NC Insider Advantage: Obama only up 3

[ChrisFromNJ]

http://www.internetnewsagency.com/storylink_55_389.aspx

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The crosstabs look correct and adjusted, unlike IA's previous poll.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Clinton will not get 17% of the black vote.  Throw it out. 

[ChrisFromNJ]

Clinton will not get 17% of the black vote.  Throw it out. 

Some of you Obama supporters are unreal. What is so out of the realm about Hillary receiving 17% of the black vote? She received that much in Texas and Ohio.

You guys can't just throw out every poll that doesn't show the great Messiah leading by 25 points.

In addition, this poll shows Hillary only 58% of the white vote. She could get up to 62%. How come the Obamacult never factors that into the equation?

Most of you have some of the most absurd selective reasoning and cognitive dissonance. It is sickening. Now I know what AHHDuke has been talking about over the last month...

[WalterMitty]

the black vote for hillary is too high in this poll.

but in my opinion, the white vote for hillary is too low too.

and not that it makes much difference, i seriously doubt hispanics will make up 4% of the voters.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Clinton will not get 17% of the black vote.  Throw it out. 

Some of you Obama supporters are unreal. What is so out of the realm about Hillary receiving 17% of the black vote? She received that much in Texas and Ohio.

You guys can't just throw out every poll that doesn't show the great Messiah leading by 25 points.

In addition, this poll shows Hillary only 58% of the white vote. She could get up to 62%. How come the Obamacult never factors that into the equation?

Most of you have some of the most absurd selective reasoning and cognitive dissonance. It is sickening. Now I know what AHHDuke has been talking about over the last month...

Well in the early voting they said that Obama has been getting 90% of the black vote. I'm not saying Clinton couldn't get 17% of the black vote, but I don't think she will.

[Franzl]

Most of you have some of the most absurd selective reasoning and cognitive dissonance. It is sickening. Now I know what AHHDuke has been talking about over the last month...

That coming from you...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Clinton will not get 17% of the black vote.  Throw it out. 

Some of you Obama supporters are unreal. What is so out of the realm about Hillary receiving 17% of the black vote? She received that much in Texas and Ohio.

You guys can't just throw out every poll that doesn't show the great Messiah leading by 25 points.

In addition, this poll shows Hillary only 58% of the white vote. She could get up to 62%. How come the Obamacult never factors that into the equation?

Most of you have some of the most absurd selective reasoning and cognitive dissonance. It is sickening. Now I know what AHHDuke has been talking about over the last month...

When she's been getting less than 10% recently ... so yes it is out of the realm of reason IMO.

You wanna talk about selective reasoning?  You people still think Hillary is gonna win this thing!  I know it's been revealed that Obama is an elitist anti-American who will wage civil war on small town America, and I understand it's very depressing for you, but maybe then it wasn't such a good idea for Hillary to ignore half the primary season (and get trounced by anywhere from 30-50 pts in some states) to pander exclusively to OH and PA so she could make an absurd argument about her ability to win big states. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?type=src&source_id=34

Take a look at IA's track record in the south. Hmmm, I notice a pattern...

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Probably not this close, but NC is not like Georgia or Alabama in terms of the electorate. You all can whine all  you want about the black vote being wrong, Obama will not only Hillary to only 58% of the white vote. That's about as bad as suggesting that Hillary will get 17% of the black vote. She'll get more like 62-65%. Don't toss this, though. IA's only major debunkle was Alabama. NC isn't nearly as black as AL.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Only Alabama?

Mississippi:
IA - Obama +6
Actual - Obama +24

Virginia:
IA - Obama +15
Actual - Obama +28

Tennessee:
IA - Hillary +20
Actual - Hillary +13

Georgia:
IA - Obama +15
Actual - Obama +35

South Carolina:
IA - Obama +10
Actual - Obama +29

[ChrisFromNJ]

Does anybody really think we would have the Obamafolk in here discounting the pollster in question's integrity if St. Obama was up by 30 points?

No, they would be saying that Insider Advantage had a terrific track record. They would be saying that Insider Advantage pretty much nailed Pennsylvania and Texas, among other polls.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can't dispute numbers, let's resort to ad hominems.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Can't dispute numbers, let's resort to ad hominems.

Umm... aren't you the one who is disputing the numbers in this poll?

I wasn't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can't dispute numbers, let's resort to ad hominems.

Umm... aren't you the one who is disputing the numbers in this poll?

I wasn't.

I'm referring to the numbers I posted. IA consistently underpolls Obama in the south. It's a fact.

[Alcon]

I'm not sure how they managed to get Obama +3 out of this breakdown.  I'm getting something more like Obama +5-8.

I do not buy this poll.  IA is showing no indications of having fixed the trouble they had in previous polls of the South.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Can't dispute numbers, let's resort to ad hominems.

Umm... aren't you the one who is disputing the numbers in this poll?

I wasn't.

I'm referring to the numbers I posted. IA consistently underpolls Obama in the south. It's a fact.

Now you know what it's like to deal with you and some of the other Obama supporters. It's frustrating when people don't listen to facts and logic.

I still think that Obama will win NC by 10% or more, but I hardly expect t to be a 20-30% route like it was back when he still was viewed as a Messiah by a lot of people. NC does not have as large a black electorate, and the whites will not vote for Obama like they did in VA. He'll be lucky to get 35-38%. Obama is far more damaged now than he was Super Tuesday through Wisconsin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can't dispute numbers, let's resort to ad hominems.

Umm... aren't you the one who is disputing the numbers in this poll?

I wasn't.

I'm referring to the numbers I posted. IA consistently underpolls Obama in the south. It's a fact.

Now you know what it's like to deal with you and some of the other Obama supporters. It's frustrating when people don't listen to facts and logic.

I still think that Obama will win NC by 10% or more, but I hardly expect t to be a 20-30% route like it was back when he still was viewed as a Messiah by a lot of people. NC does not have as large a black electorate, and the whites will not vote for Obama like they did in VA. He'll be lucky to get 35-38%. Obama is far more damaged now than he was Super Tuesday through Wisconsin.

When have I said in this thread that it'll be by 20-30 points?

I've simply pointed out that IA consistently underpolls Obama and thus this poll is by their record likely way off. Obama winning by 10 would fit in with that. You claimed it was only Alabama, and I have debunked that.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I love how nobody entered this because it makes Obama look bad.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080504034

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love how nobody entered this because it makes Obama look bad.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080504034

More than likely because it's just an all around bad poll. But thank you for at least linking the entry to this thread rather than make a whole new one.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I love how nobody entered this because it makes Obama look bad.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080504034

More than likely because it's just an all around bad poll. But thank you for at least linking the entry to this thread rather than make a whole new one.

If we eliminated all around bad polls, we wouldn't have had many for New Hampshire.  We can't be excluding polls because they don't agree with our predictions.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love how nobody entered this because it makes Obama look bad.

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080504034

More than likely because it's just an all around bad poll. But thank you for at least linking the entry to this thread rather than make a whole new one.

If we eliminated all around bad polls, we wouldn't have had many for New Hampshire.  We can't be excluding polls because they don't agree with our predictions.

There's a difference between the polls being just wrong due to different dynamics (New Hampshire) and really bad disasters of polls (ARG)

IA isn't necessarily on the level of ARG, but they clearly haven't fixed their habit of chronically underpolling Obama in the south.

[exopolitician]

lol@this entire effing thread

Ive acknowledged the fact that it has started to become slightly competetive in North Carolina....but 3 points? I dont think so...

and Chris when did you suddetly turn into a mindless anti-obama drone....pretty sure you were one of the strongest supporters of him and then suddenly you've fipped and now its come down to "oh lulz Obama sucks and so does his supporters...el oh el...im soo much higher than them all of a sudden.."