Zimbabwe 2008 Elections

[StateBoiler]

Look at this. Robert Mugabe has become an American Republicrat-type politician.

‘Those who want to vote for Tsvangirai can do so and waste their votes’

http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=732448

[2952-0-0]

Pity the junior civil servant who must spend hours taking ballots and marking:

MUGABE, ROBERT [X]

MUGABE, ROBERT [X]

MUGABE, ROBERT [X]

MUGABE, ROBERT [X]

MUGABE, ROBERT [X]

MUGABE, ROBERT [X]

It must be even more boring than my telemarketing job!

[SPQR]

Look at this. Robert Mugabe has become an American Republicrat-type politician.

‘Those who want to vote for Tsvangirai can do so and waste their votes’

http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=732448

Actually Berlusconi said that voting for parties other than his is wasting the vote.

[ottermax]

I heard that the MDC was winning quite a bit, although these are just reports... the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission still has to release the results...

[Harry Hayfield]

This is interesting I say, but the main Zimbabwe Electoral Commission returns a 403 / 404 error

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Reports from kubatana.net

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Plenty of interesting and "interesting" rumours are currently in circulation in Zimbabwe right now:

The unconfirmed reports (or rumours) are flying crazily. Just heard that Robert Mugabe has apparently left for Mozambique (this morning it was Mauritius).

We also heard that Chiweshe (ZEC Chairman) fled the Meikles Hotel in Harare where the press are gathered waiting to hear results. The story goes that he refused to deliver the news.

Another unconfirmed report is that Elliot Manyike has shot someone in anger, seriously angry because he lost his seat.

But the oddest news of the morning so far is the story that Sabina Mugabe has died of a heart attack and Bob is using this as an excuse to delay the news.

I laughed at this last, because it sounds like such Zimbo grapevine stuff, but the story is coming in from a variety of sources.

It’s hard to filter fact from fiction at this stage. But what it tells me is that the nation is desperate for news and starting to share everything they have as fast as they can.

Oh, and last bit of confirmed news - this is fact fact - via the ZBC is that they are still “verifying” the results. We all know what “verifying” has meant in previous years.

… as I finished writing and was just about to post, one more snippet of news came in: the police have apparently been put on high alert commencing 2pm and the MDC planning to do a press announcement this afternoon - no time given yet.

Suddenly it turns ominous. But I’m still buzzing, BUZZING!

OH….. and another flash of info just in (this is what it’s like today) news that people are starting to celebrate everywhere.

http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe/archives/785

[Michael Z]

The MDC claims to have won a landslide victory.

I think it's fairly obvious that, should the elections be free and fair, Tsvangirai will be President of Zimbabwe. But then the same would have been the case had the 2002 elections not been rigged and MDC supporters not been intimidated with violence. Of course, anti-Mugabe sentiment is so high that this alone won't do, they'd probably have to resort to other tactics.

On which note, I suspect that Simba Makoni was a Zanu-PF plant to split the opposition vote; bearing in mind that in this election people are voting against Mugabe, more than anything.

[StateBoiler]

The MDC claims to have won a landslide victory.

I think it's fairly obvious that, should the elections be free and fair, Tsvangirai will be President of Zimbabwe. But then the same would have been the case had the 2002 elections not been rigged and MDC supporters not been intimidated with violence. Of course, anti-Mugabe sentiment is so high that this alone won't do, they'd probably have to resort to other tactics.

On which note, I suspect that Simba Makoni was a Zanu-PF plant to split the opposition vote; bearing in mind that in this election people are voting against Mugabe, more than anything.

I don't exactly buy that, cause if the opposition vote split, Mugabe still needed a majority to avoid a runoff, and what's the difference between rigging an election to get 50% in a two-way election or a three-way election in all honesty?

Here's a Zimbabwe diaspora message board discussing the election: some are hardcore MDC, some are hardcore pro-Mugabe, some want to start a war if the result doesn't go their way, and some are spreading crazy rumors like what Citzen Al posted about.

http://newzim.proboards86.com/index.cgi?board=general

[Harry Hayfield]

Well, thanks to that forum we do appear to have a date. 8.00am tomorrow Zimbabwe time (7.00am BST / 2.00am EDT) we should get some results.

[afleitch]

Well, thanks to that forum we do appear to have a date. 8.00am tomorrow Zimbabwe time (7.00am BST / 2.00am EDT) we should get some results.

Robert Mugabe will be confirmed as the winner. That is what the 'result' was always going to be from the onset. How people vote and the final result are two completely different systems.

I pray that I am wrong however.

[Joe Republic]

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lol

[Meeker]

The ZEC is releasing results on TV one district at a time... which means this is going to take quite a while. Right now it's MDC 25, Zanu 26. They seem to have a habit of calling one or two for one party, and then one or two for the other for the other party so as to keep it balanced, maybe so as to avoid big protests. Army is on high alert

[Michael Z]

Well, thanks to that forum we do appear to have a date. 8.00am tomorrow Zimbabwe time (7.00am BST / 2.00am EDT) we should get some results.

Robert Mugabe will be confirmed as the winner. That is what the 'result' was always going to be from the onset. How people vote and the final result are two completely different systems.

I pray that I am wrong however.

If this happens, there are going to be riots that will put Kenya in the shade.

[afleitch]

Well, thanks to that forum we do appear to have a date. 8.00am tomorrow Zimbabwe time (7.00am BST / 2.00am EDT) we should get some results.

Robert Mugabe will be confirmed as the winner. That is what the 'result' was always going to be from the onset. How people vote and the final result are two completely different systems.

I pray that I am wrong however.

If this happens, there are going to be riots that will put Kenya in the shade.

The army will just gun them down. Mugabe knows no-one outside will do anything to stop them. Not South Africa and certainly not us.

[Michael Z]

Well, thanks to that forum we do appear to have a date. 8.00am tomorrow Zimbabwe time (7.00am BST / 2.00am EDT) we should get some results.

Robert Mugabe will be confirmed as the winner. That is what the 'result' was always going to be from the onset. How people vote and the final result are two completely different systems.

I pray that I am wrong however.

If this happens, there are going to be riots that will put Kenya in the shade.

The army will just gun them down. Mugabe knows no-one outside will do anything to stop them. Not South Africa and certainly not us.

True, it might be more comparable to the recent Rangoon uprisings. Or worse, what happened in Burma in '88. Still, there's clearly a lot of anger towards Zanu-PF, even in their heartland.

It is definitely a shame, even disgraceful, that South Africa and other neighbouring countries have done little to nothing to stop the human rights abuses in Zimbabwe.

[Silent Hunter]

The army will just gun them down. Mugabe knows no-one outside will do anything to stop them. Not South Africa and certainly not us.

We can't exactly intervene militarily, since we need airspace permission and we won't get it.

The sooner Mugabe is out of power, the better. What are the MDC like, policy wise?

[Hash]

I hope that any candidate that is not Mugabe wins.

The Economist had an interesting article on the election BTW.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

So, how do you think Mugabe wins this time?  Arrest his opponent?  Invalidate opposing votes?  Have 202 people vote in alphabetical order?

[minionofmidas]

So, how do you think Mugabe wins this time?  Arrest his opponent?  Invalidate opposing votes?  Have 202 people vote in alphabetical order?

Declare the results to be, Mugabe 79%, Tsvangirai 21%.
Everybody knows they're ficticious numbers out of a hat, of course, but then everybody knows the MDC's statements in the thread opener are fictitious numbers out of a hat as well. Nobody knows what the election's results are, and nobody cares.

[Hash]

So, how do you think Mugabe wins this time?  Arrest his opponent?  Invalidate opposing votes?  Have 202 people vote in alphabetical order?

No, cemetery votes.

[StateBoiler]

It is definitely a shame, even disgraceful, that South Africa and other neighbouring countries have done little to nothing to stop the human rights abuses in Zimbabwe.

They're p*ssies. What did you expect?

From The Times of South Africa.

http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=736745

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[Dan the Roman]

So, how do you think Mugabe wins this time?  Arrest his opponent?  Invalidate opposing votes?  Have 202 people vote in alphabetical order?

Declare the results to be, Mugabe 79%, Tsvangirai 21%.
Everybody knows they're ficticious numbers out of a hat, of course, but then everybody knows the MDC's statements in the thread opener are fictitious numbers out of a hat as well. Nobody knows what the election's results are, and nobody cares.

Not actually true. Part of the deal Mbeki worked out requires each polling booth to post their results. All of the results therefore have been posted and in public domain since Sunday, and most MPs knew their results then. The opposition has been taking pictures of them. That said the 191 seats thing was BS. MDC-T should win around 105 or so seats, MDC-M 10, and Zanu in the low 90s.

The problem in this election is neither the voting(which was generally free for a third world country and much better than 2000, 2002, or 2005), or the local counts. The problem here is tabulation at the ZEC. Nevertheless, because of the public results, the ZEC has yet to release results that reverse the outcomes recorded on the polling booths in any seats(though they have not been shy about inflating Zanu majorities, probably to rig the Presidential race - see Joyce Mujuru in Mt. Pleaseant whose majority went from 4500 to 10000.)

The interesting thing is that so far

[ottermax]

I noticed that the vote seems to be stronger for the MDC compared to 2005 this year using the current ZEC results compared with Adam Carr's. Joyce Mujuru won 90% last time, this time it's more like 70%, still high, but still a 20% swing.

[Colin]

Of course if there is a large win by Mugabe there is the possibility, quite high, of riots or mass protests against the regime. In that case Mugabe probably will call in the Army and just shoot the protesters. This however can go two ways. If the Army is still loyal to Mugabe nothing will change he will continue to hold power and tighten his grip further. If the Army is having its doubts about Mugabe you could have a situation akin to Ceausescu's demise in 1989. The Army aiding the protesters to create a pseudo-coup situation where a group of "reformist" ZANU-PF officials are put in charge of the country as some sort of transitional government. I would actually think number two is more likely. I've heard rumours that Solomon Mujuru, former head of the Army and an old ZANU stalwart with alot of support within the Army, was either secretly backing Simba Makoni or taking a wait and see approach concerning his loyalty to Mugabe.

I don't know I just have this feeling that even the Army and security forces think Mugabe's a joke now. The financial crash is finally starting to affect, in some way, their assets, the one thing that has kept them loyal.

[Dan the Roman]

From the rumors flying around it is highly doubtful that Mugabe will "win" outright. While there was talk of rigged figures giving him 52%, it looks likely that the margin by which he lost(55-36 according to South African observers), means that the best that Zanu can do is to try and push MT below 50%. The numbers I have heard bandied about are MT 48 RM 42 SM 10.

Solomon Mujuru was backing a Makoni, mainly because he wants to jettison Mugabe but keep his farm, as well as a multi-million dollar mining empire. That won't happen if the MDC wins, and therefore he will likely back Mugabe for now in exchange for a promise to step down. This does raise an interesting point. If Simba Makoni were leading all of the results would have been released because the army would have pushed out Mugabe on Sunday. The threat of an MDC victory is making them rally around Mugabe in my view.