Democratic pickup in MS-01

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if there were any cross-party voters in the MN legislature.

Republicans - I can see only one likely case, and he actually lost reelection in 2004.
Democrats - Doubt it. There are some kind of conservative Democrats outstate, but overall everyone tends to be partisan. Wouldn't shock me if Collin Peterson voted for Bush though (and he's also notable as the only current Minnesota superdelegate not to endorse a candidate.)

[socaldem]

The Pubbies are just getting their ass kicked, time after time. There is not reason to pretend Dorian Grey is Prince Charming, because he isn't.

Every time it has been solely because we had a moronic candidate.  McCullough wouldn't have had a problem in MS-01.

In my opinion Nikki Tsongas* and Andre Carson were equally bad, if not worse candidates.  Somehow, though, they seemed to pull off wins...

(correction: I originally said Nikki Tinker...)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Pubbies are just getting their ass kicked, time after time. There is not reason to pretend Dorian Grey is Prince Charming, because he isn't.

Every time it has been solely because we had a moronic candidate.  McCullough wouldn't have had a problem in MS-01.

In my opinion Nikki Tsongas* and Andre Carson were equally bad, if not worse candidates.  Somehow, though, they seemed to pull off wins...

(correction: I originally said Nikki Tinker...)

Somehow? It's not surprising, both ran in districts were 51% of the population simply won't vote for a Republican in any circumstances. Neither one just got much more than that 51%, which isn't surprising.

[socaldem]

The Pubbies are just getting their ass kicked, time after time. There is not reason to pretend Dorian Grey is Prince Charming, because he isn't.

Every time it has been solely because we had a moronic candidate.  McCullough wouldn't have had a problem in MS-01.

In my opinion Nikki Tsongas* and Andre Carson were equally bad, if not worse candidates.  Somehow, though, they seemed to pull off wins...

(correction: I originally said Nikki Tinker...)

Somehow? It's not surprising, both ran in districts were 51% of the population simply won't vote for a Republican in any circumstances. Neither one just got much more than that 51%, which isn't surprising.

It's not surprising, both ran in districts were 51% of the population simply won't vote for a Republican in any circumstances in 2008.

I imagine that had special elections in exactlly the same districts with exactly the same non-incumbent candidates occurred 5 years ago or 5 years from now, the results may very well have been quite different!

That is exactly the point.  2008 looks to be a very bad year for the GOP and the special election losses are about more than crappy candidates.  They're about a crappy macro-environment and the losses will only make it worse.   Hopefully, it will spur a few more late GOP retirements and a few more last-minute dem recruits, as the GOP congresscritters continue to see their funding well evaporate as the Dem committees continue to be inundated with cash.  Mmmm...

I hope the reverse-coattails of Dem Congressional candidates make it a little easier for Obama.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The Pubbies are just getting their ass kicked, time after time. There is not reason to pretend Dorian Grey is Prince Charming, because he isn't.

Every time it has been solely because we had a moronic candidate.  McCullough wouldn't have had a problem in MS-01.

In my opinion Nikki Tsongas* and Andre Carson were equally bad, if not worse candidates.  Somehow, though, they seemed to pull off wins...

(correction: I originally said Nikki Tinker...)

I'm rooting for Nikki Tinker, because white liberals are annoying.

I'm not disagreeing that it is a bad GOP environment.  I am saying that if Glen McCullough were our nominee in MS-1, we would have won.  If Woody Jenkins weren't our nominee in LA-6, I'd imagine we would have won.  If ANYONE but Jim Oberweis were our nominee in the IL race, we would have won.

[Verily]

The Pubbies are just getting their ass kicked, time after time. There is not reason to pretend Dorian Grey is Prince Charming, because he isn't.

Every time it has been solely because we had a moronic candidate.  McCullough wouldn't have had a problem in MS-01.

In my opinion Nikki Tsongas* and Andre Carson were equally bad, if not worse candidates.  Somehow, though, they seemed to pull off wins...

(correction: I originally said Nikki Tinker...)

I'm rooting for Nikki Tinker, because white liberals are annoying.

I'm not disagreeing that it is a bad GOP environment.  I am saying that if Glen McCullough were our nominee in MS-1, we would have won.  If Woody Jenkins weren't our nominee in LA-6, I'd imagine we would have won.  If ANYONE but Jim Oberweis were our nominee in the IL race, we would have won.

You haven't lost LA-6 yet (Or MS-1, for that matter, although the numbers from this election say it's a matter of time)!

[HardRCafé]

If ANYONE but Jim Oberweis were our nominee in the IL race, we would have won.

That's exactly the kind of talk that got us Alan Keyes.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

If ANYONE but Jim Oberweis were our nominee in the IL race, we would have won.

That's exactly the kind of talk that got us Alan Keyes.

Touche.  Yes, it could have been worse.

[Sam Spade]

Look, everyone is probably right here in some way or form.  There's always more than one explanation for a problem.  If I had more time, I'd go into the details.

[memphis]

Look, everyone is probably right here in some way or form.  There's always more than one explanation for a problem.  If I had more time, I'd go into the details.

Vaguest post ever.

[minionofmidas]

Look, everyone is probably right here in some way or form.  There's always more than one explanation for a problem.  If I had more time, I'd go into the details.

Vaguest post ever.

He would have the necessary time if he didn't spend so much of his time being bitter towards guns and religion.

[Mr.Phips]

I heard the GOP is trying to tie Childers to Obama in this district.  I am the only that thinks that this could backfire and inflame the black community in the district(22% of voters) to come out and vote for Childers?

[MarkWarner08]

I heard the GOP is trying to tie Childers to Obama in this district.  I am the only that thinks that this could backfire and inflame the black community in the district(22% of voters) to come out and vote for Childers?

Possibly, but it could also succeed in tying Childers to the ever unpopular (in Mississippi) national Democratic Party.

Your referencing a tactic that's also be tested in LA-06. Can the House GOP use Obama as they have other liberal Democrats in the past? Does tying Childers to Obama send the same message as associating the MS Democrat with Ted Kennedy, for example?

We shall find out in a few weeks.

Update:
Greg Davis is up with a new ad tying Childers to Obama's controversial remarks about the voting patterns of lower-income voters. Davis also invoked Rev. Wright.

If this attack doesn't work in  Northern Mississippi in April 2008, it's unlikely this issue will remain salient come October 2008.

Here's the ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sPeQ2mKRro

[7,052,770]

I saw that pathetic ad on tv last night.  I will be very disappointed if it works.

[Tender Branson]

I saw that pathetic ad on tv last night.  I will be very disappointed if it works.

It may work. Why ?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Meeker]

The DCCC just dropped in more than $700,000 in the district on both pro-Childers and anti-Davis TV time. They've now spent more than $1.1 million on the race.

Your move, NRCC

[MarkWarner08]

The DCCC just dropped in more than $700,000 in the district on both pro-Childers and anti-Davis TV time. They've now spent more than $1.1 million on the race.

Your move, NRCC

The NRCC just added $350k in expenditures to this district. If Cazauouz wins as expected this weekend, both parties will view this district as a true barometer of strong the House GOP brand is. If Republicans can't hold an R+10 district with a candidate who has out raised the Democrat 2-1, they should expect the House field to expand exponentially over the coming weeks. Donors will begin to tighten their purse strings, pundits will initiate a feeding frenzy and Republican incumbents such as C.W. Young could bow out.

A Davis win will signal to Democrats that the sheer presence of Obama in the same ad frame as a Southern Democrat can cost that House hopeful votes. This could be the election when Obama is certified as politically radioactive in the South.

After years of being ignored by the national parties, Mississippi now hosts one of the most closely fought House special elections since the infamous 1985 Texas one that concluded with a 51%-49% Jim Chapman victory that postponed the Republican revolution by nearly a decade.

[Sam Spade]

This is where the action should be, primarily because the regional division here should be close to equivalent. (if that makes any sense - it's a poor sentence)

[MarkWarner08]

This is where the action should be, primarily because the regional division here should be close to equivalent. (if that makes any sense - it's a poor sentence)

So this is more of a regional (an oversimplification: the GOP exurbs such as DeSoto County vs. the more populist rural areas) than a partisan struggle?

[Sam Spade]

This is where the action should be, primarily because the regional division here should be close to equivalent. (if that makes any sense - it's a poor sentence)

So this is more of a regional (an oversimplification: the GOP exurbs such as DeSoto County vs. the more populist rural areas) than a partisan struggle?

Well, its kinda what I was trying to get at earlier, when I was being vague.  One can say that it's bad candidates that are causing these losses for the GOP.  One can also say that its the national party's horrible shape and image that is causing losses for the GOP.

But in a sense, the two are tied together.  In other words, if the national party's shape was better, you would get better candidates than Oberweis or Jenkins (two examples of bad candidates), who would not lose.  OR, the national party wouldn't be weak enough to drag down Oberweis or Jenkins, who would likely win in better environments (even though they're sub-par candidates).  But the combination of the two brings losses.

MS-01 is an example of different, but related factors at work.  I get no hint from what I've seen that Davis is a sub-par candidate.  But the national party's poor shape is causing the rural areas (historically Democrat) to revert back to form when faced with a candidate who is from a different region.  So, one could say that a poor regional candidate may cause this loss for the GOP.  And one could say the national party is involved in the possible loss.  But the two are interrelated.

I also fundamentally suspect that if the Hillary/Obama primary had not driven so many voters to play in the Democratic primary, McCullough would have beaten Davis in the primary runoff and thus be the candidate here because once you vote in one primary, you can't change over to the other primary for the runoff.  That's a factor no one is considering here, but is what I suspect may be the tipping point if it does occur.

[7,052,770]

I heard a radio ad today that went something like this:

Childers and his liberal friend Barack Obama are going to raise your taxes.  The Childers-Obama Tax Raise Plan will cost Mississippi taxpayers $2600 per year.

[Mr.Phips]

I heard a radio ad today that went something like this:

Childers and his liberal friend Barack Obama are going to raise your taxes.  The Childers-Obama Tax Raise Plan will cost Mississippi taxpayers $2600 per year.

I think im the only one that thinks the Republicans are making a big mistake by bringing Obama into this race.  The district has a 26% and growing black population and the only reason why Childers didnt win the seat outright was because there was low black turnout.  This could end up inflaming the black community in the district and causing them to turn out in very large numbers to vote against the Republican for attacking Obama, whom they overwhelmingly support. 

[7,052,770]

I heard a radio ad today that went something like this:

Childers and his liberal friend Barack Obama are going to raise your taxes.  The Childers-Obama Tax Raise Plan will cost Mississippi taxpayers $2600 per year.

I think im the only one that thinks the Republicans are making a big mistake by bringing Obama into this race.  The district has a 26% and growing black population and the only reason why Childers didnt win the seat outright was because there was low black turnout.  This could end up inflaming the black community in the district and causing them to turn out in very large numbers to vote against the Republican for attacking Obama, whom they overwhelmingly support. 

I'm sure they aren't running that ad on rap/hip-hop radio stations.

[Mr.Phips]

I heard a radio ad today that went something like this:

Childers and his liberal friend Barack Obama are going to raise your taxes.  The Childers-Obama Tax Raise Plan will cost Mississippi taxpayers $2600 per year.

I think im the only one that thinks the Republicans are making a big mistake by bringing Obama into this race.  The district has a 26% and growing black population and the only reason why Childers didnt win the seat outright was because there was low black turnout.  This could end up inflaming the black community in the district and causing them to turn out in very large numbers to vote against the Republican for attacking Obama, whom they overwhelmingly support. 

I'm sure they aren't running that ad on rap/hip-hop radio stations.

It depends on where its being aired.  If its being aired just on AM talk radio, you are probably right. 

[7,052,770]

I heard a radio ad today that went something like this:

Childers and his liberal friend Barack Obama are going to raise your taxes.  The Childers-Obama Tax Raise Plan will cost Mississippi taxpayers $2600 per year.

I think im the only one that thinks the Republicans are making a big mistake by bringing Obama into this race.  The district has a 26% and growing black population and the only reason why Childers didnt win the seat outright was because there was low black turnout.  This could end up inflaming the black community in the district and causing them to turn out in very large numbers to vote against the Republican for attacking Obama, whom they overwhelmingly support. 

I'm sure they aren't running that ad on rap/hip-hop radio stations.

It depends on where its being aired.  If its being aired just on AM talk radio, you are probably right. 

I heard it on a classic/new rock station (yeah, it really sucks to have to sit through Seether and Nickelback just to hear Led Zeppelin and The Who, but it's all we got in Starkville).
But yeah, I agree with your assessment that tying Childers to Obama isn't necessarily going to sink him.  I am optimistic about Childers's chance to win.