Democratic pickup in MS-01

[MarkWarner08]

Time for predictions:

My best guess:

Childers: 51.1%
Davis: 48.7%
Write-in: 0.2%

Most of the folks I called were disappointed by the tenor of Davis' advertising. Practially everyone thought Davis' ads were unfair and very few people were pleased that Dick Cheney had confused Southhaven with South Memphis.

Ouch. Did he really? South Memphis is a largely abandoned slum. Southaven is a generic suburb that has a good 10 years of being majority white left in it. That was really dumb.

Q: Monday you are going to be here -- on Monday -- in the state of Mississippi, and Greg Davis will be there, and you'll be in Senatobia, Hernando, and that area?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Yes, I think we are going to be. I'm not sure exactly. It's going to be someplace in the First District. I'm not sure exactly what part of it. South Memphis or --

Q: Don't worry about it.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Southaven, in Southaven.
http://cottonmouthblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/ms-01-dick-cheney-to-campaign-in-south.html

[Wiz in Wis]

Just think...later this week Mississippi may be 75% Democratic in the House!!

When was the last time Mississippi could boast of that statistic?

[Mr.Phips]

Just think...later this week Mississippi may be 75% Democratic in the House!!

When was the last time Mississippi could boast of that statistic?

 

Up until Mike Parker's party switch in 1995 it was 80% Democratic. 

[Meeker]

I'm gonna say Childers wins by four, but so much is going to depend on turnout I just don't know.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Q: Monday you are going to be here -- on Monday -- in the state of Mississippi, and Greg Davis will be there, and you'll be in Senatobia, Hernando, and that area?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Yes, I think we are going to be. I'm not sure exactly. It's going to be someplace in the First District. I'm not sure exactly what part of it. South Memphis or --

Q: Don't worry about it.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Southaven, in Southaven.
http://cottonmouthblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/ms-01-dick-cheney-to-campaign-in-south.html

I've seen some really retarded reasons for not voting for someone, but this may take the cake.

[Alcon]

This kinda reeks of desparation.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This kinda reeks of desparation.

Not to mention that it's really, really, really low.  Did Davis make a four second phone call to a phone sex line, too?

[memphis]

Q: Monday you are going to be here -- on Monday -- in the state of Mississippi, and Greg Davis will be there, and you'll be in Senatobia, Hernando, and that area?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Yes, I think we are going to be. I'm not sure exactly. It's going to be someplace in the First District. I'm not sure exactly what part of it. South Memphis or --

Q: Don't worry about it.

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Southaven, in Southaven.
http://cottonmouthblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/ms-01-dick-cheney-to-campaign-in-south.html

I've seen some really retarded reasons for not voting for someone, but this may take the cake.

You don't understand how much DeSoto County people don't like Memphis. Think BRTD in reverse.  Would you want somebody confusing your neighborhood for a blighted ghetto?

[Brittain33]

A snippet from today's NY Times, quoted primarily for the second sentence:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

I predict:

Childers - 51.86%
Davis - 47.83%

[7,052,770]

A snippet from today's NY Times, quoted primarily for the second sentence:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sounds like he's lowballing himself to try to increase D turnout.  Everything I've heard says that Childers is up by 5 points in both sets of internals.

[minionofmidas]

A snippet from today's NY Times, quoted primarily for the second sentence:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sounds like he's lowballing himself to try to increase D turnout.  Everything I've heard says that Childers is up by 5 points in both sets of internals.

Let's hope so... the bit about negative rating is certainly believable - this campaign seems to have gotten much uglier (on both sides) in the past three weeks.

[MarkWarner08]

DeSoto's coming in strong for Davis... It appears that the GOP GOTV efforts are working -- let's hope the Democrats can get a similar turnout in the rural areas.
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2008/may/13/desoto-voting-strong-early/

[minionofmidas]

What time do polls close?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You don't understand how much DeSoto County people don't like Memphis. Think BRTD in reverse.  Would you want somebody confusing your neighborhood for a blighted ghetto?

I wont vote for candidate A because person B (who is supporting candidate A) wasn't sure where a rally was and misspoke saying one town that started with "south" instead of another town that started with "south."

I know why people are supposedly upset, but it's genuinely a retarded reason to be upset.

[MarkWarner08]

What time do polls close?

7PM EST

[Sam Spade]

The key numbers to examine, and I will pull them up if I have time (or someone else does) are the numbers from the election two weeks ago.

Once a county gets to 100%, we should have an idea where the race is going.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Does anyone think Davis will win this afterall, he is heavily favoured after all.  I wouldn't be too surprised, but disappointed obviously, if Davis ended up narrowly ahead - he's had enough time to correct a minor slippage - although Childers should never have wound up winning 49% in Mississippi's First Congressional District, which leads me to think he is an intrinsically strong candidate anyway. 

[Brittain33]

Does anyone think Davis will win this afterall, he is heavily favoured after all.  I wouldn't be too surprised, but disappointed obviously, if Davis ended up narrowly ahead - he's had enough time to correct a minor slippage - although Childers should never have wound up winning 49% in Mississippi's First Congressional District, which leads me to think he is an intrinsically strong candidate anyway. 

I agree, I think many Democrats have been far too sanguine about this race since Childers did so well in the primary. The universe of potential Davis voters is and always has been so much larger than the universe of possible Childers voters. It could go either way. (Way to go out on a limb, I know.)

[minionofmidas]

The key numbers to examine, and I will pull them up if I have time (or someone else does) are the numbers from the election two weeks ago.

Once a county gets to 100%, we should have an idea where the race is going.

I'd wait til we have at least one western, "black belt whites", and one eastern, hillbillies county before I'd make any sort of deduction. Plus at least a notion of what's happening in De Soto.

[memphis]

You don't understand how much DeSoto County people don't like Memphis. Think BRTD in reverse.  Would you want somebody confusing your neighborhood for a blighted ghetto?

I wont vote for candidate A because person B (who is supporting candidate A) wasn't sure where a rally was and misspoke saying one town that started with "south" instead of another town that started with "south."

I know why people are supposedly upset, but it's genuinely a retarded reason to be upset.

Frankly, I tend to agree with you. It's like John Kerry ordering his cheesesteak with swiss. OMG, he's not from here1!!! Not to nitpick, but South Memphis is not a separate town, but a neighborhood in Memphis.

[Brittain33]

It makes Cheney's endorsement look goofier. Whether that matters depends on whether Cheney's endorsement was a plus in the first place.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think Davis wins by 4%.

[Brittain33]

Turnout in the first primary was considerably lower than in special elections held elsewhere this year and last, too. If the ceiling is raised considerably, that reshuffles the deck from the 49%-46% result we saw earlier.

[Sam Spade]

Turnout in the first primary was considerably lower than in special elections held elsewhere this year and last, too. If the ceiling is raised considerably, that reshuffles the deck from the 49%-46% result we saw earlier.

Oh, you're quite right.  But even increases in turnout can be re-measured to get a decent result.  We just need a good a county or two from either side.  It won't be perfect, but it'll be useful.