DCCC on the air in MS-01

[Meeker]

Another special election, another place to force the NRCC to spend money

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52YMJ5vBpyA

[Adlai Stevenson]

The DCCC is being quite adventurous considering that Bush carried MS-1 by 62%-37% in 2004. However, of the two open seats, it is the closer one, he carried MS-3 65%-34%.   

[Meeker]

Cook moved it from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican", so the DCCC isn't the only one who thinks it's in play.

[Tender Branson]

The DCCC is being quite adventurous considering that Bush carried MS-1 by 62%-37% in 2004.

They are not adventurous when you consider this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/04/14/house-democrats-campaign-arm-443-million-in-bank

[7,052,770]

Childers is catching on for some reason.  Perhaps its an us-vs.-them mentality against DeSoto County by the rest of MS-1.

[minionofmidas]

Childers is catching on for some reason.  Perhaps its an us-vs.-them mentality against DeSoto County by the rest of MS-1.

Why did you think the other Dem (what was his name again?) had a better chance? Is Childers not exactly a Dino?

[7,052,770]

Childers is catching on for some reason.  Perhaps its an us-vs.-them mentality against DeSoto County by the rest of MS-1.

Why did you think the other Dem (what was his name again?) had a better chance? Is Childers not exactly a Dino?

Well I just had thought Holland would be better since he's a known statewide figure because of his tenure as one of the leaders of the state legislature.
However, maybe Childers is better known in the North part of the state that I gave him credit for.
Or maybe he's just getting a lucky ride from the rest of North MS hating the Memphis suburbs (Childers' opponent is the former mayor of Southhaven).

[minionofmidas]

Childers is catching on for some reason.  Perhaps its an us-vs.-them mentality against DeSoto County by the rest of MS-1.

Why did you think the other Dem (what was his name again?) had a better chance? Is Childers not exactly a Dino?

Well I just had thought Holland would be better since he's a known statewide figure because of his tenure as one of the leaders of the state legislature.
However, maybe Childers is better known in the North part of the state that I gave him credit for.
Or maybe he's just getting a lucky ride from the rest of North MS hating the Memphis suburbs (Childers' opponent is the former mayor of Southhaven).

Yes. That much is obvious - I'm fairly sure McCullough would have coasted.

This is Childers' "on the issues" page - the whole thing, mind:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

   
I see nothing about "I'm 100% pro-life and pro-second amendment, btw" or anything in that mold. If he really wins or even keeps this very close, then that'd be mighty impressive.

[7,052,770]

Childers mentioned being "pro-gun and pro-life" in that ad fwiw.


This is from the clarionledger.com blog of Jere Nash, one of the more prominent Mississippi political analysts:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Padfoot]

Cook moved it from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican", so the DCCC isn't the only one who thinks it's in play.

CQ Politics has done the same.

[Mr.Phips]

Childers mentioned being "pro-gun and pro-life" in that ad fwiw.


This is from the clarionledger.com blog of Jere Nash, one of the more prominent Mississippi political analysts:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think the analysis is pretty accurate here.  The Childers campaign should look at Ronnie Musgrove's numbers here when he won this district by a big 55%-44% margin in the close 1999 governor's race.  The one big difference here is that unlike Musgrove, there is no way that Childers will run even in DeSoto county and that turnout will be as low in proportion to the rest of the district as it was in 1999.    Childers can lose by 2 to 1 in DeSoto, which he probably will as long he can carry the rural parts of the district with around 55% of the vote. 

[The Mikado]

Doable, but wouldn't bet on it.  Much better shot in LA-06.

[memphis]

Childers is catching on for some reason.  Perhaps its an us-vs.-them mentality against DeSoto County by the rest of MS-1.

Why did you think the other Dem (what was his name again?) had a better chance? Is Childers not exactly a Dino?

Well I just had thought Holland would be better since he's a known statewide figure because of his tenure as one of the leaders of the state legislature.
However, maybe Childers is better known in the North part of the state that I gave him credit for.
Or maybe he's just getting a lucky ride from the rest of North MS hating the Memphis suburbs (Childers' opponent is the former mayor of Southhaven).

Davis is the current mayor of Southaven.

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI - this is an ad which in FEC parlance is referred to as a coordinated advertisement.  In other words, it was funded by the DCCC and Childers, but probably mainly by Childers...  Why?

Although I can't tell you how much was spent here, FEC rules mandate that congressional committees can spend a maximum of $42,000 per election cycle on these types of ads.

[Nym90]

Obviously the Dems won't win this race, but when you have a massive money advantage, might as well give it a shot.

[Meeker]

Just FYI - this is an ad which in FEC parlance is referred to as a coordinated advertisement.  In other words, it was funded by the DCCC and Childers, but probably mainly by Childers...  Why?

Although I can't tell you how much was spent here, FEC rules mandate that congressional committees can spend a maximum of $42,000 per election cycle on these types of ads.

Do you happen to know how much airtime $42,000 can buy in Northern Mississippi? I imagine it's dirt cheap

[MarkWarner08]

FEC watchers caught this late-breaking DCCC IE. Looks like the D-Trip is now in for $126k more...
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00000935/333554/se

[7,052,770]

This is awesome.  A week from now, my state might be 75% Democratic in the House, and in 7 months, half Democratic in the Senate too!!! 

[Meeker]

FEC watchers caught this late-breaking DCCC IE. Looks like the D-Trip is now in for $126k more...
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00000935/333554/se

Excellent. I'm a little confused why they're focusing so much on next weeks vote though since it's going to go to a runoff.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Just FYI - this is an ad which in FEC parlance is referred to as a coordinated advertisement.  In other words, it was funded by the DCCC and Childers, but probably mainly by Childers...  Why?

Although I can't tell you how much was spent here, FEC rules mandate that congressional committees can spend a maximum of $42,000 per election cycle on these types of ads.

Do you happen to know how much airtime $42,000 can buy in Northern Mississippi? I imagine it's dirt cheap

In the Tupelo market, yes.  The Memphis market, no.  Most of the district's counties are in the Memphis DMA.

Memphis DMA:
http://www.truckads.com/Affiliate/Memphis.htm#map

Tupelo DMA:
http://www.truckads.com/Affiliate/Columbus_Tupelo_West_Point.htm

[minionofmidas]

8 out of 27 is "most" where, exactly?

[memphis]

I saw the ad last night. Typical, goofy, cartoonish over the top party ad accusing Davis of being a big spender.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

8 out of 27 is "most" where, exactly?

Well he might've meant that those 8 contain most of the district's population, but I haven't done the calculations to see if that's the case or not.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

8 out of 27 is "most" where, exactly?

Well he might've meant that those 8 contain most of the district's population, but I haven't done the calculations to see if that's the case or not.

Or perhaps I failed to inform myself before making a statement.

[minionofmidas]

8 out of 27 is "most" where, exactly?

Well he might've meant that those 8 contain most of the district's population, but I haven't done the calculations to see if that's the case or not.

I haven't actually checked, but I'm fairly sure they contain less than half but more than 8/27th of the population.  Probably closer to half.