The next Chancellor of Germany will be...

[Michael Z]

Who will be the next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel? Could Kurt Beck or Franz-Walter Steinmeier pull off a surprise victory in 2009? Will Franz Müntefering muster a comeback? Or will the Grand Coalition fail and Merkel fall victim to internal wrangling, effectively handing the position to someone like Koch or Wulff? Or will Merkel stay in power for years and years and her successor will be someone we're even yet to hear about?

For what it's worth, my prediction is that the SPD will probably lose the next two elections under Steinmeier and Gabriel respectively, before winning with Berlin's mayor Klaus Wowereit as their candidate and thus the next Chancellor. But that's just my two cents, or pence, whatever.

Go.

[The Mikado]

Angela Merkel for the forseeable future.

And it will not be Roland Koch, if the German people have any sense at all left...which I think they do.  They haven't had a leader I disapprove of since 1945...I'd hate to see them break that streak.

BTW, I was looking at your sig pic.  Bush is a teetotaler...what the hell is he doing with a wineglass?

[Michael Z]

Angela Merkel for the forseeable future.

And it will not be Roland Koch, if the German people have any sense at all left...which I think they do.  They haven't had a leader I disapprove of since 1945...I'd hate to see them break that streak.

Yeah, ditto. Should Koch become Chancellor, chances are he would be very unpopular, so it is pretty unlikely.

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Oh, that's not wine, that's.... apple juice!

[Tender Branson]

I´d say that Merkel will stay at least until 2013 and as of 2008, I can´t say who will follow her ...

[Verily]

Too far in the future to predict. Merkel will definitely be Chancellor following the next election, barring some really serious catastrophe for her or the CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

For what it's worth, my prediction is that the SPD will probably lose the next two elections under Steinmeier and Gabriel respectively, before winning with Berlin's mayor Klaus Wowereit as their candidate and thus the next Chancellor. But that's just my two cents, or pence, whatever.

Um, Wowereit will be at least* 64 years old by then... some could argue that his time has come and gone. We don't even know whether he'll still be mayor of Berlin at that point. If he's a chancellor candidate it will most likely be in 2013.

And don't forget the "Barack Obama factor": The 2017 election* will take place approx. nine-and-a-half years from now. Exactly nine-and-a-half years ago Angela Merkel was in transition from being federal minister of environment to being secretary general of the CDU. Using this logic, Sigmar Gabriel (currently minister of environment), Hubertus Heil (SPD secretary general), or Ronald Pofalla (CDU secretary general) could be Chancellor of Germany in 2017.

Well, Germany would be really screwed if douchebags like Heil or Pofalla come anywhere near the Chancellorship (Pofalla in particular would serve as good fodder for stand-up comedians though).  Gabriel on the other hand doesn't sound that far-fetched... which probably has more something to do with the fact that he's a former minister-president of Lower Saxony and not because of his current position. And he's a bit younger than Wowereit.

* This is under assumption that the Bundestag's term isn't extended from four to five years as it is sometimes under discussion.



EDIT - I would rank the names mentioned in the poll this way...

High likelihood:
1) Klaus Wowereit (SPD)
2) Christian Wulff (CDU)
3) Sigmar Gabriel (SPD)

Medium likelihood:
4) Franz-Walter Steinmeier (SPD)
5) Kurt Beck (SPD)

Low likelihood:
6) Roland Koch (CDU)
7) Franz Müntefering (SPD)
Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU)

Maybe you could switch 1) with 3)... this depends on whether the SPD wins the 2013 or the 2017 election first.

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances of Peter Harry Carstensen, Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, if Merkel decides to retire in 2013 ? Carstensen's state CDU is on a good way to defeat the SPD once again in 2010. Any chance for him within the CDU to become a front-runner ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What are the chances of Peter Harry Carstensen, Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, if Merkel decides to retire in 2013 ? Carstensen's state CDU is on a good way to defeat the SPD once again in 2010. Any chance for him within the CDU to become a front-runner ?

Um, Carstensen is actually seven years older than Merkel. He'll be 66 in 2013. And so far he seemed to have no higher ambitions whatsoever.

And as I see it, Carstensen would only become chancellor candidate of the CDU after Christian Wulff,  Roland Koch, Peter Müller, Jürgen Rüttgers, Dieter Althaus, Ole von Beust, and Günther Oettinger were assassinated. Any of those CDU minister-presidents probably has better chances of becoming Chancellor.

Carstensen falls more under the "minister-president as pre-retirement position" category... similar to Böhmer in Saxony-Anhalt or Beckstein in Bavaria.

[minionofmidas]

Of the eight options given, Gabriel. Wulff and Wowereit are the only other ones up there to be realistically possible, the others are essentially dead politically and merely haven't noticed yet.

I voted Gabriel.  I should have voted "someone else", though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the others are essentially dead politically and merely haven't noticed yet.

Amusing how often this happens with politicians

[minionofmidas]

the others are essentially dead politically and merely haven't noticed yet.

Amusing how often this happens with politicians

I might precisize: Steinmeier is not politically dead. He is merely at the highpoint of his career.