Electoral College Tie Analysis
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Author Topic: Electoral College Tie Analysis  (Read 17581 times)
Erc
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« on: April 05, 2008, 02:47:12 PM »

It is quite unlikely that there will be an exact 269-269 tie in the Electoral Vote...but my current prediction for the race (quite by accident) has one.  If Obama, for example, picks up NV, NM, and IA, and nothing else, we have a tie.

What happens in the event of a tie?

The race gets thrown to the House, which gets to vote on the top 3 (in this case, top 2, although a faithless elector could throw a third option open) candidates.  They vote by state, with each state getting one vote.  A candidate needs to win a majority of states (26) in order to win the presidency, with a quorum of at least one member from two-thirds of the states (34).

The only precedent we have (1824) suggests that, within each state, a majority of present representatives is required for the candidate to win the vote of the state---although, somehow, every single state in that race managed to avoid deadlock.

This is probably a fruitless exercise, but it could prove quite important if it does happen.  I'll be going through each of the states, seeing if there's any hope for a deadlock.
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« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2008, 02:48:59 PM »

The current state delegation split is

Democrats 26
Republicans 21
Tie 3

However, it would be the next Congress that would be voting, not the current one.
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Erc
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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2008, 03:06:06 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2008, 04:16:00 PM by Erc »

Alabama: Safe Republican

Currently 5-2 Republican.  At worst, it could become 4-3.

Alaska: Lean Republican

Don Young, being the only Congressman in Alaska, casts Alaska's vote.  If he is unseated by a Democrat (as is quite possible), the Democrats pick up the state.

Arizona:  Lean Deadlock

The delegation is currently 4-4, a deadlock scenario. 

If AZ-01 (Rick Renzi's open seat) falls to the Democrats, they could take the state.  However, there are two potentially vulnerable Democratic freshmen in AZ-05 and AZ-08 (Mitchell & Giffords), and McCain might have big coattails in this state.

Arkansas: Safe Democrat

Currently 3-1 Democrat.  All 3 Democrats are safe.

California: Safe Democrat

Currently 33-19 Democrat, with one vacant seat (formerly Democratic).  Only one Democrat (McNerney) is potentially vulnerable.

Colorado: Safe Democrat

Currently 4-3 Democrat.  Despite Mark Udall running for Senate, his House Seat seems safe, as do those of the other 3 Democrats.

Connecticut: Likely Democrat

Currently 4-1 Democrat.  (Prior to 2006, this had been a majority-Republican delegation).  Unless there's a huge wave that sweeps both Democratic freshmen out of Congress, Connecticut is remaining in the Democratic column.

Delaware: Safe Republican

Mike Castle (R) casts the single vote here.  If he retires, this may become competitive, but it is otherwise safe.

Florida: Likely Republican

16-9 Republican, currently.  If the Democrats got extremely lucky, taking FL-08,13,15, and 24, while retaining FL-15, they could take the state.  Barring such a quintuple-fecta, Florida remains Republican.

Georgia: Safe Republican

7-6 Republican, currently.  Barring something extremely strange occurring in GA-10, all 7 seats are safe Republican, while 2 Democratic seats are at least somewhat vulnerable.
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Erc
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2008, 03:07:13 PM »

The current state delegation split is

Democrats 26
Republicans 21
Tie 3

However, it would be the next Congress that would be voting, not the current one.

Thanks, I should have mentioned that explicitly.  Essentially, I'm seeing how likely it is that one (or more) of those Democratic delegations ceases being Democratic, on net.
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2008, 03:11:07 PM »

On the split states, is there a chance that something similar to 1800 happens, in which one member doesn't vote, allowing the state to go for one candidate?
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Erc
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2008, 03:23:38 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2008, 04:18:03 PM by Erc »

Hawai'i: Safe Democrat

2-0 Democratic.  Neither incumbent is vulnerable.

Idaho: Safe Republican

2-0 Republican.  (Sali's still not unpopular enough to be unseated).

Illinois:  Likely Democrat

11-8 Democratic.  2 Democrats are potentially vulnerable (Bean in IL-08 and freshman Foster in IL-14).  Of course, there are also 3 potentially vulnerable Republicans (freshman Roskam in IL-06, Mark Kirk in IL-10, and LaHood's open seat in IL-18).  If the Republicans have a very good day, the state could flip, though it's quite unlikely.

Indiana:  Lean Democrat

Currently 5-4 Democrat, after the landslide in 2006.  Good news for the Republicans is that they've lost all the seats they're going to lose.  If they can take just one of four potentially vulnerable seats (the most likely being IN-9, perhaps?), they take the state.

Iowa:  Safe Democrat

Currently 3-2 Democrat.  The Democrats have two freshmen, but neither appear vulnerable.

Kansas: Lean Deadlock (potentially Republican)

Currently a 2-2 tie.  Both Democrats are potentially vulnerable, with freshman Nancy Boyda (KS-02) in particular danger.

Kentucky: Safe Republican

Currently 4-2 Republican.  No Republican is vulnerable, while one Democrat (Yarmuth) theoretically could be.

Louisiana: Likely Republican

Currently 3-2 Republican, with 2 open seats (formerly occupied by Republicans).  The Democrats have a mild chance if they win both the special election in CD-06 and take McCrery's open seat in CD-04.

Maine: Safe Democrat

Currently 2-0 Democrat, with both incumbents safe.

Maryland: Safe Democrat

Currently 6-2 Democrat, with all Democratic incumbents safe.

Massachusetts: Safe Democrat

Currently 10-0 Democrat.  Let's not kid ourselves here.
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Erc
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2008, 03:26:58 PM »

On the split states, is there a chance that something similar to 1800 happens, in which one member doesn't vote, allowing the state to go for one candidate?

Entirely possible, as only a majority of the votes cast is needed for a candidate to win the state (under the 1824 rules, as decided by Congress on February 7th, 1825 [Link]).
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Erc
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2008, 03:44:11 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2008, 04:37:16 PM by Erc »

Michigan: Likely Republican
9-6 Republican, currently.  If both Tim Walberg (MI-07) and MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg) fall to the Democrats, they could take the state.

Minnesota: Likely Democrat (distant possibility of a Deadlock)

Currently 5-3 Democrat.  If the Republicans take Walz's seat in MN-01, while holding onto MN-03 (Ramstad's open seat) and MN-06 (freshman Bachmann), they can achieve a deadlock.  They have no possibility of taking the state outright, however.

Mississippi: Safe Deadlock.

Currently 2-1 Democrat, with 1 vacant (Wicker's old seat).  All incumbents are safe, and CD-01 is essentially guaranteed to the Republicans.

Missouri: Likely Republican

Currently 5-4 Republican.  Two Republican seats (MO-06 & MO-09) are potential pickups.

Montana: Safe Republican

Danny Rehberg has the only vote, and is popular, safe, and Republican.

Nebraska: Safe Republican

3-0 Republican.  This is safe.

Nevada: Lean Republican

2-1 Republican.  Republican Jon Porter, in CD 3, is somewhat vulnerable, and the state flips if he loses his seat.

New Hampshire: Lean Democrat (possibility of Deadlock, distant possibility of Republican)

2-0 Democrat, a complete flip since 2006.  If the Democratic wave reverses itself, Shea-Porter could lose her seat, making NH a deadlock.  If the Republicans make a comeback of immense proportions, Hodes could be unseated, returning NH to the Republican column.

New Jersey: Safe Democrat

7-6 Democrat, but all the Democrats are safe and the Republicans have two open seats to defend.

New Mexico:  Leans Democratic [pickup]

Currently 2-1 Republican.  With all 3 Congressmen running for the Senate seat, this will be quite interesting.  However, Udall's seat is still safely Democratic no matter what happens, while Wilson's seat leans Democratic without her to defend it, and Pearce's seat is somewhat vulnerable itself.
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Erc
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2008, 03:58:12 PM »
« Edited: April 29, 2008, 11:28:00 AM by Erc »

New York: Safe Democrat

23-6 Democrat.  Let's not kid ourselves.

North Carolina: Likely Democrat

7-6 Democrat.  If Heath Shuler (CD-11) falls and Robin Hayes (CD-03) retains his seat, the Republicans pick up the state.

North Dakota: Safe Democrat

Earl Pomeroy is a Democrat.  And he's not leaving office until he's dead.

Ohio: Lean Republican (possibility of Deadlock or even Democratic)

Currently 11-7 Republican.  However, the Republicans have two tough open seats to defend in CDs 15 and 16, and need to worry about defending CDs 1, 2, and 14, while the Democrats' only potentially vulnerable incumbent is Zack Space in CD 18.  If the Democrats net 2, they throw the state into Deadlock.  If they net 3 or more, they take the state.

Oklahoma: Safe Democrat Republican

4-1 Republican.  Everybody's safe.

Oregon: Safe Democrat

4-1 Democrat.  Although CD-05 will be competitive, none of the other Democratic seats are, so this is remaining Democratic.

Pennsylvania: Likely Democrat

11-8 Democrat.  There are enough potentially vulnerable Democrats that the Republicans could pick up the state in a good year, by unseating 2 of them (while holding on to their own seats)

Rhode Island: Safe Democrat

2-0 Democrat, both safe.

South Carolina: Safe Republican

4-2 Republican.  Everybody's safe.

South Dakota: Safe Democrat

Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin has this seat as long as she wants to.
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2008, 03:59:10 PM »

Have you considered that some representatives might buck their party and instead choose the winner of the state, or abstain from voting? The at-large members from states likely to go the other way for the presidency (Castle, Herseth, Pomeroy) and others who would be under similar pressure (say, Taylor in Mississippi) might be potential wildcards.
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Erc
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« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2008, 04:08:43 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2008, 04:24:47 PM by Erc »

Tennessee: Safe Democrat

5-4 Democrat.  All incumbents are safe.

Texas:  Safe Republican

19-13 Democrat Republican.  No vulnerable Republicans.

Utah:  Safe Republican

2-1 Democrat Republican.  Everybody's safe.

Vermont: Safe Democrat

Yup.

Virginia: Safe Republican

8-3 Republican.  At worst, it becomes 6-5 Republican.

Washington: Safe Democrat

6-3 Democrat, with all Democrats safe.

West Virginia: Safe Democrat

2-1 Democrat, with all Democrats safe.

Wisconsin: Lean Democrat (possibility of Deadlock, cannot be Republican)

5-3 Democrat.  All Republicans are safe, while freshman Steve Kagen (WI-08) is potentially vulnerable.

Wyoming: Safe Republican

With Cubin retiring, Wyoming remains safely in Republican hands.
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Erc
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« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2008, 04:13:26 PM »

Have you considered that some representatives might buck their party and instead choose the winner of the state, or abstain from voting? The at-large members from states likely to go the other way for the presidency (Castle, Herseth, Pomeroy) and others who would be under similar pressure (say, Taylor in Mississippi) might be potential wildcards.

It's entirely possible, though, for right now, I'll just assume people are voting along party lines.
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Alcon
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2008, 04:22:12 PM »

Nicely done Smiley

(You have typos for TX and UT.)
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2008, 04:25:23 PM »

So this would be the map.

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J.G.H.
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« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2008, 04:29:28 PM »

I'll analyze the fact that many Congressmen from conservative districts, of which there are many Democrats, would be under pressure to vote for the winner of their
district, McCain.  Especially the younger, more vulnerable ones. I made a list a while back analyzing how each state would vote.  The states that are tied or otherwise interesting follow.
We begin with 26 Democratic Delegations, 21 Republican, and 3 "Toss-up" (tied).

R-held Dem States:
DE:  Castle has the principles and political sense to vote for the Dems. Flip to: 27 D, 20 R, 3 T
MI:  9-6 R. Though Republicans hold a 9-6 advantage in this D state, the last redistricting was quite impressive, and none of them hold any particularly democratic-leaning district.  It'd take two of them to flip the state anyway.  Keep it at Republican.
NV:  2-1 R. It's hard to say, really.  Dems could, in theory, pick up a seat to give this one a 2-1 Dem delegation, or Porter might be under pressure to vote with the Dems, especially since Obama wins the state in this scenario.  Flip to Toss-up:  27 D, 19 R, 4 T
NM:  2-1 R. Wilson's seat seems to lean Democratic, which would give them a majority.  Flip to Dems: 28 D, 18 R, 4 T

Tied States:
AZ:  4-4. Hard to say.  Giffords could lose, theoretically, or be under pressure to vote R, particularly since McCain is from AZ and would likely win her district by a large amount.  Renzi's seat may be lost, but McCain's coattails may save it.  Keep at Toss-Up.
KS:  2-2. If Boyda survives and she wants to have hope that she'll survive again, she'll vote R.  Flip to Rep: 28 D, 19 R, 3 T
MS:  2-2. Gene Taylor has the principles and political sense to vote for the Rs.  Flip to Rep: 28 D, 20 R, 2 T

D-held Rep States
AR:  3-1 D. Given how stable the local Dems are and how weak the Reps are, the Democratic members are unlikely to feel any particular push to vote R.  Keep it at Dem.
CO: 4-3 D. Under this plan, Obama wouldn't win CO, but I'm sure it would be very close.  The only Dem that  might feel the heat to switch would be Salazar, but his district would probably be pretty close regardless.  Keep this one Dem for now.
IN:  5-4 D. Three out of the five Democrats represent conservative districts, and I'll eat my hat if at least one of them doesn't switch their support.  Flip to Rep: 27 D, 21 R, 2 T
NC:  7-6 D. Dems hold only 1 more seat, and Shuler in particular may switch.  Hayes is in danger of losing his seat, but his successor would be wise to vote R in any case.  Flip to Toss-up: 26 D, 21 R, 3 T
ND:  Logically, Pomeroy should switch.  Flip to Rep: 25 D, 22 R, 3 T
SD:  Herseth Sandlin said herself in 2004 she would vote for the Republican if forced to choose.  Flip to Rep: 24 D, 23 R, 3 T
TN:  5-4 D. On paper, this one would be a good candidate, but I'm not seeing it.  Davis would be the only candidate to switch, but let's put this one into Toss-up for now, anyway: 23 D, 23 R, 4 T
WV:  2-1 D. Given the Dem party strength reguardless of the national Republican lean of the state, I don't see this one switching.  Keep it at Dems.

Then, we have 23 D, 23 R, and 4 toss-ups.  I would give AZ Rep and TN Dem, maybe, but the others I'm not so sure.  I think it will in the end come down to the popular election vote.  An Obama victory by the popular vote would give these Democrats cover to vote with their party, but a McCain victory, not so much.
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Erc
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« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2008, 04:33:39 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2008, 04:42:51 PM by Erc »

The analysis of individual seats is blatantly stolen from Cook, by the way, as I know next-to-nothing about House races.  If anyone has any better analysis to offer, please feel free.

Net results:



Safe Democratic (18)

Likely Democratic (5): MN, CT, IL, PA, NC

Lean Democratic (4): WI, NH, IN, NM

Lean Republican (3): AK, NV, OH

Likely Republican (4): LA, MI, MO, FL

Strong Republican (13)


Lean Deadlock (possibly Republican): KS

Lean Deadlock (possibly either): AZ

Strong Deadlock: MS


Of the states possibly in contention, only MN, WI, NH, OH can become deadlocked.  (And note that the first two cannot feasibly flip to the Republicans).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #16 on: April 05, 2008, 04:39:06 PM »

I'll analyze the fact that many Congressmen from conservative districts, of which there are many Democrats, would be under pressure to vote for the winner of their
district, McCain.  Especially the younger, more vulnerable ones. I made a list a while back analyzing how each state would vote.  The states that are tied or otherwise interesting follow.
We begin with 26 Democratic Delegations, 21 Republican, and 3 "Toss-up" (tied).

R-held Dem States:
DE:  Castle has the principles and political sense to vote for the Dems. Flip to: 27 D, 20 R, 3 T
MI:  9-6 R. Though Republicans hold a 9-6 advantage in this D state, the last redistricting was quite impressive, and none of them hold any particularly democratic-leaning district.  It'd take two of them to flip the state anyway.  Keep it at Republican.
NV:  2-1 R. It's hard to say, really.  Dems could, in theory, pick up a seat to give this one a 2-1 Dem delegation, or Porter might be under pressure to vote with the Dems, especially since Obama wins the state in this scenario.  Flip to Toss-up:  27 D, 19 R, 4 T
NM:  2-1 R. Wilson's seat seems to lean Democratic, which would give them a majority.  Flip to Dems: 28 D, 18 R, 4 T

Tied States:
AZ:  4-4. Hard to say.  Giffords could lose, theoretically, or be under pressure to vote R, particularly since McCain is from AZ and would likely win her district by a large amount.  Renzi's seat may be lost, but McCain's coattails may save it.  Keep at Toss-Up.
KS:  2-2. If Boyda survives and she wants to have hope that she'll survive again, she'll vote R.  Flip to Rep: 28 D, 19 R, 3 T
MS:  2-2. Gene Taylor has the principles and political sense to vote for the Rs.  Flip to Rep: 28 D, 20 R, 2 T

D-held Rep States
AR:  3-1 D. Given how stable the local Dems are and how weak the Reps are, the Democratic members are unlikely to feel any particular push to vote R.  Keep it at Dem.
CO: 4-3 D. Under this plan, Obama wouldn't win CO, but I'm sure it would be very close.  The only Dem that  might feel the heat to switch would be Salazar, but his district would probably be pretty close regardless.  Keep this one Dem for now.
IN:  5-4 D. Three out of the five Democrats represent conservative districts, and I'll eat my hat if at least one of them doesn't switch their support.  Flip to Rep: 27 D, 21 R, 2 T
NC:  7-6 D. Dems hold only 1 more seat, and Shuler in particular may switch.  Hayes is in danger of losing his seat, but his successor would be wise to vote R in any case.  Flip to Toss-up: 26 D, 21 R, 3 T
ND:  Logically, Pomeroy should switch.  Flip to Rep: 25 D, 22 R, 3 T
SD:  Herseth Sandlin said herself in 2004 she would vote for the Republican if forced to choose.  Flip to Rep: 24 D, 23 R, 3 T
TN:  5-4 D. On paper, this one would be a good candidate, but I'm not seeing it.  Davis would be the only candidate to switch, but let's put this one into Toss-up for now, anyway: 23 D, 23 R, 4 T
WV:  2-1 D. Given the Dem party strength reguardless of the national Republican lean of the state, I don't see this one switching.  Keep it at Dems.

Then, we have 23 D, 23 R, and 4 toss-ups.  I would give AZ Rep and TN Dem, maybe, but the others I'm not so sure.  I think it will in the end come down to the popular election vote.  An Obama victory by the popular vote would give these Democrats cover to vote with their party, but a McCain victory, not so much.

Excellent analysis.  I think AZ, KS, and MS would all ended up tilting to McCain in this scenario if these Democrats want to keep their jobs in the future. 
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Erc
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« Reply #17 on: April 05, 2008, 04:47:59 PM »

But the people in question also have primaries to consider.  If you're a Democrat and have the deciding vote, your primary voters will hate you far more for electing McCain than everyone else will hate you for electing Obama (after all, it would be expected).  They'd also be rather ostracized within their own party (especially within a large state delegation).  Only if a candidate is very sure of their support among their own party, are from an At-Large state, or are under an extreme amount of pressure to do so, would they consider flipping.

I think we can safely say that any Representative in a CD which Obama wins will be voting for Obama (regardless of how the state votes)...they should be able to play the 'I'm representing my constituents' card if they come under pressure.
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« Reply #18 on: April 05, 2008, 04:55:48 PM »

I think there'd be intense pressure to give the Presidency to whoever won the popular vote, as a sort of "tie-breaker."
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Erc
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« Reply #19 on: April 05, 2008, 05:09:16 PM »

How do Republicans have a shot of getting a deadlock (let alone winning) in 2009?

The Democrats are currently favored in 27 delegations (the 26 they now have + NM).  So, they need to lose at least two.

This means the Republicans need to hold on to AZ-01, AK-AL, NV-03, and not lose more than 1 of the Ohio seats.

Additionally, they must win 2 out of the following 4 seats: WI-08, NH-01, IN-09, or either of the two NM seats.  (Or pick up a surprise, like NC-11 or MN-01, or convince Herseth-Sandlin to jump ship).

Remember, this is just to prevent the Democrats from winning on the first ballot.  Assuming they make this pre-condition, how do they win outright?

If they've done this, they'll have at least 20 states under their control.  Winning IN-09 and a NM seat will get them 22.  Winning KS-02 and either AZ-05 or AZ-08 will get them 24.

Getting the two more needed would be quite difficult.  They could get NH with NH-02 (but that's highly unlikely if Obama wins NH, as he does in this scenario---although CO to Obama but NH & [NV or NM] to McCain would give a tie, as well).  They could get NC with NC-11.  That gets them 26, but that's an awful lot of close wins for the Republicans to get in a tight national race.  Alternatively, they pick up a couple of defectors, or they have a good day in PA (or a ridiculously good day in CT).
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Erc
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« Reply #20 on: April 05, 2008, 05:10:16 PM »

I think there'd be intense pressure to give the Presidency to whoever won the popular vote, as a sort of "tie-breaker."

And (for a variety of reasons), I'd bet that would be Obama.  So it would be incredibly hard for the Republicans to pull it off, as any Democrat under pressure can fall back on that excuse (and their own convictions).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #21 on: April 05, 2008, 05:16:34 PM »

But the people in question also have primaries to consider.  If you're a Democrat and have the deciding vote, your primary voters will hate you far more for electing McCain than everyone else will hate you for electing Obama (after all, it would be expected).  They'd also be rather ostracized within their own party (especially within a large state delegation).  Only if a candidate is very sure of their support among their own party, are from an At-Large state, or are under an extreme amount of pressure to do so, would they consider flipping.

I think we can safely say that any Representative in a CD which Obama wins will be voting for Obama (regardless of how the state votes)...they should be able to play the 'I'm representing my constituents' card if they come under pressure.

My point was that people like Earl Pomeroy, Stephanie Herseth, Gabby Giffords,  Nancy Boyda, Harry Mitchell, Gene Taylor, and likely Heath Shuler and one of Tennessee blue dogs are likely to vote the way their district does, giving John McCain the victory. 
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« Reply #22 on: April 05, 2008, 05:32:43 PM »

On the split states, is there a chance that something similar to 1800 happens, in which one member doesn't vote, allowing the state to go for one candidate?

Entirely possible, as only a majority of the votes cast is needed for a candidate to win the state (under the 1824 rules, as decided by Congress on February 7th, 1825 [Link]).

That is also what happened in 1801.  Maryland was split 4-4 as was Vermont 1-1 for the first 35 ballots so they were treated as no result.  On the 36th ballot, the Federalists voting for Burr in those States abstained, giving Jefferson the States despite not having a majority of the delegation, but having a majority of the votes cast.
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Erc
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« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2008, 06:04:41 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2008, 06:08:45 PM by Erc »

Democratic Congressmen in Districts won by Bush by a >3% margin:

Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL): +27%
Gene Taylor (MS-04): +27%
Brad Ellsworth (IN-08): +24%
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-AL): +21%
Nancy Boyda (KS-02): +20%
Bart Gordon (TN-06): +20%
Chris Carney (PA-10): +20%
Baron Hill (IN-09): +19%
Lincoln Davis (TN-04): +17%
Tim Holden (PA-17): +16%
Alan Mollohan (WV-01): +16%
Heath Shuler (NC-11): +14%
Joe Donnelly (IN-02): +13%
Mike McIntyre (NC-07): +12%
Dennis Moore (KS-03): +11%
John Salazar (CO-03): +11%
Steve Kagen (WI-08): +11%
Harry Mitchell (AZ-05): +9%
Jason Altmire (PA-04): +9%
Bob Etheridge (NC-02): +8%
Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08): +7%
Nick Rahall (WV-03): +7%
John Tanner (TN-08): +6%
Marion Berry (AR-01): +5%
Tim Walz (MN-01): +4%
Vic Snyder (AR-02): +3%
Mike Ross (AR-03): +3%
Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01): +3%

This is not everybody; some in states that are otherwise solidly Democratic have been omitted, as they will have no effect on the final result in the state.

So, which states are vulnerable to pressure (in this direction):

Obviously, both ND & SD (with Herseth-Sandlin having committed herself to voting for Bush in '04).

MS, where Gene Taylor probably has an interest in staying alive.

IN, where the Democrats hold a 5-4 margin, has three CDs which voted for Bush with over a 10% margin.

KS, where both voted for Bush with over a 10% margin (& Boyda is particularly vulnerable)

AZ, McCain's home state and with two reasonably vulnerable (7%, 9%) Democrats.

TN, where the Democrats have a slim 5-4 margin and 2 Democrats in heavily Bush districts (>15%), and 1 in a lean Bush district (6%).

NC, where the Democrats hold a 7-6 margin, with 2 Democrats in Bush districts (Shuler at +14 and Etheridge at +8).

CO, only if Salazar (+11 Bush) feels vulnerable.  The state as a whole should be close enough that he doesn't jump ship.

WI, only if Kagen (+11 Bush) feels vulnerable.  As Obama should win this state in this scenario, I wouldn't expect him to jump ship.

PA, possibly, if one of the Democrats loses their seat, and another one (presumably Holden or Carney?) feels vulnerable.

WV should be solidly Democratic.
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Erc
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« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2008, 06:23:42 PM »

On the flip side of things, there are very few Republicans in a similar situation, who could be pressured to move to Obama.  In fact, after 2006, there are only 8 in the entire country, and none are worse off than Chris Shays.  Of those 8, four are in states that are solidly Democratic (Shays [CT-04], Kirk [IL-10], Walsh [NY-25], and Reichert [WA-08]), and thus don't need to be pressured.

Of the remaining 4, two are in PA (Gerlach in CD 6 & Dent in CD 15), which was always a stretch for the Republicans to win anyway.

One is Heather Wilson's seat in New Mexico, which the Democrats are likely to just pick up outright.

In all of these cases, the margin for Kerry was small (Purple heart%), so the margin for Obama likely won't be more than 6% or so, so there can't be an incredible amount of pressure.


The only Republican who matters who is in serious danger of flipping over is Michael Castle (DE-AL), though he's personally popular enough that he probably doesn't have to (though there might be some pressure if Herseth-Sandlin switches over for him to do the honorable thing, as well).
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