Lunar
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,404
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« on: May 12, 2008, 02:29:22 AM » |
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Hillary is more electable, Hill's biggest argument. Let's assume the polls indicate this.
1) That’s not the only thing that matters. Many people and superdelegates would rather have someone they like more than someone more likely to win. It’s a trade off. Clearly Kerry won in 2004 on a strong electability argument, but it’s just one facet of the calculations. (How happy I am with this candidate)x(likelihood this candidate wins) = score. Electability is furthermore only one aspect of “egitimacy and one could argue a smallish part of it. In order for it to truly be convincing it requires an additional claim to legitimacy like the popular vote.
2) No one has attacked Clinton from the right. Clinton has attacked Obama from the right. This means that many moderates feel comfortable with Clinton right now. But after a bruising election she would likely be seen as a Democratic partisan. Her record is generally identical to Obama’s over the last few years with a few minor vote differences but nothing to separate them ideologically. Does anyone think that she can’t be painted as a left-wing partisan with the Clinton name and all of those speeches about “taking on the Republicans” etc. This skews the poll numbers.
3) There are more Democrats than Republicans in America and always have been in recent times. Lots of Democrats tend to vote, or always vote for conservatives. The ones on the “tend to vote” side likely view McCain as their type of Republican There’s thus a substantial amount of DINOs voting in the Democratic election will not vote for a Democrat in November. Polling numbers released in the media simply ask people who voted for Clinton/Obama if his/her opponent won in November would they support McCain and don’t try and filter out solid McCain supporters.
4) Some McCain supporters voting Clinton to just screw things up for Democrats? Not a large effect if it even exists but thought I’d throw it out there.
5) If Hillary did win without the other indicators of legitimacy under the electability criteria, that itself damages her elecatbility since many people will not view her as legitimate. These include all of the following that she’s probably going to lose: popular vote, better organization, more money, more passionate supporters, better run campaign, pledged delegates, total supporters, and so on.
I know I’m beating a dead horse, but I just thought I’d like to address the last key argument by Hillary to superdelegates. Emphasize #2 & #5
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