LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election

[Kevinstat]

Anyone know what Ashley Casey's support block is, other than voters who don't care about wasting their vote?  Her Politics1.com website link goes to a Green Party congressional candidate in New York State.  If Cazayoux gains some ground but the final result is within 3.8% either way, her vote could be greater than the margin of victory.

[Alcon]

It's not suspicious, guys, it's reporting patterns in the South. Light!

Yes, the racial demographics of the South are a lot of things, but suspicious is not one of them.

[Kevinstat]

cazayoux slightly gaining

More than slightly.

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
307 (60.0%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
28,350 46.44% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
29,841 48.88% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
290 .48% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
2,323 3.81% Ashley Casey  - 
244 .40% Randall T. Hayes  - 

[Verily]

Cazayoux now leads in East Baton Rouge with 121 of 314 in. If current patterns hold, Cazayoux wins the seat with over 50%.

[Verily]

Anyone know what Ashley Casey's support block is, other than voters who don't care about wasting their vote?  Her Politics1.com website link goes to a Green Party congressional candidate in New York State.  If Cazayoux gains some ground but the final result is within 3.8% either way, her vote could be greater than the margin of victory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5oeE8zzdD0

(No matter what her political views are, I suspect her supporters are Republicans who hate Jenkins but can't stand voting for Democrats.)

[Kevinstat]

Cazayoux now leads in East Baton Rouge with 121 of 314 in. If current patterns hold, Cazayoux wins the seat with over 50%.

Thanks for the info, Verily.

It will be interesting to see my party's candidate win a come from behind in the count to win, even though I know the votes were cast in the same range of time in every precinct.  Or were any polls kept open longer than usual.  That has happened in some Presidential primaries this year, although perhaps it won't in a special Congressional election where turnout is likely much lighter and running out of ballots is less likely (unless they greatly underestimated turnout and skimped on printing ballots).

[Verily]

Poor (read: black) areas always report late in the South.

[Storebought]

313 of 512 Precincts Reporting:

28,672    46.56%   "Don" Cazayoux    -
30,039   48.78%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins

Secretary of State

[Verily]

Outside of East Baton Rouge everything is in save one precinct in Livingston.

Anyone know anything about the part of Pointe Coupee in this district? The parish as a whole was marginal in 2004, but this part was intensely for Cazayoux.

[Kevinstat]

All precincts outstanding (at least according to the parish results page) are in East Baton Rouge Parish (193 of 314 outstanding) except and 1 (of 63) in Livingston Parish.  Cazayoux doesn't have a majority in East Baton Rouge so the current pattern doesn't suggest he will overall, although it all comes down to where the remaining precincts are from.

Overall:

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
318 (62.1%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
29,511 46.95% "Don" Cazayoux  -  
30,425 48.40% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  -  
297 .47% Peter J. Aranyosi  -  
2,376 3.78% Ashley Casey  -  
248 .39% Randall T. Hayes  -  

[ChrisFromNJ]

All the parishes other than East Baton Rouge have reported. Cazayoux has underperformed in a few parishes, so he is going to have to do better than 51/49 that he is doing now in East Baton Rouge to win this district.

[Kevinstat]

Jenkins now leading by 283 votes in East Baton Rouge.  Still 1 precinct outstanding in Livingston Parish according to http://electionresults.sos.louisiana.gov/05030814519067.htm .

Overall:

U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
353 (68.9%) of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
32,400 46.22% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
34,428 49.11% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
313 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
2,692 3.84% Ashley Casey  - 
268 .38% Randall T. Hayes  - 

[Kushahontas]

32,400 46.22% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
34,428 49.11% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
313 .45% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
2,692 3.84% Ashley Casey  - 
268 .38% Randall T. Hayes

[Kushahontas]

WTF WHY ARENT THESE NUMBERS CHANGING

[Kevinstat]

The last Livingston Parish came in, pushing Jenkins's margin over 3% (49.23% to 46.11% with 354 of 512 precincts reporting).

[ChrisFromNJ]

With half of the precincts in in East Baton Rouge (156 of 314) reporting, Cazayoux will have to net a 2005 vote difference in the remaining 158 precincts yet to report in EBR.

[Kushahontas]

guys we might lose this

[Alcon]

Remaining precincts were about 50/50 in the 2004 election, doing a quick spreadsheet analysis.

[Nutmeg]

Is a runoff required if no candidate reaches a majority?

[MaxQue]

Remaining precincts were about 50/50 in the 2004 election, doing a quick spreadsheet analysis.

This is good for Casayoux or not?

[Alcon]

Remaining precincts were about 50/50 in the 2004 election, doing a quick spreadsheet analysis.

This is good for Casayoux or not?

It's OK for him.  Still too close to call.

[Kushahontas]

38,588 48.94% "Don" Cazayoux  - 
36,514 46.31% Louis "Woody" Jenkins  - 
362 .46% Peter J. Aranyosi  - 
3,066 3.89% Ashley Casey  - 
312 .40% Randall T. Hayes 


caza takes the lead!

[Kevinstat]

Outside East Baton Rouge:

17,986 (50.78%) Louis "Woody" Jenkins
16,068 (45.37%) "Don" Cazayoux
1,003 (2.83%) Ashley Casey
212 (0.60%) Peter J. Aranyosi
149 (0.42%) Randall T. Hayes

[HardRCafé]

41,527    47.15%   "Don" Cazayoux
42,449   48.20%   Louis "Woody" Jenkins

[Storebought]

It looks like Cazayoux has won this race. You could expect as much, with Jenkins acting in form as an ass and making an issue of the Democrat's last name.