Oregon - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #50 on: May 20, 2008, 10:04:01 PM »
Results coming in rapidly, already at 11% with 63-37 for Obama.
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Verily
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« Reply #51 on: May 20, 2008, 10:04:11 PM »
CNN's poll says ~56-42.
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Alcon
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« Reply #52 on: May 20, 2008, 10:04:28 PM »
Exit poll margin is 55.9-42.3 Obama (+13.6%).
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Torie
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« Reply #53 on: May 20, 2008, 10:05:41 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on May 20, 2008, 10:04:28 PM
Exit poll margin is 55.9-42.3 Obama (+13.6%).

It was a telephone poll. It is hard to do exit polls if you vote by mail, I would suspect. Tongue
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #54 on: May 20, 2008, 10:06:39 PM »
Apparently Lane posts pre-Monday numbers at close, too. Anyway, the current results are the pre-Monday ballots from just two counties, likely some of Obama's better ones. This means that Obama will actually win those counties by wider margins than currently reported (because the late ballots will favor him more strongly), but that his overall margin will go down first as less favorable counties post their pre-Monday results.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #55 on: May 20, 2008, 10:08:12 PM »
Portland news station 61-39 Obama 161K-104K
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #56 on: May 20, 2008, 10:08:58 PM »
Quote from: Oregon Progressive on May 20, 2008, 10:08:12 PM
Portland news station 61-39 Obama 161K-104K

Do you have a link for that online? They're ahead of CNN by quite a bit.
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Sbane
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« Reply #57 on: May 20, 2008, 10:09:21 PM »
I am absolutely loving these numbers right now. IF he wins multonomah with a higher margin than this then expect a huge win.
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Alcon
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« Reply #58 on: May 20, 2008, 10:10:11 PM »
First votes from Marion County are 53-47 Obama.  That should have been a battleground.

Obama also leading Lincoln County, as expected.

Wasco a tie.  Cool!
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Verily
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« Reply #59 on: May 20, 2008, 10:10:58 PM »
Marion and Lincoln post pre-Monday numbers; 53-47 Obama in both. Any idea what would have been expected from those? I know people had talked about Salem being Clinton's best large city.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #60 on: May 20, 2008, 10:11:38 PM »
CNN just called it
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Alcon
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« Reply #61 on: May 20, 2008, 10:12:03 PM »
CNN projects Oregon for Obama

Salem should have been even-ish, a small Obama victory mayhaps; Obama outperformed.  Lincoln is a mix of blue-collar, retirees and service industry workers -- he's performing at about par.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #62 on: May 20, 2008, 10:12:39 PM »
Wow, Wasco County. Of course, that could be a reporting error (accidentally entered the same number for both). Hood River 60-40 for Obama so far. Polk 55-45.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #63 on: May 20, 2008, 10:13:41 PM »
Quote from: Verily on May 20, 2008, 10:10:58 PM
Marion and Lincoln post pre-Monday numbers; 53-47 Obama in both. Any idea what would have been expected from those? I know people had talked about Salem being Clinton's best large city.

Hard to predict Oregon primaries, since it hasn't been significant since '68 or '84....

Marion Co. demographics fit the Hillary profile nationally.
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Alcon
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« Reply #64 on: May 20, 2008, 10:14:23 PM »
Polk is about expected, there's a state university there but also working-class rural people

Hood River has Hispanics but is essentially service industry workers + yuppie whites.  60-40 is a good enough sort of result there for Obama

I'm having trouble believing there's so much variance in % reporting (80% in H River, 31% in Lane), but I guess it's kind of hard since this isn't being done by precinct.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #65 on: May 20, 2008, 10:15:06 PM »
Quote from: Verily on May 20, 2008, 10:08:58 PM
Quote from: Oregon Progressive on May 20, 2008, 10:08:12 PM
Portland news station 61-39 Obama 161K-104K

Do you have a link for that online? They're ahead of CNN by quite a bit.

Sorry, local TV news.... Sad
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #66 on: May 20, 2008, 10:15:13 PM »
From the projection, Obama has snagged 9 pledged delegates compared to 2 for Hillary Clinton.  That puts him 85 delegates away from 2,026.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #67 on: May 20, 2008, 10:17:00 PM »
Obama - 167K - 60%
Clinton - 110K - 40%
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Alcon
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« Reply #68 on: May 20, 2008, 10:17:37 PM »
Obama near 60% in Washington County, which is pretty damn impressive especially since it's mostly early ballots.  That's exactly the sort of showing he needed.
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Meeker
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« Reply #69 on: May 20, 2008, 10:17:50 PM »
Quicker results, pretty maps, more offices: http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/05/presidential_results.html
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #70 on: May 20, 2008, 10:18:33 PM »
Oregon - one of the most liberal states in the union. Bless them. Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #71 on: May 20, 2008, 10:19:27 PM »
Clinton leads in Columbia, Malheur, Douglas, Coos.  Coos, Clinton by 10, is his best performance in early ballots so far.  Coos is totally made for Clinton.

Edit: Obama might break 70% in Benton County.  Good lord.
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Verily
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« Reply #72 on: May 20, 2008, 10:20:14 PM »
The Oregonian's website has Obama leading in Curry County! I thought that corner was supposed to be Clinton's stronghold.
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Alcon
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« Reply #73 on: May 20, 2008, 10:21:28 PM »
Quote from: Verily on May 20, 2008, 10:20:14 PM
The Oregonian's website has Obama leading in Curry County! I thought that corner was supposed to be Clinton's stronghold.

Curry is older, poorer, doesn't really have much of a service industry...it doesn't have as many "Bush Democrats" as Coos does but it's still her demographic.  Losing Curry is pretty embarrassing.
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Alcon
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« Reply #74 on: May 20, 2008, 10:22:30 PM »
Clinton's first good news is that she's smiting in Pendleton; 57-40 in Umatilla County.  On the other hand, Madras, which is a mix of poor Democrats and some Bend-like mountain transplants, is voting Obama.

Clackamas is barely Obama, which really isn't that surprising -- it's not the sort of suburb where Obama does well.
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