, McCain and Obama are virtually tied in national polls.  If they're still that close nationally in November, then either one of them will have to thread the needle in order to win.  But if one of them is ahead by more than a few points, then what happens on the state-by-state level is irrelevant.

[Sam Spade]

Magic!

I think people here are looking at things the wrong way. If he loses Ohio he's unlikely to have been able to pull off the tricks needed to make that not matter. Equally, if he wins Ohio it's likely that... and so on.

yes yes yes.

Although I think the out west CO, NV, NM (or IA) gambit is not impossible, I suspect if he wins these he's already won Ohio.  Maybe a 5%-10% chance of doing this gambit, but I think it is unlikely.  Otherwise, no.

[Ogre Mage]

There is still a solid chance Obama could win Ohio.  He's very competitive there and should contest the state fiercely.  As for Florida, some Democrats could have been competitive there but Obama isn't one of them.  If he wins Florida it will mean McCain completely bombed out.

The most likely way to overcome a loss in both FL and OH would be a pickup of Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico.  Obama has a modest but clear lead in Iowa, while Colorado and N.M. look very, very close.  This would not be easy to pull off but I could see him doing it.

I remain skeptical about Obama's chances in Virginia.  There are other states where he looks better positioned to win.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Simple:

1.  Win the Kerry states (252 EV)
2.  Win NM, CO, and IA (20 EV)

That gives him 272, enough to win.

[ps79]

There is still a solid chance Obama could win Ohio.  He's very competitive there and should contest the state fiercely.  As for Florida, some Democrats could have been competitive there but Obama isn't one of them.  If he wins Florida it will mean McCain completely bombed out.

The most likely way to overcome a loss in both FL and OH would be a pickup of Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico.  Obama has a modest but clear lead in Iowa, while Colorado and N.M. look very, very close.  This would not be easy to pull off but I could see him doing it.

I remain skeptical about Obama's chances in Virginia.  There are other states where he looks better positioned to win.

I think this election will be too much McCain's to win and Obama's to lose really. Too much tossup states eventually, and if a needed one doesn't go for Obama it's over. Still early days though

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I do think the "he just wins the Kerry states and CO, IA and NV. What are you worried about?" attitude is a risky one. McCain does pose a significant risk to PA, MI, WI Aand NH. Just the same as polls showing Obama behind 5 months out are too presumptive, polls showing McCain behind are equally pointless.

Everything seems based on the premise that Obama will win all the Kerry states, which isn't faulty logic, but not taking everything into account. Should Obama not hold onto ONE Kerry state the math looks really difficult.

The Kerry states: 252

So, IA (7), NV (5), CO (9), NM (5) - 278 - A win, but likely a very tight one.

But that all relies on him onto all 252 Kerry EV, and winning a LOT of tight states. If he were (I'm only talking in 'what if' land) to lose PA, he has to find another 12 EV to just win, that brings in MO, VA and OH - these aren't impossible states, just hard.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

You mean Ohio and Pennsylvania don't you?

Sure it might be simple for Obama to carry all of the Kerry states and carry Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada but that won't be enough. It might be enough for Obama electorally speaking, but we need to think of the crucial demographics Obama needs to win over, in order to win the White House. Obama needs Hillary's supporter base in order for him to win two crucial states in 2008, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

If he doesn't win Ohio, he can win the White House without it, however if he loses Pennsylvania to McCain in the General, then Obama's plan of winning all of the Kerry states and Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada, his road to the White House is blocked and John McCain becomes 44th President of the United States.

[auburntiger]

These are the tossups I can see going into election day:

First Tier Battleground:
Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Second Tier Battleground: election will have been decided if these states are truly in play
Missouri
Virginia
Florida
New Hampshire
Michigan
Iowa
wisconsin

third Tier: for these to be truly in play will result in a mini-landslide in the 320-330 range:
North Carolina
Minnesota
New Jersey
Tennessee
Montana
Oregon

[DownWithTheLeft]

Easy, he won't

[Rococo4]

It all hinges on Colorado.  That is the gateway to the winning without Ohio strategy.  He's 8 short with Colorado, assuming every Kerry 2004 holds.  So he needs 2 of the 3 - Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada.

without ohio and colorado its possible but not likely......he could do nevada, new mexico, iowa for the 269-269 tie, but that doesnt seem too possible.

[Rococo4]

Simple:

1.  Win the Kerry states (252 EV)
2.  Win NM, CO, and IA (20 EV)

That gives him 272, enough to win.

small point, NM, CO, IA are actually 21 EV
but your broader point is correct

[Stranger in a strange land]

Basically, the could happen:

Obama has to hold NH, take IA, CO, and NV.  Now he could lose any one of those and take VA.

The bellwethers will be VA and NH.  A McCain win in both will give it a tie, at best.  I really expect PA and MI to be in play.  A loss in either for Obama ends its for him.

New Mexico will go dem long before Colorado will. I'd say he has an okay chance of winning Ohio FWIW.