NC-SurveyUSA: Obama's lead down to 5

[Tender Branson]

I´m pretty sure that the African-American vote will make up about 30-35% of the total vote. There are about 5.8 Mio registered voters in NC, about 3.9 of them are Democrats and Independents. According to the NC Board of Elections, there are 1.2 Mio registered African-American voters. Let´s assume that 95% of all registered African-Americans are also Democrats and Independents, their share would make up 30% of all registered Dems+Indies. Not all Independents will turn out in the Democratic primary, therefore the share will most likely be higher, likely at around 35%.

PS: Poll cross-tabs

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d4d1bc7e-32d4-438e-8143-75c8b25b3435

[Sam Spade]

bumping, so I can get an answer to my question... 

[WalterMitty]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

I'm confused.  Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black.  Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election?  The distinction is quite important.

nc didnt have a primary in 2004.

[Alcon]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

I'm confused.  Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black.  Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election?  The distinction is quite important.

I guess a bit over 3/4 of the 2004 General turnout is what we saw in Virginia, so I guess that's reasonable.

[Sam Spade]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

I'm confused.  Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black.  Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election?  The distinction is quite important.

nc didnt have a primary in 2004.

right, right.

[Sam Spade]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

I'm confused.  Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black.  Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election?  The distinction is quite important.

I guess a bit over 3/4 of the 2004 General turnout is what we saw in Virginia, so I guess that's reasonable.

I don't get it still.  And VA is not NC. 

My point is this - you can't be comparing Kerry's general election vote % to primary vote % because there are tons of white DINOs in NC, particularly in the SE, who are registered Democrat, but haven't voted for a Democrat in the general election since Carter, maybe.

[Alcon]

I know it isn't.  My point was, if blacks consisting only 3/4 (or less) their percentage of Kerry's vote is possible in Virginia, it definitely is in North Carolina.

[Sam Spade]

We'll see what happens, Alcon.  Especially after today's Sister Souljah moment - puts a few things into play.

[Eraserhead]

Didn't Edwards win NC in 2004?

[Alcon]

Didn't Edwards win NC in 2004?

Yes, as a caucus.

[Sam Spade]

Didn't Edwards win NC in 2004?

Yes, as a caucus.

Which means it's worth about as much as josh22 giving his own opinion.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Didn't Edwards win NC in 2004?

Yes, as a caucus.

Which means it's worth about as much as josh22 giving his own opinion.

Fcuk you b*tch

[Eraserhead]

Didn't Edwards win NC in 2004?

Yes, as a caucus.

Which means it's worth about as much as josh22 giving his own opinion.

Fcuk you b*tch

lolz

[Gustaf]

I don't know where everyone gets their numbers. However, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections latest numbers, which seem fairly updated, the break-down of the North Carolina primary electorate looks like this:

White Democrat:         41%
Blacks:                        30%
White Independents: 27%
Others:                         2%

So. If everyone turn out in equal numbers and Clinton wins White Democrats by the same margin as in Pennsylvania (2-1) blacks break their usual 90-10 for Obama and white indys split 50-50 (again, as in PA) and others do too it's almost exactly 55-45 for Obama. Doesn't seem completely unthinkable for Clinton to do a little better then?

[Verily]

Unlikely, IMO; whites are actually going to be better for Obama in North Carolina than in Pennsylvania, despite what conventional wisdom about the South would tell you. Mainly because there's no equivalent to the Pittsburgh area in North Carolina.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unlikely, IMO; whites are actually going to be better for Obama in North Carolina than in Pennsylvania, despite what conventional wisdom about the South would tell you. Mainly because there's no equivalent to the Pittsburgh area in North Carolina.

Mmm... yes and no. There are certainly a lot of industrial townships but, of course, many of these tend to be historically Republican. And historically based around textiles rather than being founded on iron-steel-coal. And with very low rates of unionisation (legacy of the failed strike of 1934).

[Gustaf]

Since this is a good a thread as any I'll use this one to note that there seems to be definite Clintomentum going on in North Carolina (yes, that's right, I made up yet ANOTHER silly pun on momentum. So kill me.)

Of course, Obama has over-performed in most of the Southern states he's won compared to polling so I'm not holding my breath yet. I always expected NC to end up in single digits though and that is not looking unlikely right now.

[minionofmidas]

I don't know where everyone gets their numbers. However, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections latest numbers, which seem fairly updated, the break-down of the North Carolina primary electorate looks like this:

White Democrat:         41%
Blacks:                        30%
White Independents: 27%
Others:                         2%

So. If everyone turn out in equal numbers and Clinton wins White Democrats by the same margin as in Pennsylvania (2-1) blacks break their usual 90-10 for Obama and white indys split 50-50 (again, as in PA) and others do too it's almost exactly 55-45 for Obama. Doesn't seem completely unthinkable for Clinton to do a little better then?

Why should White Independents turn up in equal numbers to White Democrats and Blacks? That makes no sense.

[agcatter]

There's a rumor this morning that a new Mason Dixon poll about to be released out of North Carolina that shows Obama +7 in the state.  IF that is so I'd say that's sounds about right.  Mason Dixon has a very good record as a state poller and has polled NC a good bit.

It was just a rumor on another site, but it seemed plausable.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database link: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080428019

[Gustaf]

I don't know where everyone gets their numbers. However, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections latest numbers, which seem fairly updated, the break-down of the North Carolina primary electorate looks like this:

White Democrat:         41%
Blacks:                        30%
White Independents: 27%
Others:                         2%

So. If everyone turn out in equal numbers and Clinton wins White Democrats by the same margin as in Pennsylvania (2-1) blacks break their usual 90-10 for Obama and white indys split 50-50 (again, as in PA) and others do too it's almost exactly 55-45 for Obama. Doesn't seem completely unthinkable for Clinton to do a little better then?

Why should White Independents turn up in equal numbers to White Democrats and Blacks? That makes no sense.

Of course it doesn't. Where did I say that it did?
Give me a decent assumption and I'll work with it...