leading 2012 Dem. presidential candidates as of early 2009?--May '08 edition
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 20, 2024, 04:56:15 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  leading 2012 Dem. presidential candidates as of early 2009?--May '08 edition
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Pick up to three of the following who you think will be leading 2012 presidential candidates if McCain wins in '08
#1
Evan Bayh
 
#2
Sherrod Brown
 
#3
Wesley Clark
 
#4
Hillary Clinton
 
#5
John Edwards
 
#6
Russ Feingold
 
#7
Al Gore
 
#8
Brad Henry
 
#9
John Kerry
 
#10
Blanche Lincoln
 
#11
Janet Napolitano
 
#12
Barack Obama
 
#13
Martin O'Malley
 
#14
Ed Rendell
 
#15
Bill Richardson
 
#16
Bill Ritter
 
#17
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
 
#18
Brian Schweitzer
 
#19
Kathleen Sebelius
 
#20
Ted Strickland
 
#21
Mark Udall
 
#22
Mark Warner
 
#23
Jim Webb
 
#24
NOTA
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 36

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: leading 2012 Dem. presidential candidates as of early 2009?--May '08 edition  (Read 13412 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 10, 2008, 05:01:37 PM »

In little more than six months, right after the '08 general election, this board will be knee deep in speculation over who will run in 2012.  But why wait that long?  I've already done a few of these polls in '07, but here's the May 2008 edition.  Previously, I left it up to each poster to decide who they were predicting as nominees in 2008 when making their 2012 prediction.  But now I think it's safe to assume that 2008 will be McCain v. Obama.

So, for the purpose of this poll, assume that McCain beats Obama in November.  Now here's the question: In the spring of 2009 (just ~12 months from now), who do you think will make up the media-annointed "first tier"  of potential contenders for the 2012 Democratic nomination?

You can pick up to three names, but just to be clear, these are the people who you think the media and political insiders will regard as the initial "first tier".  It doesn't mean that they'll be leading in the early 2012 polls, just as (for example) Mitt Romney was regarded as a "first tier" candidate well before he reached double digits in the national polls.  (Likewise, George Allen would have been considered a "first tier" 2008 candidate in late 2005 / early 2006, but in his case his candidacy didn't go anywhere, for obvious reasons.)

Here are the results of this poll from March 2007:

(name, followed by # of votes)

Obama 7
Warner 7
Spitzer 3
Bayh 2
Henry 2

and the top choices in June 2007 (when many more people voted):

Obama 16
Warner 11
Henry 6
Spitzer 5
Sebelius 4

and the top choices in October 2007:

Warner 19
Obama 17
Bayh 13
Henry 8
Schweitzer 7
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,033


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2008, 05:23:33 PM »

Sibelius, Obama and Clinton.
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,768
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2008, 06:35:29 PM »

Mark Warner, Brad Henry, and Russ Feingold. 
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2008, 11:27:15 PM »

Other
Logged
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2008, 08:39:37 AM »

Bayh, Henry, Mark Warner
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2008, 10:00:40 AM »

Feingold, Henry, and Warner.
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,003
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2008, 10:18:39 PM »

Clinton and Obama will still have animosity toward each other from the last election, and as a result, both will run for the purpose to spite the other. Warner also runs.
Logged
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,643
Uzbekistan


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2008, 10:37:54 PM »

Feingold, Obama, and Warner
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2008, 10:46:18 PM »

So people are thinking that Obama is going to be an early frontrunner for the 2012 nomination after just having lost in '08?  Maybe if he loses the electoral college despite winning the popular vote, he could maintain viability as a future presidential contender, a la Al Gore.  But otherwise, I don't see it happening.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2008, 02:36:44 AM »

If Obama loses, Clinton would be extremely difficult to defeat for the 2012 nod
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,707
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2008, 02:46:52 AM »

So people are thinking that Obama is going to be an early frontrunner for the 2012 nomination after just having lost in '08?  Maybe if he loses the electoral college despite winning the popular vote, he could maintain viability as a future presidential contender, a la Al Gore.  But otherwise, I don't see it happening.


I have no reason to believe he couldn't pull a Dewey.

Obama, Clinton, Warner
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2008, 07:14:21 AM »

I have no reason to believe he couldn't pull a Dewey.

The times have changed.  Losers don't have a chance to win primaries if they've already lost once.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,707
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2008, 12:43:59 AM »

I have no reason to believe he couldn't pull a Dewey.

The times have changed.  Losers don't have a chance to win primaries if they've already lost once.

Bob Dole?
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2008, 08:17:48 AM »

I have no reason to believe he couldn't pull a Dewey.

The times have changed.  Losers don't have a chance to win primaries if they've already lost once.

Bob Dole?

Bob Dole was never the GOP nominee before 1996.  Unless you're talking about losing in the primaries and then running again, which happens all the time.  It's obviously different if you're the nominee and lose in the general election.  Then people look at you as a loser, who they're not going to turn to in a subsequent election.  Just look at how well the idea of John Kerry 2008 went over.
Logged
7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,730
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2008, 10:27:46 PM »

Mark Begich, Ronnie Musgrove, Tom Allen apparently.
Logged
Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred
MikeyCNY
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,181


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2008, 07:46:53 AM »

Women don't age well.   In 2012, Hillary will be a shriveled-up hag.

If Dems lose in 2008, Bayh and Warner.
Logged
7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,730
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2008, 10:22:22 AM »

Women don't age well.   In 2012, Hillary will be a shriveled-up hag.

If Dems lose in 2008, Bayh and Warner.
Why are you saying if?  I thought Obama had a 0% chance of winning...
Logged
jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,808
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2008, 06:22:23 PM »

Clinton, Warner, Schweitzer

If Obama happens to lose this year he's not getting renominated in 4 years.
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2008, 07:15:02 PM »

Other: Some person we are not thinking of. Most likely a Women.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2008, 09:28:41 PM »

Other: Some person we are not thinking of. Most likely a Women.

Well, we're only talking about who the leading candidates will be a year from now.  Presumably, all of the early frontrunners will be people we've heard of now, and there are only so many possibilities.  If you have any specific suggestions, let me know, and I can add that name to the next poll.
Logged
Bluegrass Cruiser 420
Rookie
**
Posts: 104
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2008, 10:51:52 PM »

Other: Some person we are not thinking of. Most likely a Women.

What do you mean "a women".  Are you saying that two are more women might try to run for the Dem nomination as some sort of co-president team. 

You know come to think of it, ii in this scenario they were a couple of really hot lesbians who made out every time they made a speech they certainly could win a majority of the male vote; while losing the support of the feminists (who would see as sexually degrading towards women)!
Logged
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,539
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2008, 10:55:10 PM »

Clinton, Bayh and Schweitzer are my best guesses.  But I could see Obama trying again.  Somehow, I think Warner won't run.  I have a hunch the Senate is as high as he can go and he knows it. 

Sherrod Brown's a good guess, too.  I suspect the Democratic Primary field would include Clinton, Bayh and Schweitzer for sure.  With Brown, possibly Bill Nelson, Mark Pryor, Joe Manchin and one or two others on the outside, looking in.

And really, isn't Sheldon Whitehouse almost obligated to run with a last name like that?
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,825


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 25, 2008, 04:00:52 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2008, 09:04:59 PM by Kevinstat »

Mark Begich, Ronnie Musgrove, Tom Allen apparently.

Tom Allen?  For President?  Where did you here that?  I've heard that he's spoken before some pretty far left groups, although I heard that on a right-wing Maine web site.  Still, I'm doubt a Tom Allen Presidential candidacy would ever take off.  He's like Barack Obama in where he lies on the political spectrum, but without the charisma (also without the ties to as controversial people although some of his Senate campaign contributions have come from doners whose donations were somewhat connected to a fugitive from justice; Allen rejected the fugitive's donations but not the other donations somehow connected to this fugitive).
Logged
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,946
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 05, 2008, 05:47:40 PM »

Does any woman really have a shot at the nomination as long as Clinton is running?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 13 queries.