Quebec by-elections, 2008

[Hash]

There will be three by-elections tomorrow in Quebec.

Bourget

Candidates
Lyn Thériault, Liberal (Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve mayor)
Denis Mondor, ADQ
Maka Kotto, PQ (former MP for Saint-Lambert)
Scott McKay, Green (leader of the Green Party)
Gaétan Legault, Quebec Solidaire
Richard Gervais, Independence Party (leader of the PI)

2007 Results
PQ 41.26%
ADQ 23.01%
Liberal 22.85%
Green 8.09%
QS 4.19%
PDCQ 0.6%

Hull

Candidates
Maryse Gaudreault, Liberal
Jean-Philip Ruel, ADQ
Gilles Aubé, PQ
Brian Gibb, Green (trivia: was an ADQ candidate in 2003)
Bill Clennett, Quebec Solidaire
Jean-Roch Villemaire, Independence Party

2007 Results
Liberal 42.53%
PQ 23.93%
ADQ 17.06%
Green 8.33%
QS 7.93%
Marxist-Leninist 0.23%

Pointe-aux-Trembles

Candidates
Mélissa Dumais, Liberal
Diane Bellemare, ADQ
Nicole Léger, PQ (former MNA for the constituency)
Xavier Daxhelet, Green (trivia: was an ADQ candidate in 2003)
Marie Josèphe Pigeon, Quebec Solidaire
Colette Provost, Independence Party
Gérald Briand, Independent
Régent Millette, Independent (candidate in 15 other federal and provincial elections)

2007 Results
PQ 47.3%
ADQ 26.45%
Liberal 18.24%
Green 4.31%
QS 2.62%
Bloc Pot 0.53%
PDCQ 0.4%
Marxist-Leninist 0.14%


Shouldn't have any big surprises, all 3 constituencies will likely hold their incumbent seats. Interesting race for second in Bourget, where the ADQ could drop back into third.

The ADQ didn't get former Hydro Quebec CEO Andre Caille to run in Bourget; according to somebody I know who worked at Hydro Quebec, Dumont promised Caille a top energy ministry spot in a ADQ government.

Electoral debut for the left-wing staunchly nationalist PI, running a full slate of candidates here.

The ADQ will likely lose votes in all three seats, the ADQ has dropped to 17% in the last CROP poll, a bit below its 2003 level! (Liberals lead 38-29 against the PQ, Greens at 9% and QS at 5%).

[Verily]

Almost certainly there will be no surprises. As you said, the ADQ is struggling in the polls; not much of a surprise when the lions share of its MNAs are freshmen. The ADQ may drop to third in Pointe-aux-Trembles, too, on a bad night.

The Green vote will be interesting to watch, given that they're not being squeezed in any of these seats. Third ahead of the ADQ might not be out of reach in Hull. It's interesting that they seem to be aggressively recruiting ADQuistes.

Maka Kotto should get a sky-high vote in Bourget, too, with a probable strong swing to the PQ.

And what is the PI doing? Their description sounds like they're a (personality-based) splinter of QS or something.

[Hash]

And what is the PI doing? Their description sounds like they're a (personality-based) splinter of QS or something.

If I'm not mistaken its a more leftist and radical version of the PQ and to some extent QS. They're also very anti-Anglophone and pro-Law 101 IIRC.

[MaxQue]

There will be three by-elections tomorrow in Quebec.

Bourget

Candidates
Lyn Thériault, Liberal (Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve mayor)
Denis Mondor, ADQ
Maka Kotto, PQ (former MP for Saint-Lambert)
Scott McKay, Green (leader of the Green Party)

Scoot McKay is the FORMER leader of the Green Party. The leader is Guy Rainville.

[Hash]

There will be three by-elections tomorrow in Quebec.

Bourget

Candidates
Lyn Thériault, Liberal (Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve mayor)
Denis Mondor, ADQ
Maka Kotto, PQ (former MP for Saint-Lambert)
Scott McKay, Green (leader of the Green Party)

Scoot McKay is the FORMER leader of the Green Party. The leader is Guy Rainville.

Do they change every day?

[Hash]

Swings to gain

Bourget
ADQ gain: 18.25%
Liberal gain: 18.41%

Hull
PQ gain: 18.6%
ADQ gain: 25.47%

Pointe-aux-Trembles
ADQ gain: 20.85%
Liberal gain: 29.06%

Yeah, not happening.

[Verily]

Results are trickling in. With very little in, the ADQ is behind the PVQ in Hull and only three votes ahead of them in Bourget. It could be an embarrassing night for the ADQ. Otherwise the results look as expected, big PQ majority in Bourget and big PLQ majority in Hull. Nothing from Pointe-aux-Trembles yet.

[Hash]

Some stuff

48.7% for Kotto in Bourget, Greens take third (over 13% )

Narrower in Hull! 37.27 for Libs, 31.68 for PQ, QS! on 18.01% ADQ riding around 3% (lolz!)

Nothing in Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Go Greenies! Third in Bourget and over 10% would be great

[Verily]

And a link for those not in the know:

http://www.monvote.qc.ca/partielles/en/resultatsPreliminaires.asp?circ=378

[Hash]

Liberal lead narrower in Hull, right now. ADQ is getting joke party status.

[Verily]

QS is now in third in Hull; that won't last. The ADQ is in fifth there. The strong QS showing indicates some heavily francophone areas just came in, thus the narrowing of the PLQ-PQ margin. Still should be a PLQ hold.

[Hash]

Greenies on 12% in Hull, QS about 13%.

[Hash]

Turnout seems quite low.

[Hash]

ADQ gaining in Bourget (11% IIRC) but still behind the Greenies.

[Hash]

ADQ third in Bourget now. Damn.

[Verily]

Boo, the ADQ is back in third in Bourget. Greens in third in Hull, though, and the ADQ performance there is dire, at least so far.

[Hash]

PQ on about 63% in early P-a-T results. ADQ one vote ahead of Libs for second.

[Hash]

The ADQ still staying around 4% in Hull. Lolz.

[Hash]

Still somewhat close Lib-PQ in Hull, QS still in third and 12.4%. Greenies about 11%.

PI is doing badly, obviously.

[Hash]

PQ still over 60% in PaT.

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*cheer*. Greenies back up narrow third in Bourget. C'mon Greens!

[Verily]

Enormous PQ numbers in Point-aux-Trembles now. I'm not sure why, but 60% probably will not hold. The results look somewhat concerning for the Liberals so far; Hull should not be this close.

[Hash]

ADQ now 3.4% in Hull. If it stays this way, I'll be quite cheerful tomorrow.

No SuperMario eh?

[Hash]

Enormous PQ numbers in Point-aux-Trembles now. I'm not sure why, but 60% probably will not hold. The results look somewhat concerning for the Liberals so far; Hull should not be this close.

Gaudreault has opened up her lead, now on 41.85%.

[Verily]

You post too fast, Hashemite. Now my comments are out of date