I just finished a paper on the 1997 British Parliamentary Elections.

[Keystone Phil]

I have to do this "seminar" on the '97 election tomorrow in my British politics class with my focus being on the Conservatives. We all know it was the greatest disaster for the Tories in almost 100 years. I concluded in my paper that there was basically no way for the Conservatives to win in 1997. I'm wondering if our forum Brits and anyone else that follows British elections feel the same way.

[Dan the Roman]

The unique thing about the 1997 elections is that they were held in the Major Government's fifth year in office. Normally governments do not wait that long to hold them and it is an indication of the fact that from 1993 onwards the Tories never got within 10 points of Labour. It was pretty clear the Tories were screwed from 1992 onwards. Ironically they actually had an uptick during the spring of 1997 and cut the Labour lead in half during the campaign. See this archive of campaign polls:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997/


In the end they were victims of an bias in the electoral system which is one of the most biased in the world. Its bias  means that it is almost impossible for Labour to be wiped out, and Labour will win a majority provided they are "only" 4-5% behind the Conservatives. In 1997 this bit them in the ass, but it was really on display last year.

Then the votes and seats were
1983
Con 43% 397 Seats
Labour 28% 209 Seats

1997
Labour 43% 418 Seats
Con      31% 165

2005
Labour 35% 356 Seats
Con      32% 198 Seats

So it takes a major Conservative lead to reach landslide margins, but only a minor Labour lead. So the Conservatives could have done a lot better on the popular vote lost by say 41-33 or 39-34, but it would not have made a noticeable impact on the seat distribution.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Couldn't have happened to a better guy either.

[minionofmidas]

The funniest part is that lots of Tories blamed John Major... but everybody else knew that John Major was by far the most popular figure left in that party (possibly excluding Ken Clarke, but he doesn't count.) and the Tories would have lost worse without him.

As to system bias: It happens when areas differ in turnout and tactical voting patterns disfavor one particularly bad party. The discrepancies in electorate sizes are actually slight.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As to system bias: It happens when areas differ in turnout and tactical voting patterns disfavor one particularly bad party. The discrepancies in electorate sizes are actually slight.

Basically. Maps of turnout typically mirror (though not entirely) maps of the Labour vote.

[afleitch]

The Tories were doomed to defeat. They didn't quite know by how much though. Some, even until the last day thought a Labour majority of 30-50, then one heave and the Tories get back in. Had we prepared for defeat in advance we probably wouldn't have wasted our energies as much as we did. Theres a lesson to be learned...

[The Man From G.O.P.]

The Tories were doomed to defeat. They didn't quite know by how much though. Some, even until the last day thought a Labour majority of 30-50, then one heave and the Tories get back in. Had we prepared for defeat in advance we probably wouldn't have wasted our energies as much as we did. Theres a lesson to be learned...

That is?

[Michael Z]

The Tories lost for numerous reasons.

 - Black Wednesday, which visibly undermined the Tories' reputation for handling the economy, arguably their last remaining trump card in the 1992 election.

 - Constant internal bickering over Britain's role in the EU, which undermined Major's cabinet (re. his "bastards"-remark).

 - Tony Blair's appeal to middle class voters, especially in the South east (which, throughout the 80s and most of the 90s, traditionally voted Tory).

 - Numerous scandals such as cash-for-questions. And not a week seemed to go by without a Tory being done for kerb crawling, accosting hookers and whatnot.

 - The Tories generally had a lousy image then. I remember the election very well and the Conservative Party was widely regarded as xenophobic, out-of-touch, incompetent, immoral, drunk with power, and generally nasty, and this is even a view a traditional Tory press (for instance Murdoch outlets like the Sun and the Times) agreed with.

[Keystone Phil]

The Tories lost for numerous reasons.

 - Black Wednesday, which visibly undermined the Tories' reputation for handling the economy, arguably their last remaining trump card in the 1992 election.

 - Constant internal bickering over Britain's role in the EU, which undermined Major's cabinet (re. his "bastards"-remark).

 - Tony Blair's appeal to middle class voters, especially in the South east (which, throughout the 80s and most of the 90s, traditionally voted Tory).

 - Numerous scandals such as cash-for-questions. And not a week seemed to go by without a Tory being done for kerb crawling, accosting hookers and whatnot.

 - The Tories generally had a lousy image then. I remember the election very well and the Conservative Party was widely regarded as xenophobic, out-of-touch, incompetent, immoral, drunk with power, and generally nasty, and this is even a view a traditional Tory press (for instance Murdoch outlets like the Sun and the Times) agreed with.

Yeah, I covered all that in my paper. 

[Michael Z]

The Tories lost for numerous reasons.

 - Black Wednesday, which visibly undermined the Tories' reputation for handling the economy, arguably their last remaining trump card in the 1992 election.

 - Constant internal bickering over Britain's role in the EU, which undermined Major's cabinet (re. his "bastards"-remark).

 - Tony Blair's appeal to middle class voters, especially in the South east (which, throughout the 80s and most of the 90s, traditionally voted Tory).

 - Numerous scandals such as cash-for-questions. And not a week seemed to go by without a Tory being done for kerb crawling, accosting hookers and whatnot.

 - The Tories generally had a lousy image then. I remember the election very well and the Conservative Party was widely regarded as xenophobic, out-of-touch, incompetent, immoral, drunk with power, and generally nasty, and this is even a view a traditional Tory press (for instance Murdoch outlets like the Sun and the Times) agreed with.

Yeah, I covered all that in my paper. 

Alright.