Electoral College Tie Analysis

[Erc]

Michigan: (1)
MI-07: Mark Schauer, +9.4%, Tossup
MI-01: Bart Stupak, +7.8%, Safe D
MI-09: Gary Peters, +1.7%, Lean R

As Obama will likely win Michigan at large, it is unlikely that any of these will defect, regardless of how vulnerable they feel for 2010.

Minnesota: (4 for Deadlock, 5 to win)
MN-06: El Tinklenberg, +14.4%, Likely R
MN-02: Steve Sarvi, +9.0%, Likely R
MN-07: Collin Peterson, +12.4%, Safe D
MN-01: Tim Walz, +3.6%, Likely D
MN-03: Ashwin Madia, +2.9%, Tossup

As Obama will likely win the state anyway, Peterson is safe, and Tim Walz's district isn't strongly Republican, defections seem unlikely here.

Mississippi: (1 for Deadlock, 2 to win)
MS-04: Gene Taylor, +37.2%, Safe D
MS-01: Travis Childers, +25.3%, Tossup

There is a non-negligible possibility that Childers may defect (at least on the first ballot) should he win, throwing the state into deadlock.

Missouri: (2)
MO-04: Ike Skelton, +29.0%, Safe D
MO-09: Judy Baker, +18.0%, Lean R
MO-06: Kay Barnes, +14.9%, Lean R

If Democrats win either MO-09 or MO-06, the incoming freshmen may be tempted to abstain and throw the state into deadlock.  A Skelton defection seems highly unlikely.

Nevada: (2)
NV-02: Jill Derby, +16.2%, Likely R
NV-03: Dina Titus, +1.3%, Tossup

No meaningful defection seems to be a possibility.

New Hampshire: (1 for Deadlock, 2 to Win)
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter, +2.3%, Tossup
NH-02: Paul Hodes, -5.0%, Likely D

Should Hodes somehow be unseated, his opponent may be tempted to defect to Obama should he have won the state, ensuring a continued deadlock.

New Jersey:
Not Winnable by Defection.

New Mexico: (2)
NM-02: Harry Teague, +16.5%, Lean R
NM-01: Martin Heinrich, -3.2%, Tossup

Whoever replaces Wilson may be tempted to, at the very least, abstain, throwing the state into deadlock.  Should Teague win, whether he defects or not won't matter (I would be highly surprised if Teague won but Heinrich lost).

New York:
Not Winnable by Defection.

North Carolina: (3)
NC-10: Daniel Johnson, +34.1%, Likely R
NC-11: Heath Shuler, +14.4%, Safe D
NC-07: Mike McIntyre, +12.2%, Safe D
NC-08: Larry Kissel, +9.0%, Tossup
NC-02: Bob Etheridge, +8.6%, Safe D

A Heath Shuler abstention would throw the state into deadlock and is a possibility worth considering.

North Dakota: (1)
ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy, +27.4%, Safe D

Depending on how well McCain fares in the state, Pomeroy may consider an abstention or defection.

Ohio: (3 for Deadlock, 4 to Win)
OH-02: Victoria Wulsin, +27.9%, Likely R
OH-18: Zack Space, +14.6%, Likely D
OH-07: Sharen Neuhardt, +14.3%, Likely R
OH-16: John Boccieri, +8.0%, Tossup
OH-01: Steve Driehaus, +1.1%, Tossup
OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy, +0.7%, Tossup

Unless Zack Space is tempted to defect and force a deadlock, it seems unlikely that defections will make a difference in such a tightly-contested state.

Oregon:
Not Winnable by Defection

Pennsylvania: (6)
PA-10: Chris Carney, +20.3%, Tossup
PA-17: Tim Holden, +16.2%, Safe D
PA-04: Jason Altmire, +9.3%, Lean D
PA-18: Steve O'Donnell, +8.6%, Likely R
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper, +6.5%, Lean R
PA-15: Sam Bennett, -0.2%, Likely R
PA-06: Robert Roggio, -3.3%, Likely R
PA-08: Patrick Murphy, -3.4%, Likely D
PA-11: Paul Kanjorski, -5.6%, Lean D
PA-07: Joe Sestak, -6.1%, Likely D

The only Democrat with any real likelihood to defect is Carney, should he only barely scrape out re-election.  Everyone else is safe enough, given the fact that Obama is highly likely to win Pennsylvania in a tie.

Defections to Obama are the greater concern here...an abstention by Gerlach or Lou Barletta (if he wins in PA-11) may prevent the Republicans from carrying the House Vote even if they have a good day in November.

Rhode Island:
Not Winnable by Defection.

South Dakota: (1)
SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, +21.5%, Safe D

Herseth-Sandlin said she would vote for Bush, following the will of her state, in the event of a 2004 tie.  She is thus the most likely defection candidate.

Tennessee: (1)
TN-06: Bart Gordon, +20.0%, Safe D
TN-04: Lincoln Davis, +16.8%, Safe D
TN-08: John Tanner, +6.1%, Safe D

An abstention (at the very least), throwing the state into deadlock, may be quite likely, especially if McCain racks up a large victory here.

Vermont:
Not Winnable by Defection.

Virginia: (2)
VA-09: Rick Boucher, +20.2%, Safe D
VA-02: Glenn Nye, +16.2%, Lean R
VA-05: Tom Perriello, +12.9%, Likely R
VA-10: Judy Feder, +11.0%, Likely R
VA-11: Gerry Connolly, +0.6%, Lean D

As McCain is likely to win Virginia in the event of a tie, defections by any incoming freshmen in strong McCain districts (thinking mainly of VA-02 here) seem likely, making it even less likely that Obama can count on Virginia's vote in the House.

Washington:
Not Winnable by Defection.

West Virginia: (2)
WV-01: Alan Mollohan, +16.2%, Safe D
WV-02: Anne Barth, +14.6%, Lean R
WV-03: Nick Rahall, +7.2%, Safe D

If Obama gets destroyed here, there may be some pressure for, at the very least, an abstention, but the West Virginia Democrats seem like they'd tow the party line.

Wisconsin: (1 for Deadlock)
WI-08: Steve Kagen, +10.7%, Lean D

Unless Kagen has an exceptionally brutal re-election, I don't see him defecting.

Wyoming: (1)
WY-AL: Gary Trauner, +39.8%, Likely R

Should Trauner win somehow, I can't see him getting away with not defecting.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The GOP would need to control 26 states. If neither candidate gets 26 votes in the House or the VP selected by the Senate becomes acting president (which of course would be the Dem nominee).

I wouldn't be certain of that.  If this does end up as an EV tie, the Democrats might not gain any seats in the Senate either.  Lieberman might well be a wildcard, especially if McCain gets the PV nod.  After all, he can hardly be blamed for deciding to follow the PV afterwhat happened in 2000.

[Erc]

The GOP would need to control 26 states. If neither candidate gets 26 votes in the House or the VP selected by the Senate becomes acting president (which of course would be the Dem nominee).

I wouldn't be certain of that.  If this does end up as an EV tie, the Democrats might not gain any seats in the Senate either.  Lieberman might well be a wildcard, especially if McCain gets the PV nod.  After all, he can hardly be blamed for deciding to follow the PV afterwhat happened in 2000.

Of course, for that to be a possibility, the Democrats will have to do no better than picking up one seat (presumably Warner's in VA), offset by a Landrieu loss in Louisiana.  That would require Sununu to win, both Udalls to lose, not to mention the other seats (such as Alaska) where the Democrats have a reasonable shot.  Possible, but quite unlikely...and worse, far more unlikely to cause a tie [unless Obama wins states like NM/CO/NH that Democratic senate candidates lose in, the only reasonable tie scenarios I can think of involving Obama losing Minnesota!].

Of course, another possibility to think of is the selection of a sitting Senator as Obama's running mate.  If they're in the middle of their term (think Bayh), it's no problem--there's no prohibition for voting for yourself for VP.  But if it's someone who's up for re-election this year (the only one of note is Biden), that might raise some questions.  However, I can't see any scenario where Biden wouldn't be succeeded by a Democrat (unless he did something really stupid, like resign from the Senate on the afternoon of January 3rd, in which case there might not be a replacement in time / a Republican replacement if they somehow win the Gubernatorial race there this year).

[Erc]

With only a week left, figured it's time to return to this.  Not that a tie is at all likely, of course, but as McCain's options rapidly close, it's worth looking at this again.

Previous Analysis can be found here.

Alabama: Likely Republican
No change.  (Democrats would need to pick up AL-03 to take the state)

Alaska: Tossup
No change...again, it's who wins Young's seat.

Arizona: Likely Democrat (some possibility of Deadlock, very distant possibility of Republican)
With AZ-05, AZ-08 (Democratic freshmen) and AZ-01 (Renzi's seat) all looking like likely Democratic seats come next year, Arizona appears likely to flip from Deadlock to Democrat.

Arkansas: Safe Democrat
No change here.

California: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Colorado: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Connecticut: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Delaware: Safe Republican
No change here.

Florida: Likely Republican
With the impending defeat of Tim Mahoney in FL-16, the chances for Democrats picking up the state just got much worse, though not impossible.  If they pick up FL-08, FL-21, and FL-24, plus FL-25, and one of FL-13, FL-16, and FL-18, they could take the state.

Georgia: Safe Republican
No change here.

Hawai'i: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Idaho: Tossup between Republican and Deadlock
The key here is ID-01...if Sali wins, the state stays Republican, otherwise it's a Deadlock.  As ID-02 is Safe Republican, no worries of the state flipping to the Democrats.

Illinois: Safe Democrat
With Melissa Bean in IL-08 now rated as Safe, the long-shot possibility of Obama's own state voting against him in the House just slipped out of reach.

Indiana: Likely Democrat
If Mark Souder holds on in IN-03, and Sodrel somehow beats Hill in IN-09 this go-around, the Republicans could take the state...but Hill seems less and less likely to lose by the day.

Iowa: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Kansas: Lean Deadlock (some possibility of Republican)
Not much change here...if the Republicans take either Democrat-held seat (though Boyda's KS-02 is by far the likelier), they take the state.

Kentucky: Tossup between Republican and Deadlock.
If Yarmuth holds on in KY-03, and take the open seat in KY-02, a prospect that is slightly more likely than it was in August, they could throw Kentucky into a deadlock.

Louisiana: Lean Republican
Not too much change since August...If the Republicans either unseat Cazayoux in LA-06 or hold onto the open-seat in LA-04, they keep the state.  If not, the Democrats would take it.

Maine: Safe Democrat.
No change here.

Maryland: Safe Democrat.
No change here.

Massachusetts: Safe Democrat.
No change here.

Michigan: Lean Republican
Not much change since August...If either Walberg (MI-07) and Knollenberg (MI-09) hold on, the Republicans keep the state.

Minnesota: Likely Democrat (slight possibility of Deadlock)
A complete shutout of the Republicans in Minnesota is more likely than them forcing a deadlock, but a deadlock is still somewhat possible.  It would require Kline holding on in MN-02 (not hard), Bachmann to recover from shooting herself in the face in MN-06, a Republican victory in the vulnerable open seat of MN-03, plus an unseating of Tim Walz in MN-01.  As I said, theoretically possible on a very good day, but a bit laughable.

Mississippi: Likely Democrat (some possibility of Deadlock).
The race here is in CD-01...if Childers holds on here (which is looking more likely), the Democrats keep the state---otherwise, it's Deadlock.

Missouri: Tossup
If Democrats can take either MO-6 or MO-9, they can flip the state---and their prospects in MO-09 seem to have improved of late.

Montana: Safe Republican
No change here.

Nebraska: Safe Republican
No change here.

Nevada: Tossup
If the Republicans hold onto NV-03, they keep the state---if, of course, they also hold onto NV-02 as well....

New Hampshire: Tossup between Democrat and Deadlock.
If Republicans can take NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter's seat), they force a deadlock.  Hodes appears safe in NH-02, so the possibility of Republicans retaking the state is nil.

New Jersey: Safe Democrat
No change here.

New Mexico: Lean Democrat
If the Republicans hold onto both Pearce's and Wilson's old seats, they keep the state.  With Wilson's seat leaning to the Democrats, and even Pearce's seat looking quite competitive, odds are, the Republicans lose the state.

New York: Safe Democrat
No change here.

North Carolina: Safe Democrat
No change here.

North Dakota: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Ohio: Tossup (could be Democrat, Republican, or Deadlock)

The seats in question here are basically OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, and OH-16.  If Republicans hold on to 3 or more of these, they hold onto the state.  If they hold on to 2 of these, it's a deadlock.  If they lose 3 or more, the Democrats take the state.  (OH-07 and OH-18 are potentially in play, as well, but the same applies...if the parties split the competitive seats, it's a deadlock---whoever wins the most competitive seats wins the state).

Oklahoma: Safe Republican
No change here.

Oregon: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Pennsylvania: Lean Democrat
If the Republicans can hold onto all of their own seats (the most vulnerable being PA-03), and pick up PA-10 and PA-11 (or PA-04, or Murtha's PA-12), they could take the state.  One of the few states (other than Florida) where Republican prospects appear to have slightly improved in the last couple of months.

Rhode Island: Safe Democrat
No change here.

South Carolina: Lean Republican (some possibility of Deadlock)
With SC-01 now appearing competitive, the Democrats have a chance to deadlock the state, though not take it.

South Dakota: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Tennessee: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Texas: Safe Republican
No change here.

Utah: Safe Republican
No change here.

Vermont: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Virginia: Lean Republican
If Democrats pick up Davis' seat in VA-11, as well as VA-02 and VA-05 (or VA-10), they could take the state.  Would require a very good day for the Democrats in Virginia.

Washington: Safe Democrat
No change here.

West Virginia: Safe Democrat
No change here.

Wisconsin: Lean Democrat, possibility of Deadlock.
No change here...If the Republicans can take WI-08 from Kagen, they can force a deadlock.  No possibility of the Republicans taking the state outright.

Wyoming: Lean Republican
If the Democrats take the open At-Large seat here, they take the state.

[Erc]

Safe D: 21

Likely D: 4
MN*, MS*, AZ*, IN

Lean D: 3
WI*, PA, NM

Tossup: 7
NH*, AK, NV, MO, OH*, ID*, KY*

Lean Deadlock: 1
KS*

Lean R: 5
MI, LA, WY, VA, SC*

Likely R: 2
AL, FL

Safe R: 7


* Represents states with a possibility of deadlock.  If the asterik is colored, that means that the best the opposing party can do is force a deadlock (e.g., in Mississippi, Republicans can force a deadlock but cannot win the state, while in AZ, they could either force a deadlock or win the state).

[Erc]

October 28:

Note that there are no longer any plausible scenarios in which the Republicans take the House vote without defections.  If Democrats win all the seats listed as "Safe" by Cook, they have control of or deadlock in 25 states.

Seats Republicans need to win in order to force a deadlock:

Republicans need to win the seats in 15 out of the 19 states listed below in order to force a deadlock:

Three out of seven of FL-08, FL-13, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25
VA-05
AL-06
WY-AL
LA-04 or LA-06
MI-07 or MI-09
WY-AL
Three out of the six of OH-01, OH-02, OH-07, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18
MO-06 and MO-09
NV-02 and NV-03
AK-AL
NH-01
NM-01 and NM-02
Five out of the seven of PA-03, PA-04, PA-06, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, PA-15
MS-01
WI-08
IN-03 and IN-09
Two out of the four of AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08
MN-01, MN-02, MN-03, and MN-06

[nclib]

Good analysis, though Delaware should be colored blue - or are you saying Castle will defect?

[Erc]

Good analysis, though Delaware should be colored blue - or are you saying Castle will defect?

Thanks for catching that.