Scottish Independence Referendum: 30th November 2010

[afleitch]

November 30th 2010 has been pencilled in.

This will be less than 6 months until the next Holyrood election, but some months after the latest possible UK General Election date.

[Verily]

Probably poor timing for the SNP and other pro-independence forces; the electorate will have recently let off steam by kicking Labour really hard in May. Then again, it's hard to see them getting away with a referendum during 2009 or early in 2010, so I suppose it's a political necessity.

[Harry Hayfield]

Which poses the following questions?

1) Vote counting overnight using electronic counting machines?
2) Unitary Authorities, Westminster constituencies, old or new Holyrood constituencies?

[The Mikado]

That'll be a night to remember.  The prospect of the Act of Union overturned, after all these years...I doubt it'd pass, but who knows what the next two years will be like?

As I've said before, with Scotland out, wouldn't the Union Jack be ugly?

[Verily]

That'll be a night to remember.  The prospect of the Act of Union overturned, after all these years...I doubt it'd pass, but who knows what the next two years will be like?

As I've said before, with Scotland out, wouldn't the Union Jack be ugly?

They didn't change it when the bulk of Ireland left, why change it if Scotland goes? Although the "United Kingdom of Great Britain [and NI]" might be a bit of a problem as a name.

[afleitch]

That'll be a night to remember.  The prospect of the Act of Union overturned, after all these years...I doubt it'd pass, but who knows what the next two years will be like?

As I've said before, with Scotland out, wouldn't the Union Jack be ugly?

They didn't change it when the bulk of Ireland left, why change it if Scotland goes? Although the "United Kingdom of Great Britain [and NI]" might be a bit of a problem as a name.

For the record, based on the current economic climate, the current government both in the UK and in Scotland and the economic arguments in favour of an independent low-tax Scotland at the moment I'd vote Yes.

I have no sentimental attachment to the UK. Nor, as proud a Scot as I am, have a sentimental attachment to a 'romanticised' independence. Whoever makes the most realistic argument with regards the state of the Scottish economy and the tax system under either scenario will win my vote.

However, the more two-bit commentators 'down south' gripe about the supposed gold paved streets of Scotland, and the difference in policy and priority as the result of devolution (if you want to moan about student deals, free long term care, free prescriptions etc be angry at the priorities of your government, not ours) and, heaven forbid that the rest of the UK somehow gets a say in whether or not to let us go, then my national pride does begin to show.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Presumably several different options would be on the ballot [qm]. Only, putting all their eggs in one question (so to speak) did the PQ a huge amount of damage in the early '80's (and had Trudeau not greatly miscalculated not so long after, would have taken much, much longer to recover). After all, independence being defeated, but even-more-devolution-in-some-other-areas could be spun as a draw quite easily.
Late 2010 has been suggested for a referendum on turning the Assembly into a Parliament down here, btw. The political motivation behind both is a little too obvious (ie; that people would be more likely to vote for a greater degree of seperation from England if the Tories are in charge at Westminster. Therefore...) but fits in with the general pattern of when referendums have been called in Britain.

[Third Party]

Probably poor timing for the SNP and other pro-independence forces; the electorate will have recently let off steam by kicking Labour really hard in May. Then again, it's hard to see them getting away with a referendum during 2009 or early in 2010, so I suppose it's a political necessity.

The Tories are a small party in Scotland (and Wales). In fact, the Tories winning the next general election in the UK will only help the yes for independence vote win the referendum. Scotland is undeniably to the left of England (A.K.A. Tory England).

Although the "United Kingdom of Great Britain [and NI]" might be a bit of a problem as a name.

Hehe, hopefully one day it will return to being just the "Kingdom of England."

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Afleitch, I can't stand the idea of the end of Britain, but of course I don't live there, and I never have. But I have to ask you as the only real conservative Briton on the forum, we're in the midst of seeing Ireland being kicked around and disrespected, their rejection of the Constitution being ignored. We can only expect the EU to further expand it's powers in the coming years, with the backdrop of "climate crisis" and
"financial crisis" allowing leftist policies seep into every aspect of life. Can't you see little Scotland on it's own getting the same treatment or worse from the EU?


For example, in the current "energy crisis" can't you see big bad Brussels in 5 years taking your North Sea oil and using it for "everyone"?

[afleitch]

Why November 2010?

Because it's the after the last possible date for a UK General Election

A poll has given some weight to something I've been thinking for a long time. Namely that  You Gov poll indicates that up to a quarter of Scots would be more likely to vote for independence if the Conservatives win the next general election. The poll showed 34% support for independence, 50% opposed and the remainder undecided.

More soon when I have time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why November 2010?

Because it's the after the last possible date for a UK General Election

A poll has given some weight to something I've been thinking for a long time. Namely that  You Gov poll indicates that up to a quarter of Scots would be more likely to vote for independence if the Conservatives win the next general election. The poll showed 34% support for independence, 50% opposed and the remainder undecided.

More soon when I have time.

The same basic date has been floating around for a referendum on turning the Assembly into a Parliament out here; and for the same reason. It may also determine when, exactly, Rhodri retires. He'll probably go next year, but he may want to stay on to guide the referendum through. In theory it's a much better chance of success than an Independence referendum in Scotland, but the tendency of the Welsh electorate to swing towards the status-quo in such votes is now well established.

[afleitch]

Why November 2010?

Because it's the after the last possible date for a UK General Election

A poll has given some weight to something I've been thinking for a long time. Namely that  You Gov poll indicates that up to a quarter of Scots would be more likely to vote for independence if the Conservatives win the next general election. The poll showed 34% support for independence, 50% opposed and the remainder undecided.

More soon when I have time.

The same basic date has been floating around for a referendum on turning the Assembly into a Parliament out here; and for the same reason. It may also determine when, exactly, Rhodri retires. He'll probably go next year, but he may want to stay on to guide the referendum through. In theory it's a much better chance of success than an Independence referendum in Scotland, but the tendency of the Welsh electorate to swing towards the status-quo in such votes is now well established.

Is there a link to a working paraper on that? I think, on a personal level Wales should be granted a full Parliament. Devolution is a process, not an end. Of course, as I've mentioned here before the Assembly, proportionally should expand to 80 members. That would mean a 40/40 split between constituencies and regions (if that system remains) Or else there could be an increase in constituencies (hint hint)

I am pleased that Gordy has given serious reconsideration to his opposition for increased fiscal autonomy as the block grant from Westminster while generous, is unfair. I really want an end to 'Arse of Enfield' comments in papers who seems to think that every time someone in Scotland goes to the loo 'England pays for it'

Henry McLeish has also came out in favour of the need to the UK to federalise which is a debate that is worth having.

[minionofmidas]

Silly question, Al.

If such a referendum included an option of full independence for Wales,

a) quite how puny would the puny percentage voting for independence be?
b) might including that option actually help rather than hurt the cause of greater devolution?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

a) quite how puny would the puny percentage voting for independence be?

Hard to say as it would depend on the campaign. But around 10% or so is probably as high as it'd be likely to get, assumimg a reasonable turnout (it would be higher if it were low. But it wouldn't be, not with that option on the ballot). Polls do sometimes show higher figures, but then Welsh polls are crap and usually overestimate the Nat side of things (except, comically with hindsight, in 1999). If the campaign for it was really, really, really awful (so bad that it turns off people up this way) the percentage could be under 5%.

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It would cause turnout to be higher*. That's about it, really.

But the general effect would be to panic people; remember that the titanic "no" vote in 1979 was caused mostly by people being scared of the remote-to-non-existent possibility of Quebec-style language laws. In some ways Wales is fundamentally rural (even the industrial areas) and gossip spreads fast (and is often believed). There's also no real national media to speak of, not one that ordinary people pay any attention to, so there's not much to counter that tendency.

*Though... maybe that wouldn't be a good thing as the boost in turnout would come mostly from areas close to the border.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a link to a working paraper on that?

Best place to go would be here: http://new.wales.gov.uk/awcsub/awchome/?lang=en

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Shockingly, I agree

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The current system doesn't really work does it; the balance is all wrong (as the events of last year showed pretty clearly).

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Hint taken

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Now, I've never heard that term before. But I don't read the papers as much as I used to. Still, I think that one way to make people shut up about that (along with changing the system) would be to tell people how things work in, say, Canada.

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Federalisation is the obvious solution to the constitutional mess. The trouble is that attempts to move in that direction (since the referenda of a decade ago anyway) have been a bit too ham-fisted (thinking of the North East referendum fiasco here).

[afleitch]

Probably worth and update here;

http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2487786.0.scotland_on_a_knifeedge.php

Scotland on a knife-edge

POLL EXCLUSIVE: 38% support independence 40% oppose it By Tom Gordon and Paul Hutcheon

SUPPORT FOR independence has hardened in the face of the global recession, despite Labour predictions that the crisis would see more Scots turning to the Union for protection.

The latest TNS System Three survey for the Sunday Herald found support for leaving the union rose three points during the last quarter, while opposition to a separate Scottish state fell to its lowest level since the poll began 18 months ago.

The findings suggest the public has ignored Labour warnings that a breakaway Scotland would be doomed to join Iceland in the "arc of insolvency".
 
The poll was taken after opposition parties initially voted down the SNP government's budget on February 28. Voters were reportedly unimpressed that MSPs could not agree a budget despite the country suffering the worst recession in decades.

The poll asked 971 adults how they would vote in a referendum on whether the Scottish government should open negotiations with Westminster on independence.

Support for commencing talks on separation was 38%, compared to 35% in October, while opposition was 40%, compared to 43%.

The individual poll aside, with the SNP still committed to pursuing a referendum I am beginning to believe that the chances of a Yes vote are increasing. Much of this is circumstantial of course. However with an SNP administration, a year of the 'blame game' Labour out of office and the Tories in then the chances look good.