IN: Research 2000: McCain +8 over Obama, +11 over Clinton in Indiana

[Alcon]

New Poll: Indiana President by Research 2000 on 2008-04-24

Summary: D: 41%, R: 52%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Sounds about right. I could see Obama getting the best IN result since Carter in 1976. I think 43-45% is possible.

[Padfoot]

This looks much more realistic than the Selzer poll. McCain should win here by about +8 at worst IMO.

[Eraserhead]

At least Obama would make him spend some money and maybe even a little time there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We need to be careful about assuming SO MUCH from one poll this early...

[Eraserhead]

We need to be careful about assuming SO MUCH from one poll this early...

There have been several polls.

[Gustaf]

We need to be careful about assuming SO MUCH from one poll this early...

There have been several polls.

Throwing out the ridiculous Selzer poll (which was smoking) we have McCain +10, +9, +8 and +7 (not in chronological order) for an average +8.5%. So, closer I guess, but not really close. It seems likely that McCain will win bigger here than Obama will in, say, Washington or New Jersey and I don't think Obama will have to fight much for those. Some posters here seems to have a somewhat flawed perception of what constitutes a battleground. Generally, any state where the margin is 5% or more will be mostly ignored. You didn't see Kerry fighting for Missouri or North Carolina in 2004, for instance.

[Alcon]

I'm not sure if it's fair to throw out the Selzer just because it feels wrong.  I mean, I'm quite sure that it is wrong, but Selzer is one of the best polling firms there is.  Her Des Moines Register polls are pretty legendary.  Polling in IN has been all over the map.  It's possible that she picked up on something.  Unlikely, though.

It's worth considering that many populous parts of Indiana are in the Chicago market and Obama is advertising there.  Being up (for now) is not totally inconceivable.