Zimbabwe 2008 Elections

[ag]

There is a decent summary of results on www.sokwanele.com

At least for the parliamentary results they provide two partial counts: one based on the official ZEC result, another is a partial count based on the independent tally of the polling place results. Interestingly enough, they don't disagree that much: in terms of who leads where, at least, I found one district where there is some disagreement on which MDC faction is ahead. I may have missed a few more, but it shouldn't be much. Where there is a huge difference, is what gets reported: ZEC reports 89 districts, there is independent count on 129, but there is at least one report only on 157 districts (out of a total of 210).  It seems ZEC is trying to (more or less honestly) report districts in such a manner, so that there is a roughly similar proportion of those going for MDC and for ZANUPF. The problem is, they may soon run out of the ZANU districts

Obviously, especially the unofficial count is incomplete, and there would be innocent explanations to minor changes (presumably, independent activists would have harder access to hostile areas), but I'd expect things to be roughly that way in the end (assuming no shennanigans)

Keep in mind, that MDC has split before these elections. The official title is with a minority group, headed by Arthur Mutambara. They've been largely wiped out this time (in the presidential race they supported Simba Makoni).  The main MDC is on the ballot under the title of MDC-Tsvangirai (MDC-T in what follows)

So, here is the count (subject to additional errors I've introduced):

MDC-T on both official and unofficial count 32 seats
MDC-T on unofficial count only 54 seats
MDC-T on official count only 7 seats
MDC on unofficial count/MDC-T on official count 1 seat
MDC on official count only 5 seats
MDC on unofficial count only 1 seat
ZANU-PF on both official and unofficial count 27 seats
ZANU-PF on unofficial count only 14 seats
ZANU-PF on official count only 16 seats

Total MDC-T 93 or 94
Total MDC 6 or 7
Total ZANU-PF 57

No results from 53 districts

[ag]

By province:

Bulawayo

MDC-T both 2
MDC-T unofficial 7
MDC-T official 1
MDC unofficial/MDC-T official 1
Total: MDC-T 10-11, MDC 0-1

Harare
MDC-T b 12
MDC-T u 12
MDC-T o 2
ZANU-PF b 1
Total MDC-T 26, ZANU-PF 1

Mashonaland Central
MDC-T b 2
ZANU-PF b 7
ZANU-PF u 3
ZANU-PF o 2
Total MDC-T 2, ZANU-PF 12

Mashonaland East
MDC-T b 2
MDC-T u 2
ZANU-PF b 9
ZANU-PF u 2
ZANU-PF o 4
Total MDC-T 4, ZANU-PF 15

Mashonaland West
MDC-T b 2
MDC-T u 5
ZANU-PF b 4
ZANU-PF u 1
ZANU-PF o 2
Total MDC-T 7, ZANU-PF 7

[ag]

Masvingo
MDC-T b 6
MDC-T u 7
MDC-T o 2
ZANU-PF b 3
ZANU-PF u 1
ZANU-PF o 1
Total MDC-T 15, ZANU-PF5

Matabeleland North
MDC-T u 2
MDC u 1
Total MDC-T 2, MDC 1

Matabeleland South
MDC o 5
MDC-T u 1
ZANU-PF o 1
Total MDC 5, MDC-T 1, ZANU-PF 1

Manicaland
MDC-T b 4
MDC-T u 13
MDC-T o 1
ZANU-PF b 1
ZANU-PF u 4
Total MDC-T 18, ZANU-PF 5


Midlands
MDC-T b 2
MDC-T u 5
MDC-T o 1
ZANU-PF b 2
ZANU-PF u 3
ZANU-PF o 6
Total MDC-T 8, ZANU-PF 11

[minionofmidas]

So, how do you think Mugabe wins this time?  Arrest his opponent?  Invalidate opposing votes?  Have 202 people vote in alphabetical order?

Declare the results to be, Mugabe 79%, Tsvangirai 21%.
Everybody knows they're ficticious numbers out of a hat, of course, but then everybody knows the MDC's statements in the thread opener are fictitious numbers out of a hat as well. Nobody knows what the election's results are, and nobody cares.

Not actually true. Part of the deal Mbeki worked out requires each polling booth to post their results. All of the results therefore have been posted and in public domain since Sunday, and most MPs knew their results then. The opposition has been taking pictures of them. That said the 191 seats thing was BS. MDC-T should win around 105 or so seats, MDC-M 10, and Zanu in the low 90s.

The problem in this election is neither the voting(which was generally free for a third world country and much better than 2000, 2002, or 2005), or the local counts. The problem here is tabulation at the ZEC. Nevertheless, because of the public results, the ZEC has yet to release results that reverse the outcomes recorded on the polling booths in any seats(though they have not been shy about inflating Zanu majorities, probably to rig the Presidential race - see Joyce Mujuru in Mt. Pleaseant whose majority went from 4500 to 10000.)

The interesting thing is that so far

I was merely being cynical and pessimistic, and had no idea whether I'd be right.

From what it looks like right now... MDC are the bigger lying scoundrels by a decent margin. Going back to the kind of news coverage we got at the very beginning of Mugabe's isolation (you know, the botched nationalization etc) ... this shouldn't, actually, be surprising. Mind you, Tsvangirai will win the runoff... if the votes are counted as approximately fairly as in the first round. Interesting times ahead...

[Silent Hunter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7323667.stm

Zanu-PF sources are saying possible run-off.

[minionofmidas]

As does everybody else except the MDC.

Btw... I just wanted to repost this one... user comment at the Zimbabwe Guardian... just to show you the main reasons for Mugabe's continued support. Notice that there are pro-MDC comments at the site as well. (hardly necessary to point out that Mugabe doesn't get votes on account of his nonexistent awesomeness, but still.)




"The current gvt was attempting to fight an economic war with the white world under the theme
Be ur own bosses and when white foreigners come to ur country, they shd be equal partners with you or under yourself, not the status quo where you have convinced urself that unonoshanda pamurungu.

Liberate urself from that colonial mentality, if u cant liberate urself then someone else will help u out.

There is no greater sin on this planet than that of ignorance. What have zimbabweans not gone thru that people wish to give up the revolution at this eleventh hour?

We cant bring back the british thru the back door, let them come in thru the front door, with all of africa watching.

Be careful of what you are wishing for - more specifically take a look at Iraq & Afghanistan and tell me if the people there are better off under the occupation of the british & its allies. If people believe things are bad now in Zimbabwe, wait till the puppet gets power and they will learn the hard way - you will simply be installing another Musharaf in Zimbabwe whom you can do nothing about because he`ll be an ally of west.

You wont remove him from power and all the natural resources will be siphoned from zim by MNC for the enjoyment of their nationals. Look what Chiluba did to Zambia`s minerals.

People will only get a temporary reprieve, but the long term will be disastrous.

At the moment though, it cannot be claimed to be people`s wishes, we all kno the Simba Makoni project was put together by the US to deceive the rural electorate, thats why he was insisting to be Zanu PF, there is also an element of tribalism in the way the votes were cast which is a recipe of divisive mechanism devised by the west.

Makoni comes from manicaland, & vana wasu are known for being power hungry which is why they voted for anything smelling of wasu.(I`m wasu myself & i dont hide the ills within my tribe, look who are the main men behind the project especially diasporans , Alex Magaisa & Musekiwa Makwanya both wasu`s), Dabengwa is ndebele which is why the byo vote both urban & rural went to opposition parties (destroying zanu pf from within). Masvingo also known for being another tribalistic region (wezhira), followed Mbudzi. so u see, the vote was never freer or fairer even to zanu pf itself, add the economic sanctions brought about by the opposition.

personally I believe this western style of democracy is not fit for purpose in Zim, it creates divisions in society and may bring about results that hurt the very people who are meant to benefit. Our african way of life is not compatible with western type democracy.

What would those who perished in Chimoio, nyadzonya et al think of us zimbabweans after all those sacrifices, people succumb to economic sanctions and hand back zim to colonialists?

Won`t that be an act of cowardice of the highest order? Zanu PF has made mistakes during its rule, and yes change was needed as of yesterday - but not the change represented by mdc. It must be change authored by zimbabweans not thru whitehall. Thats where the pill becomes bitter to swallow.

Do zimbabweans succumb to sanctions and bring back the union jack flag by proxy? Ndipo pane nyaya."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funny thing there of course is the fact that for much of his reign Mugabe had closer ties to Whitehall than Smith did for most of his.

[minionofmidas]

The funny thing there of course is the fact that for much of his reign Mugabe had closer ties to Whitehall than Smith did for most of his.

You mean, post 66?

The funny thing, to me, is that for this guy, Whitehall still occupies the place in the world that most people reserve for the Pentagon these days.

[Silent Hunter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7325286.stm

More sources than a dissertation...

[ag]

From what it looks like right now... MDC are the bigger lying scoundrels by a decent margin.

1. I wouldn't go that far. They are doing their job - trying to create the sense of inevitability. The problem is, that irrespective of the actual voting results, eventually the outcome will be determined by the willingness of a certain number of people (in the military, in the security services, in the bureaucracy, in the electoral commissions) to jump the Mugabe ship. Conditional on all of them staying loyal to the boss, the actual voting results would not have mattered much: if the army is willing to shed blood, it's hard to do anything about it. MDC has to make them think it's time to jump - then they might actually count the votes and let whatever happens happen. But for that you have to start the panic among the officials - that's what they've been trying to do.

2. What do we know beyond doubt:

A. MDC (or a faction of it) has taken every single seat in Bulawayo and all but one seat in Harare - in the big cities the sky has indeed fallen.
B. Most smaller urban centers (look for constituencies w/ names like XYZ Central and UJH Urban) seem to be going w/ MDC as well, even in many parts of Mashonaland.
C. The bulk of Mashonaland is going ZANU-PF - no surprize here - but the margins are inflated compared to independent counts. Not necessarily any problem w/counting: chances are, MDC and independent observers simply couldn't make it to particularly ZANU precincts to get the info - now, that's indicative of other problems, of course, but not criminal in itself.
D. Strange things seem to be happening in rural areas, where there is little independent verification. Thus, in Matabeleland the ZEC has just come up w/ a number of ZANU-PF victories - all in districts without independent verification. ZANU-PF is not too popular in Matabeleland (that's a major understatement, in fact), but MDC is more equally split there then elsewhere, so, perhaps, some ZANU-PF victories are real. Still, Matabeleland seems to be doing strange things: very late and incomplete reporting by both sides, almost all districts having only one report, etc., etc.

3. To sum up, MDC might be going a bit out of the way in proclaiming its victory - but, honestly, that's their only chance. If they merely claim the truth (they are somewhat ahead), they will get nothing for sure. ZEC isn't obviously criminal at this point - but, clearly, at the very least, quite incompetent (they should have been posting precinct-by-precinct results, and where on earth are the presidential counts). Furthermore, they clearly choose the constituencies to create the impression of a close run (they report results almost as follows: ZMZMZZMMZZMM - ask your statistics teacher, how likely is such a sequence). Possible hanky-panky in rural areas - but too early to claim for sure. The independent talliers are doing an important job, but they should have been posting the precinct results as well.

4. Mugabe is not popular: w/ all the advantages of the incumbency unencumbered w/ liberal niceties he is getting barely over 40% of the vote.  In fact, if he were truly supported by 40% of voters, he'd be safe - in a Zimbabwe-style polity, getting 10%-15% of "extra" votes isn't a problem. It's unquestionable, that he still has some not insignificant support - but popular he is not.

[ag]

It's interesting. They are down to the last 7 seats in Mashonaland - and in 2 of those, on the unofficial results, MDC-T should be ahead. They are mostly down w/ Midlands. The big gaps in reporting are in Harare and Matabeleland. At present, the official results are 79 ZANU-PF, 76 MDC-T, 5 MDC. So, eiter they start reporting a larger share of MDC victories, or smthg funny starts happening.

[minionofmidas]

From what it looks like right now... MDC are the bigger lying scoundrels by a decent margin.

1. I wouldn't go that far.

It's called hyperbole.
I agree with most of your first paragraph.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh, absolutely. And even his genuine support no doubt includes quite a lot who see him as the lesser evil, or just as the devil you know.

[minionofmidas]

Two things to point out about the ZESN figures (49-42-8).

This is not an organization close to ZANU.

It is, however, only the result from a sample (pretty large, and thought to be representative) of precincts - Tsvangirai could be over 50 on ballots cast (however fairly these were cast and however fair, or rather not, the playing field was) if it is just slightly off.

Makoni has pretty much gone on record saying that a runoff is likely, and basically endorsed Tsvangirai, by the way.

Oh, and as to the data release practices of the election commission: I think they've more or less admitted that they're not releasing the figures "as they come", but are releasing them peacemeal with a view to "preserving peace" etc... which would explain the sequence.

[afleitch]

If Mugabe wants 'out' then he should allow Tsvangirai to poll over 50% and then leave the country. Let's take a straw poll. Which country will he piss off to?

EDIT: It appears the MDC are toning down the rhetoric on that front.

[ag]

Districts still to officially report (done by quick eye-balling of the results on sokwanele.com):

Bulawayo - 2 (no unofficial report in 1, MDC-T leads unofficially in 1)
Harare - 10 (no unofficial report in 2, MDC-T leads in
Mashonaland Central - 2 (no report in 1, ZANU-PF leads in 1)
Mashonaland East - 1 (ZANU-PF leads in 1)
Mashonaland West - 4 (no report in 3, MDC-T leads in 1)
Masvingo - 4 (no report in 1, MDC-T leads in 3)
Matabeleland North - 10 (no report in 4, MDC-T leads in 5, MDC leads in 1)
Matabeleland South - 6 (no report in 6)
Manicaland - 9 (no report in 1, MDC-T leads in 5, ZANU-PF leads in 3)
Midlands - 1 (MDC-T leads in 1)

The remaining 161 districts have reported as

ZANU-PF 79
MDC-T 77
MDC 5

On the basis of which, my forecast for the final count is:

MDC-T 113-116
ZANU-PF 88-91
MDC 6

Considering the circumstances, this wouldn't be bad.

[Silent Hunter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7325524.stm

I don't know whether Mugabe has the support of the army any more. That could be crucial.

[Hash]

According to Radio-Canada/CBC the ZANU-PF has "recognized" defeat and apparently both parties would be working out the transfer of powers. Little word about the potential runoff.

[ag]

The ZEC is still true to form, though they've reported most of Harare - all for MDC-T (w/ the sole pre-existing exception of Harare South). I am not quite clear how, but ZANU-PF still has a slight lead, but there are, basically, no obvious ZANU-PF districts left to report (w/ the possible exception of the 4 districts in Mashonaland). BTW, I had misreported on Matabeleland North before.

Districts still to officially report

Bulawayo - 2 (no unofficial report in 1, MDC-T leads unofficially in 1)
Harare - 3 (MDC-T leads in 3)
Mashonaland Central - 1 (no report in 1)
Mashonaland East - none
Mashonaland West - 4 (no report in 3, MDC-T leads in 1)
Masvingo - 1 (MDC-T leads in 1)
Matabeleland North - 10 (no report in 7, MDC-T leads in 2, MDC leads in 1)
Matabeleland South - 6 (no report in 6)
Manicaland - 5 (no report in 1, MDC-T leads in 4)
Midlands - 1 (MDC-T leads in 1)

The total of 176 districts have reported:

ZANU-PF 86
MDC-T 85
MDC 5

[Silent Hunter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7326532.stm

Opposition have declared victory in presidential race.

Have you ever heard of two sets of results for the same election being announced in the past?

[minionofmidas]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7326532.stm

Opposition have declared victory in presidential race.

Have you ever heard of two sets of results for the same election being announced in the past?

All the time.

[Silent Hunter]

Zanu-PF has officially lost its majority:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7326968.stm

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Excellent.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I suspect that the delay in the official tally is due to Mugabe trying to decide whether he'd rather lose in the first round or the second.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The rumours floating around are that Mugabe is trying to negotiate a prison-free exit.

[ottermax]

I'm rather excited. The final election results give the House of Assembly to the MDC. Now the Senate and Presidential results need to come out. I guess they are releasing things based on the race rather than by precincts. This may take awhile. I'm predicting that the Presidential results come out later this week, maybe Friday or Saturday, possibly tomorrow, but it could be as late as Sunday. I just don't see how they can keep it from being released before Saturday. At least Zimbabweans aren't violent people (They have the highest literacy rate in Africa, something like 95%, despite the penury there, so they're rather educated).