Zimbabwe 2008 Elections

[ag]

The final results of the parliamentary race are less MDC than I've expected (I guess, they've done smthg in rural Matabeleland):

MDC-T 99
ZANU-PF 97
MDC 10
Ind 1

In 3 remaining seats they will have to have by-elections due to canidates dying before the vote.

BTW, final independent count agrees, at least, on the seat distribution.

[2952-0-0]

So why did they allow the opposition to win? Is it because the military and police have lost the will to keep attacking the MDC, or does Mugabe thinks his time is up, or did they underestimate the amount of rigging they had to do?

[ag]

Results by province (subject to typos):

Bulawayo
MDC-T 11
By-election needed 1

Harare
MDC-T 28
ZANU-PF 1

Mashonaland Central
ZANU-PF 15
MDC-T 2

Mashonaland East
ZANU-PF 19
MDC-T 4

Mashonaland West
ZANU-PF 16
MDC-T 6

Masvingo
MDC-T 14
ZANU-PF 12

Matabeleland North
MDC-T 5
MDC 4
ZANU-PF 3
Ind 1

Matabeleland South
MDC 6
ZANU-PF 4
MDC-T 2
By-election needed 1

Manicaland
MDC-T 21
ZANU-PF 5

Midlands
ZANU-PF 20
MDC-T 7
By-election needed in 1

[ag]

So why did they allow the opposition to win? Is it because the military and police have lost the will to keep attacking the MDC, or does Mugabe thinks his time is up, or did they underestimate the amount of rigging they had to do?

There is a limit how much you can rig/pressure, etc. Conditional on coming close to that limit it is a lot easier to manufacture a narrow loss than an outright win: the winning opposition is unlikely to object as strenuously. Given te popularity of the opposition in the capital, attempting to declare a ZANU victory might have caused a revolution - and they know it. They still haven't said much on the presidential race, BTW.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the sheer scale of the defeat and the international pressure made it impossible to rig the ballots like they used to.

[Verily]

It's sort of sad that they obviously still rigged the vote and yet lost.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I also think they rigged the vote. Don't everyone hate Mugabe in Matabeleland because he gassed everyone there? It seems like they couldn't cheat the MDC out of their victories in the cities and then couldn't run up sufficient margins elsewhere.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, I also think they rigged the vote. Don't everyone hate Mugabe in Matabeleland because he gassed everyone there? It seems like they couldn't cheat the MDC out of their victories in the cities and then couldn't run up sufficient margins elsewhere.

That's pretty much what happened, IMO.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Reports floating around suggesting that Mugabe has told family and close supporters that he will concede.

[Silent Hunter]

This is the strangest election I've ever witnessed. I've never heard of a dictator trying to rig an election and failing.

[ottermax]

This is the strangest election I've ever witnessed. I've never heard of a dictator trying to rig an election and failing.

Chavez I believe with his referenda.

[Verily]

This is the strangest election I've ever witnessed. I've never heard of a dictator trying to rig an election and failing.

Chavez I believe with his referenda.

True, but Chavez has never had such complete power as Mugabe. And Mugabe's rigged elections massively in the past; Chavez may have made slight "adjustments" to some past results, but he's never engaged in the type of massive fraud that gives the ruling party 80% of the vote.

[Dan the Roman]

This is the strangest election I've ever witnessed. I've never heard of a dictator trying to rig an election and failing.

Chavez I believe with his referenda.

True, but Chavez has never had such complete power as Mugabe. And Mugabe's rigged elections massively in the past; Chavez may have made slight "adjustments" to some past results, but he's never engaged in the type of massive fraud that gives the ruling party 80% of the vote.

I think the degree to which Mugabe has had to rig as opposed to say beating the crap out of people and denying them food is not as great as ascribed. Weird stuff definitely happened in the dead of night in 2000(how else to explain the MDC going from 87 to 57 seats in the final results?) but I think Zanu would have won the 2005 elections without messing with the totals because they had already one before then.

It needs to be remembered. Zanu has not won 80% of the vote since people had reason to vote against them(1999). They lost the 2000 referendum 55-45, won the 2000 Parly vote 53-46(with slight rigging and massive intimidation) won the 2002 Presidential race 56-42(again with massive intimidation and likely some rigging) and the 2005 Parlys 59-39.

[minionofmidas]

This is the strangest election I've ever witnessed. I've never heard of a dictator trying to rig an election and failing.

Chavez I believe with his referenda.

True, but Chavez has never had such complete power as Mugabe. And Mugabe's rigged elections massively in the past; Chavez may have made slight "adjustments" to some past results, but he's never engaged in the type of massive fraud that gives the ruling party 80% of the vote.

I think the degree to which Mugabe has had to rig as opposed to say beating the crap out of people and denying them food is not as great as ascribed. Weird stuff definitely happened in the dead of night in 2000(how else to explain the MDC going from 87 to 57 seats in the final results?) but I think Zanu would have won the 2005 elections without messing with the totals because they had already one before then.

It needs to be remembered. Zanu has not won 80% of the vote since people had reason to vote against them(1999). They lost the 2000 referendum 55-45, won the 2000 Parly vote 53-46(with slight rigging and massive intimidation) won the 2002 Presidential race 56-42(again with massive intimidation and likely some rigging) and the 2005 Parlys 59-39.

Mugabe has rigged (as in, Belarus-style rigged. Not South American-style corrupted.) one election in his lifetime, and he didn't with this one. Chavez never has.

As to an election with obvious strong parallels to this one, well Toledo vs Fujimori immediately springs to mind.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I also think they rigged the vote. Don't everyone hate Mugabe in Matabeleland because he gassed everyone there? It seems like they couldn't cheat the MDC out of their victories in the cities and then couldn't run up sufficient margins elsewhere.

That's pretty much what happened, IMO.

Worth noting that, though MDC won more seats, ZANU-PF actually lead the popular vote (comparing only with MDC's majority faction.) Probably due to ZANU-PF winning by big margins in some seats where MDC didn't dare campaign much, or where the results were blatantly tampered with.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I also think they rigged the vote. Don't everyone hate Mugabe in Matabeleland because he gassed everyone there? It seems like they couldn't cheat the MDC out of their victories in the cities and then couldn't run up sufficient margins elsewhere.

That's pretty much what happened, IMO.

Worth noting that, though MDC won more seats, ZANU-PF actually lead the popular vote (comparing only with MDC's majority faction.) Probably due to ZANU-PF winning by big margins in some seats where MDC didn't dare campaign much, or where the results were blatantly tampered with.

Just checked, and this is true even according to MDC's parallel count.

MDC is contesting the results in one constituency. ZANU-PF in 16.

[ottermax]

Still no results...

[Silent Hunter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7333918.stm

We might actually get some results.

[minionofmidas]

Still no results...

Which probably means Tsvangirai is really just over 50%...

[StateBoiler]

From an Indian cricket writer writing for the Times of India, recounting his 2003 trip in Zimbabwe at the Cricket World Cup then.

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[StateBoiler]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/04/wzim304.xml

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D'oh!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I heard he offered to step down in exchange for some retroactive immunity. Maybe the US Senate can give him some retroactive immunity for whatever crimes he may have committed.

[StateBoiler]

Rumors (yes, I know a lot have been spreading) that there has been a bloodless military coup.

To be bluntly honest, considering Mugabe's absence and that the African Union says they can't even get in touch with him, it makes sense to me.

[Meeker]

So... what happened?

[minionofmidas]

So... what happened?

The Election Commission continues to decline to release results. In other words, Mr Tsvangirai has either won outright, or hasn't by such a ridiculously small margin that no one's going to be convinced he didn't.
ZANU-PF and the Election Commission are really hitting themselves for thinking they didn't need to forge the election results, and now it's probably too late. So they're just trying to sit this out. The African Union is probably trying to broker something, but I can't see what.