NC SurveyUSA: Final SUSA Poll has Obama leading by....

[ChrisFromNJ]

5/5/05

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http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/local&id=6123227

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[Alcon]

No change since last poll.   SUSA has been showing Clinton as stronger than most any other pollster in NC since the beginning of time.  While I love 'em dearly as a pollster, remember always Alabama and hold on tight.

This is an interesting bit of tid:

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Seems to support the turnout numbers so far in early voting.  This may make for a reverse-California:  early numbers may look better for Obama than they actually are, while exit polls may look worse (or, when considering the exit poll issue with older voters, realistic).

[Eraserhead]

Obama by at least 10.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

No change since last poll.   SUSA has been showing Clinton as stronger than most any other pollster in NC since the beginning of time.  While I love 'em dearly as a pollster, remember always Alabama and hold on tight.

This is an interesting bit of tid:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seems to support the turnout numbers so far in early voting.  This may make for a reverse-California:  early numbers may look better for Obama than they actually are, while exit polls may look worse (or, when considering the exit poll issue with older voters, realistic).

They've been having massive GOTV drives on campus here for Obama. I assume 90% of the people voted for him that did vote. The other 10% were my Republican friends voting for Hillary.

[agcatter]

Survey USA said the race is remarkably stable.  Of course it is.  The 90% of blacks are for Obama and they're not budging.

65% of whites will vote for Hillary and they aren't budging.  It's called racial polarization.

Racial demographics are what determine this one and so Obama wins by 7 or 8. 

Race rules the day.  get used to it.  He doesn't transcend race any longer and hasn't since Wisconsin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

90% of blacks for Obama, 65% of whites for Hillary, and only 33% of the voters being black (probably the lowest possible scenario) still gives Obama +6. A more realistic 35% gives Obama + 8.5.

[Sbane]

Lets hope Obama wins NC by a larger margin than Hillary does IN or else the media will go crazy. They are going to pretend Clinton is winning even though she would still have no chance.

[agcatter]

We're debating?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lets hope Obama wins NC by a larger margin than Hillary does IN or else the media will go crazy. They are going to pretend Clinton is winning even though she would still have no chance.

It really doesn't matter what the media says at this point honestly, after this we have West Virginia (oh gee, I wonder how that'll go), then Kentucky and Oregon (net gain of delegates for Hillary, but also when Obama clinches a majority of pledged delegates), Puerto Rico (doubt it'll get too much attention) and then finally Montana and South Dakota (such states of utmost importance.)

I suppose the good news for Hillary is that this is the second to last day Obama has a chance of winning a net gain of delegates, the last one being South Dakota and Montana where his gain will be small just due to overall delegate pool being small. But that won't be enough.

[TomC]

Lets hope Obama wins NC by a larger margin than Hillary does IN or else the media will go crazy. They are going to pretend Clinton is winning even though she would still have no chance.

Until Obama gets the magic number of delegates, Clinton absolutely does have a chance. Remember, pledged delegates are only pledged for the first ballot at the convention.

[Sam Spade]

Although I think SUSA is underestimating black turnout, undecideds whites in NC have a historical tendency to break for the white person (whatever the number of decideds whites may be - and of course, I have no clue whether this number is correct)

[Sbane]

Lets hope Obama wins NC by a larger margin than Hillary does IN or else the media will go crazy. They are going to pretend Clinton is winning even though she would still have no chance.

Until Obama gets the magic number of delegates, Clinton absolutely does have a chance. Remember, pledged delegates are only pledged for the first ballot at the convention.

Clinton has a chance as in Obama is found to be a coke addict and has to drop out. If things just go along like they have Obama will clinch this thing. And John Mccain is just sitting there collecting money and not having to answer questions.

[True Democrat]

Lets hope Obama wins NC by a larger margin than Hillary does IN or else the media will go crazy. They are going to pretend Clinton is winning even though she would still have no chance.

Until Obama gets the magic number of delegates, Clinton absolutely does have a chance. Remember, pledged delegates are only pledged for the first ballot at the convention.

Clinton has a chance as in Obama is found to be a coke addict and has to drop out. If things just go along like they have Obama will clinch this thing. And John Mccain is just sitting there collecting money and not having to answer questions.

Well, not having to answer questions at least.