NC-SurveyUSA: Obama's lead down to 5

[Tender Branson]

A new SurveyUSA poll will show Clinton pulling within 5% of Obama. Among Whites the poll will show her leading by 31% after 23% last week ... Later more.

[Wiz in Wis]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that they're wrong

[Umengus]

operation chaos!!!

[Alcon]

Obama 49% (-1)
Clinton 44% (+3)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

SUSA has always had Obama consistently lower than the other pollsters here.

[ChrisFromNJ]

SUSA has always had Obama consistently lower than the other pollsters here.

Yet they have the best record of any pollster around this primary season...

[Gustaf]

I remember when SUSA showed Obama doing better than other pollsters did and was considered "the best primary pollster"

Those were the days...

5 is almost certainly wrong. It does look like Clinton is having the momentum though and an MoE result (something like +8 or +10) is not out of the question. Outlier, but perhaps not terribly much so.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

SUSA has always had Obama consistently lower than the other pollsters here.

Yet they have the best record of any pollster around this primary season...

Up until recently the did. Now they're just going crazy.

Their numbers in Indiana, while about what I'd expect are at odds with everyone else and also shows a rather ridiculous 14 point swing from their last poll.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Where are you getting this info? Nothing is on the SurveyUSA webpage.

[Alcon]

Where are you getting this info? Nothing is on the SurveyUSA webpage.

There's an affiliate TV station in North Carolina that accidentally leaked it.  It's real.

SUSA is a great pollster, but their Indiana swing worries me (even if it was an odd poll) and they have a history this season of undercounting Southern blacks.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This is not good news for Obama. If Hillary wins North Carolina and Indiana, the tides will turn. I expect the superdelegates will begin to move in her direction. NC may be more important to Obama than Indiana. He must win NC.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I think Survey USA releases some wacked out polls actually...

Obama will win here by 15, easily. 

[Joe Republic]

This is not good news for Obama. If Hillary wins North Carolina and Indiana, the tides will turn. I expect the superdelegates will begin to move in her direction. NC may be more important to Obama than Indiana. He must win NC.

The questionable validity of this poll aside, I'm more interested by your expectations regarding the superdelegates.  It might be worth pointing out that despite winning four of the last seven states (three of which were in big states that garnered a great deal of attention), Obama has won 39 superdelegates to Clinton's 15 in the same timespan.

[Mr.Phips]

There is no way Hillary wins a state where close to 40% of the primary electorate is black.  Even if he only got 35% of the white vote, an amount even lower than in PA or OH, he would get 57% of the vote.  Hillary would need more than 75% of the white vote to win here. 

[Alcon]

This is why I'm skeptical.

Assume the black vote is 90% Obama (a solid assumption)

Assume the white vote is 2-to-1 Clinton (a generous assumption)

The electorate would have to be 70.2% white in order for Clinton to win, and 65.8% white for her to come within 5 points.

[RJEvans]

SUSA has always had Obama consistently lower than the other pollsters here.

Yet they have the best record of any pollster around this primary season...

Up until recently the did. Now they're just going crazy.

Their numbers in Indiana, while about what I'd expect are at odds with everyone else and also shows a rather ridiculous 14 point swing from their last poll.

The large swing in the IN poll is a result of different methods used to collect data. The method used for the Downs Center, which showed Obama leading by 5, is completely different than what SUSA usually use. The good news for Obama supporters is that the SUSA poll, which uses the usual method, shows Clinton's lead down fom 16.

[agcatter]

Obama will probably win by 10 or so.

Clinton takes Indiana by 7 or 8.

[Sam Spade]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

[Alcon]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

[Mr.Phips]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

Im pretty sure the black vote actually made up 54% of Kerry's total vote. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is not good news for Obama. If Hillary wins North Carolina and Indiana, the tides will turn. I expect the superdelegates will begin to move in her direction. NC may be more important to Obama than Indiana. He must win NC.

Aside from what Joe pointed out, Hillary needs roughly 74% of remaining superdelegates to win it. And this isn't even taking into account Pelosi and co. and the add-ons, for whom the selection mechanism benefits. Hillary needs more than a simple majority of remaining superdelegates.

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

Let's see when the poll is actually released what the crosstabs look like. I wouldn't be surprised if they have some wacky subsample like Hillary winning a quarter of blacks or something.

[Sam Spade]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

I'm confused.  Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black.  Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election?  The distinction is quite important.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This is not good news for Obama. If Hillary wins North Carolina and Indiana, the tides will turn. I expect the superdelegates will begin to move in her direction.

If Obama isn't the nominee, then the Dem base riots (a repeat of the Rodney King riots, the Watts riots, and the 1968 Dem convention rolled into one), and then the Dems lose in Nov.

If Obams loses IN and NC - big if - then Hillary wins the popular vote and she and her supporters are not going to be talked down and she will take it to the floor of the convention and a sizable chunk of her support will not vote for Obama in Nov.

And if Obama is the nominee and Wright keeps making speeches, then the Dem's lose in Nov.

Basically, history is on the Dems' side in 2008 and they should win easily, but the undercurrents of in-fighting and racist preachers could easily undo them.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This is not good news for Obama. If Hillary wins North Carolina and Indiana, the tides will turn. I expect the superdelegates will begin to move in her direction. NC may be more important to Obama than Indiana. He must win NC.

The questionable validity of this poll aside, I'm more interested by your expectations regarding the superdelegates.  It might be worth pointing out that despite winning four of the last seven states (three of which were in big states that garnered a great deal of attention), Obama has won 39 superdelegates to Clinton's 15 in the same timespan.

One of the candidates needs to win in a state where they weren't expected to win. If Obama wins Indiana and NC, then this is over and Hillary should drop out. If Hillary wins both Indiana and NC, then this will be anyone's ballgame and Obama may not be the presumptive nominee, and if Clinton wins Indiana and Obama in NC, then nothing changes.

[Wiz in Wis]

Look at this poll in Context. Survey USA has never given Obama more than a 10 point lead here. Really, this is only indicative of a 4 point swing to Clinton... not exactly earth shattering