Meeker's disasterous attempt at counting (Now featuring accurate numbers!)

[afleitch]

Just for comparison - Results, if voting stopped now) under different systems.

IRV - Earl, Afleitch, Sensei, Lewis, and Rocky
Scottish - Colin, Earl, Afleitch, Lewis, and Rocky.
British Columbia - Colin, Earl, Afleitch, Lewis, and Rocky
Northern Ireland - Earl, Afleitch, Sensei, Lewis, and Rocky
Borda - Colin, Afleitch, Sensei, Lewis, and Rocky
Fractional Transfer - Earl, Afleitch, Sensei, Lewis, and Rocky

[minionofmidas]

I was gonna update for DWDL but he didn't post 15 times in the 56 days before poll opening.

It would have quite complicated effects, though: Pushing out Jake before SPC and as a result pushing out Bacon King instead of Colin. Haven't calculated how things go on after that. Quite likely that Colin might pull through though.

EDIT: I have calculated it by now, and yes, he would. I also had to distribute Colin's surplus to determine that Earl and not Sensei would take the fifth seat.

[Хahar 🤔]

Damn, we're in good shape. Two? I never expected that.

[afleitch]

I was gonna update for DWDL but he didn't post 15 times in the 56 days before poll opening.

It would have quite complicated effects, though: Pushing out Jake before SPC and as a result pushing out Bacon King instead of Colin. Haven't calculated how things go on after that. Quite likely that Colin might pull through though.

EDIT: I have calculated it by now, and yes, he would. I also had to distribute Colin's surplus to determine that Earl and not Sensei would take the fifth seat.

Ultimately at this stage in the game, no one is 'safe' A flurry of a dozen votes can change things alot

[minionofmidas]

New Quota!

Last voter: PBrunsel
Total poll: 42
Quota: 8

1st Count
Lewis: 6 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin
afleitch: 5 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch. 4 second pref.s
Rockefeller: 5 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut. 3 second pref.s, 4 third pref.s, 6 fourth pref.s
Earl: 5 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe. 3 second pref.s, 4 third pref.s, 1 fourth pref.
CultureKing: 4 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK
Sensei: 3 1: Sensei, Cookies, Meeker. 5 second pref.s
Bacon King: 3 1: Verily, Hugh, Bacon. 1 second pref.
SPC: 3 1: SPC, Brandon, PBrunsel. No second pref.s
Colin Wixted: 2 1: Colin, MAS. 12 second pref.s
Jake: 2 1: Phil, Sam. 2 second pref.s
Happy: 2 1: Matchu, Xahar. No second pref.s
Hashemite: 1 1: Hashemite. One second pref. One third pref.
KoBP: 1 1: KoBP. One second pref. No third pref.s
Willy Woz: 0.

Candidates tied are ordered based on lower preferences.
Nobody elected. Willy Woz eliminated.

3rd Count
To save space, I'm not showing the 2nd count after KoBP's elimination. Hashemite eliminated third.
Ties broken by previous rounds from here on.

Lewis: 6 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin
Rockefeller: 6 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite
afleitch: 5 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch
Earl: 5 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe
CultureKing: 4 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK
Sensei: 3 1: Sensei, Cookies, Meeker
Bacon King: 3 1: Verily, Hugh, Bacon
SPC: 3 1: SPC, Brandon, PBrunsel
Colin Wixted: 3 1: Colin, MAS, KoBP
Jake: 2 1: Phil, Sam
Happy: 2 1: Matchu, Xahar

4th and 5th Count
Same thing with Happy and Jake.

Lewis: 6 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin
Rockefeller: 6 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite
Earl: 6 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Xahar
afleitch: 5 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch
Sensei: 5 1: Sensei, Cookies, Meeker, Matchu, Sam
CultureKing: 4 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK
Colin Wixted: 4 1: Colin, MAS, KoBP, Phil
Bacon King: 3 1: Verily, Hugh, Bacon
SPC: 3 1: SPC, Brandon, PBrunsel

6th and 7th count
Same thing with SPC and Bacon King. Bacon King actually picks up a fourth vote (Brandon's) on the sixth count but it doesn't save him. Rockefeller reaches seven votes with SPC's elimination, Lewis and afleitch do with Bacon King's.

Rockefeller: 7 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite, PBrunsel
Lewis: 7 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin, Brandon
afleitch: 7 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, SPC, Hugh
Earl: 6 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Xahar
Colin Wixted: 6 1: Colin, MAS, KoBP, Phil, Verily, Bacon
Sensei: 5 1: Sensei, Cookies, Meeker, Matchu, Sam
CultureKing: 4 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK

8th count
CultureKing eliminated.

Lewis: 11 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin, Brandon, Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK
Rockefeller: 7 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite, PBrunsel
afleitch: 7 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, SPC, Hugh
Earl: 6 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Xahar
Colin Wixted: 6 1: Colin, MAS, KoBP, Phil, Verily, Bacon
Sensei: 5 1: Sensei, Cookies, Meeker, Matchu, Sam

Lewis elected. Surplus redistributed.

9th count
Lewis: 8 0.73: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin, Brandon, Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK
Rockefeller: 7.27 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite, PBrunsel. 0.27: Franzl
afleitch: 7.27 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, SPC, Hugh. 0.27: Brandon
Earl: 7.09 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Xahar. 0.27: Al, Red, Lewis, Opebo
Colin Wixted: 6.82 1: Colin, MAS, KoBP, Phil, Verily, Bacon. 0.27: Jas, Ebowed, Friz
Sensei: 5.55 1: Sensei, Cookies, Meeker, Matchu, Sam. 0.27: Verin, CK

Sensei eliminated. Rockefeller, afleitch, Earl, Colin elected without a quota.

[Хahar 🤔]

Aargh! I need to deliver some more votes for Sensei.

[Platypus]

Lewis, I'm not sure where you get your decimals from. My understanding is that each vote transfers at the pro-decimal point, so 6.125 and 6.6 both equal 6, and there is no carryover of any decimals beyond any one round. Maybe I'm just reading it wrong, though.

[minionofmidas]

Aargh! I need to deliver some more votes for Sensei.

Actually, your best bet is to eliminate Colin early.

[minionofmidas]

Lewis, I'm not sure where you get your decimals from. My understanding is that each vote transfers at the pro-decimal point, so 6.125 and 6.6 both equal 6, and there is no carryover of any decimals beyond any one round. Maybe I'm just reading it wrong, though.

Where are you getting that from?
This is all the legislation on surpluses:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In the case of the example, 3/11.

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Not relevant atm because nobody reaches a quota after receiving a surplus.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Since I'm not the SoFA, I took the liberty of rounding off to just two decimal places for presentational purposes.

Maybe you're thinking off the formula for calculating the quota? That includes a rounding-down provision.

[Хahar 🤔]

Aargh! I need to deliver some more votes for Sensei.

Actually, your best bet is to eliminate Colin early.

Same thing.

[afleitch]

Aargh! I need to deliver some more votes for Sensei.

Actually, your best bet is to eliminate Colin early.

Same thing.

Not quite. There is an easy way to do what you want to do. But I can't of course tell you that

[Bacon King]

Aw

[afleitch]

Aw

There is likely to be a flurry of votes before the polls close. No one is really safe and people like yourself are not ;out of it' either. My own chances of election are still on a knife edge.

[Јas]

New Quota!

Last voter: PBrunsel
Total poll: 42
Quota: 8

[....]

9th count
Lewis: 8 0.73: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin, Brandon, Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK
Rockefeller: 7.27 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite, PBrunsel. 0.27: Franzl
afleitch: 7.27 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, SPC, Hugh. 0.27: Brandon
Earl: 7.09 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Xahar. 0.27: Al, Red, Lewis, Opebo
Colin Wixted: 6.82 1: Colin, MAS, KoBP, Phil, Verily, Bacon. 0.27: Jas, Ebowed, Friz
Sensei: 5.55 1: Sensei, Cookies, Meeker, Matchu, Sam. 0.27: Verin, CK

Sensei eliminated. Rockefeller, afleitch, Earl, Colin elected without a quota.

FTR, I agreed entirely with this count.
My updated count here is my run through up to and including the 43rd vote, that of Peter Bell.

[SPC]

I actually have four votes.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I actually have four votes.

DWTL's vote is invalid, as he has not met the minimum statutory threshold of 15 posts between April 18 and Feb 22, 2008.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

One thing I'm not quite clear on.  If an candidate is eliminated and a voter has as their next preference a candidate that has already met quota, does that candidate's surplus get refigured, or skipped?  It makes a difference in the numbers at least since EarlAW meets quota and then is in a position to pick up transfered votes from Sensei.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

One thing I'm not quite clear on.  If an candidate is eliminated and a voter has as their next preference a candidate that has already met quota, does that candidate's surplus get refigured, or skipped?  It makes a difference in the numbers at least since EarlAW meets quota and then is in a position to pick up transfered votes from Sensei.

Essentially, what I did in my count is increased the value of all EarlAW's transfer votes from 1/10 vote to 2/11 vote.

[Јas]

One thing I'm not quite clear on.  If an candidate is eliminated and a voter has as their next preference a candidate that has already met quota, does that candidate's surplus get refigured, or skipped?  It makes a difference in the numbers at least since EarlAW meets quota and then is in a position to pick up transfered votes from Sensei.

I had intended to have it such that persons already deemed elected should not receive additional votes thereafter. However, I'll grant that the wording of the Act is not absolutely clear on this point and is probably open to interpretation.

It's something which should probably be clarified in the Act. I intend to draft an amendment to the Act anyway to make a number of points clearer and easier to follow.

[minionofmidas]

One thing I'm not quite clear on.  If an candidate is eliminated and a voter has as their next preference a candidate that has already met quota, does that candidate's surplus get refigured, or skipped?  It makes a difference in the numbers at least since EarlAW meets quota and then is in a position to pick up transfered votes from Sensei.

Essentially, what I did in my count is increased the value of all EarlAW's transfer votes from 1/10 vote to 2/11 vote.

How does that affect the result?
My heart skipped a beat when it saw that in your results as I'd never heard of such a thing before... although after some thought, it does make sense and somewhat decreases the randomness factor.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

One thing I'm not quite clear on.  If an candidate is eliminated and a voter has as their next preference a candidate that has already met quota, does that candidate's surplus get refigured, or skipped?  It makes a difference in the numbers at least since EarlAW meets quota and then is in a position to pick up transfered votes from Sensei.

Essentially, what I did in my count is increased the value of all EarlAW's transfer votes from 1/10 vote to 2/11 vote.

How does that affect the result?
My heart skipped a beat when it saw that in your results as I'd never heard of such a thing before... although after some thought, it does make sense and somewhat decreases the randomness factor.

I believe vote in question was Xahar's.  The "good news" is that Xahar didn't preference Culture King (but did preference yourself and Afleitch).  It seems to have the effect of boosting your vote total to the detriment of the rest of the liberal bloc.   Jas and I do not believe that Culture King would have placed higher than 6th as a result of the "glitch," but I'll be re-running the numbers tonight, just to re-verify (and to get an accurate "final" count).

Damnit, Xahar's vote goes from Rocky -> Lewis -> Afleitch.  I'm going to rerun the numbers tonight, and in the meantime, I sent Lewis and CultureKing both PMs detailing my initial impressions of the recalc.

[minionofmidas]

Like-a-Fishhook Totally Unofficial Election Coverage
Like-a-Fishhook does not believe its interpretation of the act to be the correct one - Like-a-Fishhook is an agnostic publication and does not believe anything, ever.
Like-a-Fishhook merely would like to point out that this is the result based on the interpretation it used at earlier counts.
Like-a-Fishhook is looking forward to covering any ensuing lawsuits.

Total poll: 52
Quota: 9

1st Count
Earl: 8 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Lief, Evilmex, Smash
CultureKing: 7 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK, Rocket, Boris, Jesus
Lewis: 6 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin. 9 second pref.s
afleitch: 6 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, Mr Mod. 4 second pref.s
Rockefeller: 5 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut
Colin Wixted: 4 1: Colin, MAS, Peter, TD
Bacon King: 3 1: Verily, Hugh, Bacon. 1 second pref., 8 third pref.s
Jake: 3 1: Phil, Sam, Jake. 1 second pref., 2 third pref.s
SPC: 3 1: SPC, Brandon, PBrunsel. No second pref.
Sensei: 2 1: Sensei, Meeker. 8 second pref.s
Happy: 2 1: Matchu, Xahar. 2 second pref.s
Hashemite: 2 1: Hashemite, Ernest. No second pref.s
KoBP: 1 1: KoBP
Willy Woz: 0.

Candidates tied are ordered based on lower preferences.
Nobody elected. Willy Woz eliminated.

2nd Count

KoBP eliminated. Ties broken by previous rounds from here on.

Earl: 8 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Lief, Evilmex, Smash
CultureKing: 7 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK, Rocket, Boris, Jesus
Lewis: 6 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin
afleitch: 6 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, Mr Mod
Rockefeller: 5 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut
Colin Wixted: 5 1: Colin, MAS, Peter, TD, KoBP
Bacon King: 3 1: Verily, Hugh, Bacon
Jake: 3 1: Phil, Sam, Jake
SPC: 3 1: SPC, Brandon, PBrunsel
Sensei: 2 1: Sensei, Meeker
Happy: 2 1: Matchu, Xahar
Hashemite: 2 1: Hashemite, Ernest

3rd Count
Hashemite eliminated.

Earl: 8 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Lief, Evilmex, Smash
CultureKing: 7 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK, Rocket, Boris, Jesus
Lewis: 6 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin
afleitch: 6 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, Mr Mod
Rockefeller: 6 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite
Colin Wixted: 5 1: Colin, MAS, Peter, TD, KoBP
Bacon King: 3 1: Verily, Hugh, Bacon
Jake: 3 1: Phil, Sam, Jake
SPC: 3 1: SPC, Brandon, PBrunsel
Happy: 3 1: Matchu, Xahar, Ernest
Sensei: 2 1: Sensei, Meeker

4th Count
Sensei eliminated.

Earl: 10 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Lief, Evilmex, Smash, Sensei, Meeker
CultureKing: 7 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK, Rocket, Boris, Jesus
Lewis: 6 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin
afleitch: 6 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, Mr Mod
Rockefeller: 6 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite
Colin Wixted: 5 1: Colin, MAS, Peter, TD, KoBP
Bacon King: 3 1: Verily, Hugh, Bacon
Jake: 3 1: Phil, Sam, Jake
SPC: 3 1: SPC, Brandon, PBrunsel
Happy: 3 1: Matchu, Xahar, Ernest

Earl elected.

5th Count
Earl's surplus redistributed.

Earl: 9 0.9: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Lief, Evilmex, Smash, Sensei, Meeker
CultureKing: 7 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK, Rocket, Boris, Jesus
Lewis: 6.3 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin. 0.1: Old Europe, Lief, Smash
Rockefeller: 6.1 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite. 0.1: Sensei
afleitch: 6 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, Mr Mod
Colin Wixted: 5 1: Colin, MAS, Peter, TD, KoBP
Happy: 3.5 1: Matchu, Xahar, Ernest. 0.1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, Evilmex, Meeker
Bacon King: 3.1 1: Verily, Hugh, Bacon. 0.1: TCash
Jake: 3 1: Phil, Sam, Jake
SPC: 3 1: SPC, Brandon, PBrunsel

6th count
SPC eliminated.

Earl: 9 0.9: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Lief, Evilmex, Smash, Sensei, Meeker
Rockefeller: 7.1 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite, PBrunsel. 0.1: Sensei
CultureKing: 7 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK, Rocket, Boris, Jesus
afleitch: 7 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, Mr Mod, SPC
Lewis: 6.3 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin. 0.1: Old Europe, Lief, Smash
Colin Wixted: 5 1: Colin, MAS, Peter, TD, KoBP
Jake: 4 1: Phil, Sam, Jake, Brandon
Happy: 3.5 1: Matchu, Xahar, Ernest. 0.1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, Evilmex, Meeker
Bacon King: 3.1 1: Verily, Hugh, Bacon. 0.1: TCash

7th count
Bacon King eliminated.

Earl: 9 0.9: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Lief, Evilmex, Smash, Sensei, Meeker
afleitch: 8 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, Mr Mod, SPC, Hugh
Rockefeller: 7.1 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite, PBrunsel. 0.1: Sensei
Colin Wixted: 7.1 1: Colin, MAS, Peter, TD, KoBP, Verily, Bacon. 0.1: TCash
CultureKing: 7 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK, Rocket, Boris, Jesus
Lewis: 6.3 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin. 0.1: Old Europe, Lief, Smash
Jake: 4 1: Phil, Sam, Jake, Brandon
Happy: 3.5 1: Matchu, Xahar, Ernest. 0.1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, Evilmex, Meeker

8th count
Happy eliminated.

Earl: 9 0.9: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Lief, Evilmex, Smash, Sensei, Meeker
Rockefeller: 9.3 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite, PBrunsel, Matchu, Xahar. 0.1: Sensei, Happy, Meeker
afleitch: 8 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, Mr Mod, SPC, Hugh
Colin Wixted: 7.1 1: Colin, MAS, Peter, TD, KoBP, Verily, Bacon. 0.1: TCash
CultureKing: 7 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK, Rocket, Boris, Jesus
Lewis: 6.6 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin. 0.1: Old Europe, Lief, Smash, Earl, benconstine, evilmex
Jake: 5 1: Phil, Sam, Jake, Brandon, Ernest

Rocky elected. Surplus cannot at this stage affect the count.
Jake eliminated.

9th count
Earl: 9 0.9: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Lief, Evilmex, Smash, Sensei, Meeker
Rockefeller: 9.3 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite, PBrunsel, Matchu, Xahar. 0.1: Sensei, Happy, Meeker
Colin Wixted: 9.1 1: Colin, MAS, Peter, TD, KoBP, Verily, Bacon, Phil, Jake. 0.1: TCash
afleitch: 9 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, Mr Mod, SPC, Hugh, Ernest
CultureKing: 8 1: Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK, Rocket, Boris, Jesus, Sam
Lewis: 7.6 1: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin, Brandon. 0.1: Old Europe, Lief, Smash, Earl, benconstine, evilmex

Colin and Afleitch elected. Even if whole redistributed surpluses flow to Lewis, the tiebreaker rule elects Culture King.

[Verily]

Interesting that all the JCP vote push managed to do was boot out their candidate most able to win over non-JCP voters.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Colin and Afleitch elected. Even if whole redistributed surpluses flow to Lewis, the tiebreaker rule elects Culture King.

Yeah, like I said in the PM I talked about earlier, it looks like this is the case—the incorrectly flowed vote from Xahar appears to have elected Culture King at the expense of Lewis Trondheim.

[afleitch]

Colin and Afleitch elected. Even if whole redistributed surpluses flow to Lewis, the tiebreaker rule elects Culture King.

Yeah, like I said in the PM I talked about earlier, it looks like this is the case—the incorrectly flowed vote from Xahar appears to have elected Culture King at the expense of Lewis Trondheim.

The tweaked computer programme I'm using confirms the same thing.