Scottish Independence Referendum: 30th November 2010

[afleitch]

Some quite unexpected news. Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander has backed calls for a referendum on Scottish independence, one year earlier than Salmond's expected date; next year rather than 2010.

The Scotsman says

"I don't fear the verdict of the Scottish people – bring it on," Ms Alexander said yesterday. Sources close to the Scottish Labour leader revealed she had been considering the major policy reversal for some time but had wanted to discuss it with colleagues at Holyrood and Westminster – including Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister – before reaching a final decision.

Ms Alexander has now made that decision and given her support to a referendum as early as next year, although she believes it is wrong to wait until 2010, as the SNP wants.Mr Brown is cautious about backing a referendum. However, The Scotsman understands the Prime Minister has not made a decision on the issue yet.''

This is significant. Disregarding the question as who has the right to move for a referendum, Holyrood or Westminster, without Labour support in either chamber any move would have been unlikely.

Of course, while Wendy wishes to call Salmond's bluff, it could backfire. Opinion polls on independence are iffy, and grossly dependent on the wording, with YES support ranging from 20-55%. Should we find ourselves in 2009, with a more unpopular government, a popular SNP administration at Holyrood and a worsening economy a strong economic case for independence could resonate with voters.

What happens if we vote yes...?

Hopefully, watch this space.

[Harry Hayfield]

Working on the following asumption:
YES SNP
NO Con Lab Lib Dem
Unsure: Green Independents

then based on the Scottish Election in 2007 we are looking at this

YES: 33%
NO: 65%
Unsure: 2%
Referendum Rejected by a margin of 32%

[The Mikado]

Afleitch, I thought you were against Independence.

Besides, the Union Jack without the Cross of St. Andrews but with the Cross of St. Patrick and the Cross of St. George would look pretty damn ugly.

[Silent Hunter]

Afleitch, I thought you were against Independence.

He is.

[Umengus]

Working on the following asumption:
YES SNP
NO Con Lab Lib Dem
Unsure: Green Independents

then based on the Scottish Election in 2007 we are looking at this

YES: 33%
NO: 65%
Unsure: 2%
Referendum Rejected by a margin of 32%

lol

Please Do the same with EU referendum in France in 2005.

[Verily]

Smart move on Alexander's part, probably the only good political decision she's made. The Greens are pro-independence, btw, Harry, and so is Margo MacDonald (most vehemently so in the Scottish Parliament, actually).

[The Man From G.O.P.]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=75060.msg1541684#msg1541684




Seems like a good idea.

[afleitch]

Oh dear...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7387669.stm

[The Mikado]

Does Labour want to lose the next election?

[Verily]

Okay, I take back it being a good move. Not consulting with the Parliamentary Labour Party was phenomenally stupid.

I'm sure Labour doesn't actually want to lose the election, but they just really have no idea what to do with a serious opposition. After all, the weakness of the Tories meant Labour governed essentially without major opposition until at least 2005 with the exception of Lib Dem criticism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amusing that this only really hit the so-called "national" media when it emerged that there were Westminster implications.

Does Labour want to lose the next election?

Some junior ministers with safe seats certainly do, in private. As is always the case. But I think the whole constitutional issue is of more importance than which party leader gets to sit in no. 10 for the next four or so years after the next election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Okay, I take back it being a good move. Not consulting with the Parliamentary Labour Party was phenomenally stupid.

Maybe so, but I don't see why she had to do so. More "independence" for regional wings of the party will, eventually, turn out to be a good thing.

[minionofmidas]

Does Labour want to lose the next election?

Perhaps the correct question to ask is:

Does England want to lose the next Independence Referendum?

[Verily]

Okay, I take back it being a good move. Not consulting with the Parliamentary Labour Party was phenomenally stupid.

Maybe so, but I don't see why she had to do so. More "independence" for regional wings of the party will, eventually, turn out to be a good thing.

Eventually, yes, but Scottish Labour is most certainly a subsidiary of British Labour at this point.

[afleitch]

For the record, while I'm undecided, the current lot in Holyrood and the pleasing sounds from Scottish business and the far better than expected economic performance in the last two quarters would probably lead me to vote 'Yes' if sustained through to 2010.

[Verily]

For the record, while I'm undecided, the current lot in Holyrood and the pleasing sounds from Scottish business and the far better than expected economic performance in the last two quarters would probably lead me to vote 'Yes' if sustained through to 2010.

Do you think that view is widespread among Scottish Conservatives? (Or other groups, for that matter?)

[afleitch]

For the record, while I'm undecided, the current lot in Holyrood and the pleasing sounds from Scottish business and the far better than expected economic performance in the last two quarters would probably lead me to vote 'Yes' if sustained through to 2010.

Do you think that view is widespread among Scottish Conservatives? (Or other groups, for that matter?)

Widespread? Yes. Voiced? No.

We wouldn't survive independence as a party. We'd simply fragment mostly to the SNP, some to Labour and others to the Liberals and probably retain a rump Tory party that would survive before fading. It would be split along ideological and local/regionalurban/rural lines.

[Verily]

Why would the SNP survive? Independence is their raison d'etre; surely independence would mean the party folds within a decade.

Or else morph into a right-wing populist party that draws away many of the less palatable Conservative supporters. So maybe I see what you mean.

[afleitch]

Why would the SNP survive? Independence is their raison d'etre; surely independence would mean the party folds within a decade.

Or else morph into a right-wing populist party that draws away many of the less palatable Conservative supporters. So maybe I see what you mean.

The SNP have a far stronger base now, I can't see them folding, but yes they would morph into the dominant centre-right party. Their new raison d'etre would simply be The Nation and the economic success of the Nation.

[12th Doctor]

FREEEEEEEEEDOOOOOOOOOOMMMM!!!!

[minionofmidas]

For the record, while I'm undecided, the current lot in Holyrood and the pleasing sounds from Scottish business and the far better than expected economic performance in the last two quarters would probably lead me to vote 'Yes' if sustained through to 2010.

Do you think that view is widespread among Scottish Conservatives? (Or other groups, for that matter?)

Widespread? Yes. Voiced? No.

We wouldn't survive independence as a party. We'd simply fragment mostly to the SNP, some to Labour and others to the Liberals and probably retain a rump Tory party that would survive before fading. It would be split along ideological and local/regionalurban/rural lines.

Any chance of a surviving rump Conservative & Unionist Party calling to undo Independence?

[afleitch]

Any chance of a surviving rump Conservative & Unionist Party calling to undo Independence?

[/quote]

Yes, mostly the 'Orange' wing, which is only active in a few local areas in the west of Scotland (a few 'play about' in the SNP actually). Most of their supporters formed the Scottish Unionist Party, which was a front for the Orange Order and struggles to perform anywhere it stands. Such parties are cultural more than anything else. I can't see 'undoing independence' being strong enough and defined enough to forge a strong party around it.

[minionofmidas]

Any chance of a surviving rump Conservative & Unionist Party calling to undo Independence?

Yes, mostly the 'Orange' wing, which is only active in a few local areas in the west of Scotland (a few 'play about' in the SNP actually). Most of their supporters formed the Scottish Unionist Party, which was a front for the Orange Order and struggles to perform anywhere it stands. Such parties are cultural more than anything else. I can't see 'undoing independence' being strong enough and defined enough to forge a strong party around it.
[/quote]I dimly recall them doing decently in the speaker's constituency in 2001 (ie with no Tory present).

[Hash]

Any chance of a surviving rump Conservative & Unionist Party calling to undo Independence?

Yes, mostly the 'Orange' wing, which is only active in a few local areas in the west of Scotland (a few 'play about' in the SNP actually). Most of their supporters formed the Scottish Unionist Party, which was a front for the Orange Order and struggles to perform anywhere it stands. Such parties are cultural more than anything else. I can't see 'undoing independence' being strong enough and defined enough to forge a strong party around it.

I dimly recall them doing decently in the speaker's constituency in 2001 (ie with no Tory present).
[/quote]

5.3% in 2001, bit lower in 05.

[afleitch]

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/Brown-humiliates-Alexander.4071458.jp

I almost feel sorry for Wendy. But what Brown wants, Brown gets no matter how many career's he has to ruin.