I never realized how awful Hispanic turnout was...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Until I looked at the raw figures for some of those congressional districts. Amusingly Kerry's best district in Arizona by percentage (AZ-04) is also the one with the least amount of delegates (only 3), and also the one where Kerry received the lowest amount of raw votes. And in California, the 9 districts where Hillary got the least amount of votes were also all ones that voted for her (some by over 2:1 margins against Obama.) Not to mention that districts Obama carried where her 2nd and 4th best in the state by raw votes.

For once I'll be thankful of this though. If Hispanics actually voted in numbers comparable to other groups, Hillary probably would be the nominee now, or at least would have a snowball's chance in hell of taking it.

[minionofmidas]

Especially in California and Arizona, Hispanics aren't citizens in figures comparable to other groups. (Well, except Asians.) But even of the citizens, a smaller share is registered to vote and (I think) even among Hispanic registered voters the turnout is sub-average. It just adds up.

[ottermax]

However, in a general election it might be able make Arizona a Democratic state...

[Verily]

However, in a general election it might be able make Arizona a Democratic state...

Not with McCain there. Or was this a hypothetical "in 2012/2016" statement? Because a lot of Arizona's growth is white internal migrants rather than Hispanic immigrants anyway.

[ottermax]

However, in a general election it might be able make Arizona a Democratic state...

Not with McCain there. Or was this a hypothetical "in 2012/2016" statement? Because a lot of Arizona's growth is white internal migrants rather than Hispanic immigrants anyway.

What percentage of voters in Arizona are Hispanic compared with the actual percentage of Hispanics? I know there aren't that many Hispanics, but I would like to know how many Hispanics voted.

[Verily]

However, in a general election it might be able make Arizona a Democratic state...

Not with McCain there. Or was this a hypothetical "in 2012/2016" statement? Because a lot of Arizona's growth is white internal migrants rather than Hispanic immigrants anyway.

What percentage of voters in Arizona are Hispanic compared with the actual percentage of Hispanics? I know there aren't that many Hispanics, but I would like to know how many Hispanics voted.

CNN's exit poll in 2004 had 12% of Arizona voters as Hispanic, voting 56-43 for Kerry. According to 2006 census estimates (the ones on Wikipedia), Arizona was then 29% Hispanic. Assuming both are accurate, Hispanics in Arizona are less than half as likely to vote as other races (mostly white in Arizona).

Here's the exit poll: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/AZ/P/00/epolls.0.html

[Albus Dumbledore]

If a large chunk of an ethnic group's population are either not yet naturalized newbies or under 18 don't expect voter turnout to be high.

[jokerman]

We need some tammany hall or pendergast style machines to mobilize this vote for the Democrats.  Think of all the lost votes!

[Albus Dumbledore]

We need some tammany hall or pendergast style machines to mobilize this vote for the Democrats.  Think of all the lost votes!

[Sbane]

We need some tammany hall or pendergast style machines to mobilize this vote for the Democrats.  Think of all the lost votes!

Hard to do that when they are spread around in farming areas isnt it? It can and is done in places like LA and hopefully in Denver and Vegas but it is just not possible in the central valley of california or in southern texas.

[Sam Spade]

We need some tammany hall or pendergast style machines to mobilize this vote for the Democrats.  Think of all the lost votes!

Hard to do that when they are spread around in farming areas isnt it? It can and is done in places like LA and hopefully in Denver and Vegas but it is just not possible in the central valley of california or in southern texas.

There are no machines in South Texas?  Do you seriously know what you're talking about?

[Sbane]

We need some tammany hall or pendergast style machines to mobilize this vote for the Democrats.  Think of all the lost votes!

Hard to do that when they are spread around in farming areas isnt it? It can and is done in places like LA and hopefully in Denver and Vegas but it is just not possible in the central valley of california or in southern texas.

There are no machines in South Texas?  Do you seriously know what you're talking about?

Ok you got me I have no clue. But I would guess turning out the latino vote would be easier in a big city like LA than in rural areas. Of course south texas has its own share of cities so it makes sense there would be machines there.

[Sam Spade]

We need some tammany hall or pendergast style machines to mobilize this vote for the Democrats.  Think of all the lost votes!

Hard to do that when they are spread around in farming areas isnt it? It can and is done in places like LA and hopefully in Denver and Vegas but it is just not possible in the central valley of california or in southern texas.

There are no machines in South Texas?  Do you seriously know what you're talking about?

Ok you got me I have no clue. But I would guess turning out the latino vote would be easier in a big city like LA than in rural areas. Of course south texas has its own share of cities so it makes sense there would be machines there.

Back in the day, whoever controlled the South Texas Democratic machine controlled who was elected statewide in Texas (ask LBJ).

There are two pretty big false assumptions here.  First, that you can only have machines in urban areas.  Truth be told, machines are probably still more common in rural areas, and definitely were so in the past - you just didn't hear about them.  Ask Al.  Second, the South Texas Democrats can get the Hispanics to show up (relatively speaking - remember many aren't citizens) if they need to - just ask Barack Obama.  At least they're not doing too much polling of cemetaries any more down there.

[jokerman]

I'm just saying if our guys were doing their jobs down there a place like Harris County shouldn't go GOP at any level.

[Sam Spade]

I'm just saying if our guys were doing their jobs down there a place like Harris County shouldn't go GOP at any level.

Well, first off, you can try and register them. 

But even then, it's nearly impossible to get the bulk of lower-income Hispanics who are actually citizens and not criminals to actually show up and vote.  Even if you run Hispanic-surnamed candidates.  It takes a very special situation. 

Hillary did the best turnout job in the 2008 primaries that I've seen in years in Hispanic Harris County.  And if the Democrats keep running certain types of candidates (the candidates they've been running, both state and federal), it won't change.

Trust me - I've been in the trenches.

[Albus Dumbledore]

I'm just saying if our guys were doing their jobs down there a place like Harris County shouldn't go GOP at any level.

Err... yes and no. I think it requires a more moderate democrat party to accomplish it fully.

[Sam Spade]

I'm just saying if our guys were doing their jobs down there a place like Harris County shouldn't go GOP at any level.

Err... yes and no. I think it requires a more moderate democrat party to accomplish it fully.

I can also tell you that I'm getting more good "inside info" that many of them are not interested in voting for Obama.  Not surprising, really, when you consider where they are located.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Latins aren't fond of blacks. For good reason too since blacks keep trying to monopolize getting their problems fixed/be the only 'minority'.

[Sbane]

I think turnout will be lower than usual( thats saying a lot) among hispanics this year. Those who show up I suspect will choose Obama by a pretty good margin.